Only EUR/GBP still actice, the other two were stopped out today when the S/L were hit.
I feel that it’s very important now to analyze this and to try to learn from what were two losses.
That analysis will follow in the next post.
Let’s start with the pair that I felt had the best odds.
Why was my analysis wrong?
Zooming out on daily shows that the pair is forming higher lows and lower highs: the october/november low was lower than that of feb/march.
At the same time the highs are lower as time progresses.
This is an asymmetrical triangle forming on a huge scale. Triangles usually break through the more horisontal of the lines, in this case it would mean that a breakout to the south is the more likely result.
However, that outcome is not 100% as with everything else forex.
One mistake I made was not to take the 4H signal. That would have resulted in a profitable trade. By waiting for the daily to form the signal, price moved a great distance before I entered. In fact, it was already getting close to the lower Bollinger band.
That caused me to have to place a large S/L and then an equally large TP since they are related.
The candle pattern itself was valid and of good quality in the EUR/USD case.
Also for reasons mentioned above, the peak and trough pattern had almost, as we indeed learned, reached a new trough by the time I entered. When selling of course one wants to enter as close to the peak as possible.
Summarizing:
Don’t sell when price is already close to the lower Bollinger band
Don’t be afraid to enter a good 4H signal
Don’t enter when the peak/trough pattern suggest it might be bad timing.
Don’t blame swine flu for my own poor trading
Ironically eur/jpy went on the way I previously thought.
When that first buy stop didn’t get hit, I fell in the trap of wanting to see what was not there - a candle pattern.
This trade should not have been taken as there was no good quality candlestick pattern in the first place.
What seems to be happening now is that price is breaking out of the down channel since april 6, and might resume the overall uptrend again.
If it weren’t for swine flu, perhaps what is happening now would have happened earlier and hit my first buy stop - but that’s only speculation.
Lesson here: patience, always wait for the good quality patterns. ( right now there’s actually a morning star forming on the lower Bollinger band, plus the peak/trough pattern has just made a higher high.)
So now my bias on this pair is long again. You may therefore want to go short… 
Start balance was 100%
Current:
two losers and one still pending:
current balance after the two losers: 97.75%
Down 2.25% since start
No new trades tonight.
Going to think the method and my trading over some more in the coming days.
Maybe no trades until next week, we’ll see.
I learned something new yesterday, which might be useful in the future.
There’s a third party software that one can use with Oanda. This is approved by Oanda and makes it possible to run robots, trailing stops and indicators not normally possible on Oanda. Plus all pending orders are hidden from Oanda until they’re activated. Apparently the software also works with FXCM.
Very interesting. Not for me right now as I’m still struggling with trading profitably etc, but in the future.
Remember, I have no affiliation whatsoever to this company and nothing to gain from mentioning them. I didn’t know of this and I suspect that it’s unknown to many others out there, hence I’m sharing this newfound knowledge. I haven’t tested it at all, so maybe it’s total crap - I don’t know.
If interested one can read the thread on Oanda’s forum, it’s easy to find. Software is named fxspyder.
I seem to be moving in the direction of tymen. Maybe I’ll end up somewhere near his method in the end.
Anyway, the STARC indicator is a clever tool to keep you from entering in high risk places.
Well worth a look and a try.
I might add it to the thing that I’m still working on. Trading seems to be everlasting work in progress for me. But I do feel that real progress is being made.
I’m looking at ways to get a much better Risk to Reward ratio than the current Macgyver method can offer.
And (cursing in church almost here) I have to admit that S/R just doesn’t charm me like I wish it would. Either the S/R line holds, or it breaks. You never know which really, just like you never know if it’s going to be retested or even reretested before price moves off in the decided direction. As you can sense, I’m not crazy in love with S/R. but since it works well for the pro’s, I guess it’s my head that isn’t screwed on right.
Anyhow, I’d like to maximize R:R, which means reducing stops a lot. If possible, I’d like to try building my method without using S/R (tymen has managed to do this, so it must be possible) and I’d like to find a high probability method of identifying reversals very early on.
That is what i’m working on.
Just imagine what a 1:4 or better R:R plus close to 50% win rate would result in…
I learned a lot since I first started to look at forex and learning really speeded up when I found Babypips. In the last few weeks since I went live, I’ve learned even more about myself. Things that shocked me. My discipline immediately went overboard.
I’ve taken a small break to think that over carefully. I guess it’s hard to shake out the get rich quick thoughts. After in that fashion having reduced my account I have understood that either I get my act together, or I might as well just quit forex before the whole account goes.
Luckily I started just a silly small account so no damage other than psychological. That damage though was substantial, but of course completely necessary.
I added these lines to remind myself what lack of discipline will result in as well as to make anyone reading this aware that I am certainly no forex superman. But I have the resolve to stay in this until I make it and become consistently profitable.Now, let the trading begin
Hi,
I’m in this situation of lack of discipline, it costed me alot of pips. If making pips is important, discipline is as important if not more. I know these facts but I cant seem to get my self to obey them,I have tried many methods but none of them seem to work for me. I wish some one starts a thread about discipline, I would like to hear form you also how you where able to do that.
Many Thanks
Jado.
Well then start a thread … LOL , That has been my one biggest issue myself. I am working through it. But would never in my life thought I could have a issue with self control… But it is a real problem . Those who never have it can’t understand the frustrations involved. My biggest problem in getting mine under control was a lack of structure in my trading strategy. I would just watch the price action and take trades off the way price was flowing. But every trade was a different animal some good for a couple of pips other the top or bottom of a new trend. So first you need to get a strategy that has a set structure. In other words take certain signals to enter and have others when you know it has failed. Without that you have know way to teach self discipline. Then write the rules down and follow them. You will still struggle but if you don’t give up you will get better with time. But without a structured plan you have no hope, because you can always tell yourself maybe this maybe that. There are no maybes in trading , it is do or die.Then one day you will wonder what the problem ever was. I hope this helps you as I am Just now working myself out of these issues. I don’t want to change the focus of this thread so if you want to talk more maybe PM me. Good Luck Ken
I guess it’s just like smoking or any other unwanted behaviour: there’s no pill, book, or any other quick fix. The only thing that works is resolve.
For me the change came when I realized that misbehaving without exception led to losses.
I just made up my mind that I’m going to stop that behaviour.
That being said, it’s always going to be something I actively have to work at.
But you’re right, discipline is key and you’re more than welcome to start a thread about it. I agree that it’s a much needed thread.
Thanks,
I think what we need is a support group, if we talke about it with others and take thier input it might help. I know allot of people try to quit bad habits and they find success when they find support
Here is the thread:D
http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/22583-discipline-trading.html
Jado
Cut and paste from CRB Trader Archive, [B]2000: Volume 9, No. 5
Fine Tuning Option Entries and Exits With Trading Bands[/B]:
[I]There are a variety of uses for STARCbands, but the most basic is to determine high and low risk buying or selling opportunities. If prices are near or at the upper bands (STARC+) it is a high-risk time to buy (establish a long position) and when prices are at or near the lower bands (STARC-) it is a high-risk time to sell (establish a short position). This does not mean that the market will automatically reverse direction once the bands are reached, but it increases the odds that the market will either bounce in the opposite direction or at least move sideways for several periods. This can be very important when a market is moving sharply either up or down and has been doing so for three or four bars as the impulse to chase the market becomes unbearable.
Often traders cannot resist the urge to buy or sell at these extremes only to have the position quickly go against them and stop them out. Invariably, the market will then resume its original direction, leaving the trader without a position and very frustrated. By noting the relationship of prices to the STARC bands, one can gauge the risk on either the short or long side.[/I]
I’m happy to have taken a closer look at STARC bands. I guess they work in the same manner as Elders Triple Screen system which took away the option of selling in a uptrend and vice versa.
STARCs do the opposite instead, which is perfect for a trader looking for the early signs of a reversal. STARCS aid in this by saying: “No, for the love of… don’t buy in this uptrend now, there’s a high risk that price may soon retrace or reverse. If you must trade, look for an opportunity to short.”
I’m seriously contemplating adding this indicator to what I’m working on.
Strangely, the MT4 indicators I found were set to other values than the standard for STARC, which is ATR 15, MA 6 and bands at 2 ATRs (although I feel 1.5 works better for my purposes)
I took three trades today all based on the new method I’m working on and all three were winners.
It’s a nice feeling when things work out once in a while
Discipline also worked nicely. On the first trade price went so close to my stop loss that I was sure it was hit, but I guess it turned one pipette before. The point is that before I would have itched to reach for the mouse to move the stop… yeah, sad but true.
But today no such desire. Progress. Like i said, nice.
I’m trying to really take to heart that when i place my stop, I do it with the knowledge that if price moves past it, then my setup has failed and I no longer want to hold that position. The psychological part is truly the hardest part in trading. I will not give up until I master it!
That’s the spirit ! When I use physical or mental stop-losses I tend to see it like golf you will have bad holes, move on swiftly to the next one.
But do you throw your keyboard and computer after being stopped out by one pip…thats the question i want to know the answer to.
Good Job o990l6mh!
I have in the past :D, but you soon learn that it don’t help and cost you more.
Thanks.
No, it’s more verbal abuse usually.
My old friend used to say: if physical violence doesn’t help, then use more. That doesn’t work so well on computers though.
Don’t forget to stay in physical shape. It’s easy to stare at the screen for hours.
I went for a run today, first in a far too long time.
Felt great. Mind and everything else work better.
Just to add.
Fourth consecutive win just closed. I did however close as soon as it went into some pips profit due to not wanting to babysit. It’s bedtime here. No, it’s past bedtime to be more precise.
Still, taking a profit is never wrong.
I checked the charts and it would have been a total winner if i had stayed in front of the screen. Nice.
The method I’m working on has led me into a lot of studying work and that’s what I’m doing every minute I can devote to forex.
The concept makes eerily much sense and yet it is very uncommon as i understand it. Still have a lot of studying and testing to do, but I will try to outline what I’ve learned once I’ve gotten that far.
A hint for anyone interested would be to study Volume Spread Analysis and combine it with candle formations, Bollinger Bands and STARC bands. That’s pretty much what I’m trying to put together, but who knows what the end result will be.
I am becoming increasingly convinced that volume does have a place in forex trading. Let’s see where I end up.