Fully agree. The chances of Greece avoiding a default and exit from the Euro seem to be evaporating.
So, I seem to have promised to present how I’ve been trading since I started making solid gains. I was thinking about maybe starting a new thread on the subject. It would make more sense and be cleaner.
I will probably keep posting thoughts here from time to time. However, it seems appropriate to start a new thread for the purpose of presenting what seems to be the approach to trading I finally settled on. (I know I’ve said that before, but this time both account growth and the passage of time confirm it)
Here’s the link to the new thread: 301 Moved Permanently
I’ll start posting some material tomorrow although I suspect I’ll never be such a frequent poster again as in the past. I believe Matt is right about the inverse relationship between posting frequency and profitability/skills as a trader.
I see the latest rock star, David Jefferson has gone the way that many before him have gone. I stopped following his thread quite a while ago when I realized where things were heading.
For those few of you out there who wish to actually learn how to trade, beware of gurus. Period. Learn to trade on your own by finding the golden nuggets that are hid around here. That’s what I did and the best thing is that once you know how to, nobody can ever take it away from you.
That sounds like a healthy view 
I stumbled across his thread when it was very new, otherwise it would have escaped me as well.
First half of the year has been very good to me. Then summer vacation and travel got in the way so I haven’t geared up for trading the second half yet. I will prepare everything this Friday/Saturday and then I’ll be up and running again next week.
The area I’m focusing extra energy on now is money/risk management. I would like to improve my rather standard techniques in that area since it has a considerable effect on the bottom line.
And how is everything coming along for you, a fellow rare visitor these days?
Yes, I’d like to discuss risk management for a bit. I suspect this is an area where retail traders are much farther behind institutional traders than in most other aspects of trading.
As you may recall I’ve never been quite able to let go of the Kelly formula and after having read more or less everything I could find in relation to it, I’m now working to implement a fractional Kelly approach in my risk management.
Of course the pits are many and quite deep as soon as aggressive approaches are concerned, but I’ve decided to go ahead and use my version of the approach in my live account, albeit I’m only risking profits, none of my own funds.
I update the formula after every closed position to make sure it always reflects the most up to date calculation. I cut the suggested risk in half to compensate for statistical error.
I will post more in depth on my thoughts around this subject as time allows.
Yes, the blip on the radar is one of the things I like the most about the higher TF. News events and big players pushing price around is of relatively little significance.
But the 10-20R trades are of course much fewer due to the wider stops. Holding out for bigger R multiples is something I have to work on.
there’s always next week! 
appreciate the good discussion around here.
Yes, I got out at 0.9854 today and coming home tonight I see a major reversal so that was good timing.
Haven’t missed your response btw, I’ll answer in more detail as time allows.
I don’t find much time to update this thread anymore, but since I have some extra time available for almost two weeks, something which is quite unusual for me, I’ll make an attempt.
So naturally I’m spending it studying my trading. And suddenly it dawned on me, a simplification! It’s still new so I’ll test drive it alongside my normal chart setup, but it appears very logical.
A short reiteration of how I trade first: I trade 8H charts. I use the Ichimoku cloud to decide directional bias. I also use the previous weeks pivot and the kijun sen. If a long bar setup forms above or below the cloud, kijun sen and pivot I’ll consider going long and vice versa.
This approach works. The idea is that by forcing price to be above or below the past weeks pivot you guarantee that the trend is not in retracement or reversal. The kijun sen essentially does the same.
One thing that the pivot nor the kijun sen do is show if price has momentum. Another thing that hasn’t been optimal is that there has been no KISS method of exiting.
And then it just struck me: STARC bands. I tried them immediately of course and they appear to do exactly what I want. In an uptrend, if price closes above or very near the upper band you can expect price to keep rising since this shows momentum in price. Likewise, if price, in an uptrend, hits the lower band and then forms a reversal bar setup, this gives a high probability that price will move in the direction of the trend again.
In an uptrend, the lower band becomes a natural trailing stop that often allows to trail for a good R multiple before it gets hit. (of course you only move the trailing stop in one direction).
I’m noticing other things as well, for instance an uptrend will seldom or never reverse until price hits the lower band, meaning that even if price no longer climbs the upper band, as long as the lower one has not been touched it is still quite valid to look for good long bar setups.
I will study this further, but it does appear as if this may be the last simplification I’ve been searching for. With the stop trailing included my entire trading approach is now largely mechanical.
Btw, I use 5, 15, 1.33 as settings for the STARC bands.
A very happy 2013 to you too Matt!
2012 was excellent, let’s see if we can top that this year
I haven’t spent much time here on Babypips for some time. As my trading has progressed I have found BP becomes a distraction and seldom a productive one at that. I also don’t have that much time in my personal life either, it’s full of work, gf, friends, training etc. Just like life should be.
Anyway, I had some time tonight for once and thought I’d check up briefly what’s been going on at BP since I’ve been absent.
I wish I had written a post before so I could prove my “I told you so”… anyway it apparently turns out that InnerCircleTrader, aka ICT wasn’t the real deal…
To me this was obvious from pretty early on but nowadays I lack the interest to speak up or make a fuss. Anyway, I think there’s a very valuable lesson here for everyone to learn. This guy was just the latest in a LOOOOONG line of guru’s to show up here and blow people away only to crash and burn, some quickly and others first after quite some time.
So, the lesson is this: THERE ARE NO GURU’S. PERIOD.
Fox Mulder used to say: “Trust no one”. He’s right, that’s the only attitude you can and should use on forums like BP and others. What people on forums seem to have trouble understanding is that on a forum anyone can be whoever/whatever they want. That’s the big difference between the internet and IRL.
After all, I’m a dentist and a damn good one too actually. My patients in the real world know almost for cetrain that I indeed am a dentist since they see me work and be at home with all the equipment at the clinic etc. How do YOU know that I am really a dentist?
I can google the answers to any control question you can think of, I can photoshop pics, steal an identity etc.
My point is, do as Fox Mulder in forums and you’ll be better off. Except for with me of course, I’m 100% the real deal
That was one of my fav TV series
Yep , Internet is a great tool, for researching things , but as you said beware the snake oil salesman. I just process information and use it to my advantage or disadvantage, Then try and pass what i think is worthy along to others. i am far from a great trader but do well enough on my own . I think most for whatever reasons think this is something different than the rest of the world.
Anyway my 2 cents… Trade safe and sane. Ken
As the year draws to a close I’ll offer some Holidays reading for those of you out there interested in getting out of the rat race. This is one of the best books I’ve read this year.
Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert T Kiyosaki
Currently the book can be found here: http://paulasset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/RICH-DAD-POOR-DAD.pdf
Wishing everyone a Happy New 2014
Allow me to ask please, Since you started the thread, are you now profitable using your system ?
Yes, I have been profitable for a couple of years but this year has been the big breakthrough. My trading methods have evolved from what you’ll find in this thread though.
I know this is mainly a forex forum, but after a few years, those few that aren’t long gone, often find that just trading spot forex with a retail broker might not be the end of the journey.
I still do my active trading with Oanda, but added to that I also monthly put money into a stock account which has very favorable tax rules in Sweden. Not so clever to put all your eggs in one basket is the idea.
Trading stocks however is not like trading forex. I had to find a less active way to trade stocks. Just buying the lowest fee index fund could be an option, but after a LOT of searching I found what I was looking for.
Joel Greenblatt: The Little Book That Beats The Market
Read it, it may well be the most profitable thing you ever do.