I don’t have that kind of capital yet
Yea, I get that concept. You’re right. The trend is your friend.
Okay, thanks for the extra details. It makes more sense now.
Another day, Another Backtest
I ran another backtest on GBP/USD since I had tweaked the settings of some indicators since then, and the results are basically the same
Out of 110 trades, 52 were losses
I stated recording the days it takes for a backtest, and over the course of 51 days, I traded on 13 of those days.
The results are the same in the sense that they were both carried out targeting around the same range (february 2024) and they both look the same
As you can see, there is a lot of red in this picture of my most recent backtest
In this picture of the previous one, there isn’t as much red but there were greater losses in this test. You can also see a backtest of EUR/USD where there aren’t as many losses.
But I think this may be due to the time period I decided to target when doing the backtest
Within those two lines are 52 trading days and as you can see, the market is very choppy
This is the picture of the time period I targeted for the EUR/USD backtest and as you can also see, the market is in a CLEAR uptrend for most of the days
So maybe the GBP/USD backtests are returning results below expectations because the market conditions aren’t optimal for the strategy.
Since the market is kinda choppy and moving sideways, I may not actually be trading with the current market trend.
On the bright side, the net loss I incurred from losing streaks wasn’t enough to completely wipe the account, with the worst on reaching -$414.
The highest losing streak on the previous one was 4 trades, which somehow ended up reaching -$541
It appears as if the new settings have reduced the number of losing trades but it has also made it miss some amazing trades which the old settings caught
What makes you think this video is recommendable for beginners?
Because it says beginners only
M1 time frame for beginners, good joke 
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I think Greg is rightly referring to the reality that trading on M1 charts is extremely inadvisable for beginners, that makes success terribly unlikely.
The person in the videos used M4.
Why don’t you recommend M1 for beginners?
Because of high noise and many transactions, in general everything under M15 you can call a fast trading. When you got driving license will you go to the Paris - Dakar Competition next day?
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As a passenger! (Do they have passengers? If not, then as a commentator. 
)
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they have a pilot but even pilot has to be experience
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Oh
Yeah, that is true
After my lacklustre GBP/USD backtests, I’ve started looking to add extra confirmations before I open trades. This is a list of all of them
Divergence
When indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic Oscillator) give results contrary to what is on the chart
The chart was making lower lows, which usually means the downtrend is going to continue. When the chart made these lower lows, the stochastic oscillator was making higher highs, signifying that a trend reversal was imminent.
Candlestick Patterns
I’m not sure, but that may be a Fair Value Gap (I say “may be” because I’ve seen one in its natural habitat before). There’s usually a bearish candlestick pattern as well on the level for the up fractal
Usually, there is a bullish candle stick. In this case, there is a Morning Star Engulfing
In this one, there was a bullish Marubozo
I’ll wait till I see about 2 of thess signals before I enter the trade
I have observed more confluences
In the first rectangle, there are 3 bullish candles (3 white soldiers) of equal size, which is an indication of bullish movement in the market.
In the second rectangle, there are 2 bearish candles, and the second candle has no wick at the bottom of it, which is a strong bearish sign. I’ve noticed that whenever I see good trades, there are strong candle stick patterns around the levels that I marked for the zones
The last signal is a divergence. The market is making lower highs, but the stochastic oscillator is making higher lows, which is a strong bullish sign and an indication that the market trend is about to reverse.
If anyone knows any other bullish and bearish chart patterns, let me know
I think I’ve optimised the strategy parameters to the max because any further tweaking in order to increase the win rate of the strategy will either lead to it not actually increasing the win rate or it misses AMAZING trades altogether.
Moving Average
9 SMA
28 LWMA, hlc/3(Typical Price)
200 EMA
Stochastic Oscillator
8 Slowing
16 %K
3 %D
Timeframes
Daily - Analysis
M6 - Confirmation
M2 - Confirmation
M1 - Entry
These may be the best settings because after comparing the results of the infamous first GBP/USD backtest to the 2nd one. I’ve noticed that the last 4 days of the 2nd coincide with the first 4 days of the 1st. The net loss at the end of those 4 days on the 1st backtest was -$66 while on the second one, the net profit was $321 Which is a very surprising difference.
But I think the biggest weakness of this strategy is highly liquid and volatile markets like crypto. What I usually do to find if a pair is good is go to the daily, pick a random day and see how many good trades I can find. I repeat this 3-5 times and if the winrate is less that 50%, it is most likely a bad pair. I did this for bitcoin and I only had about 1 good trade out of 4.
Maybe someday the best settings will be found for markets like cryptos but as for now, I’ll be focusing on forex unless somebody know of any crypto with forex-like movement.
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There are two problems, here: the first is that win-rate doesn’t necessarily determine whether or not it’s a “bad pair”; the second is that your sample size is WAY too small and has no statistical significance.
This signifies nothing. What matters is more like whether you have 100 good trades out of 400.
Sorry that I sound so critical! That’s not my reason for posting. It’s just that a few people have tried explaining this and related things to you, but you don’t yet seem to have taken them on board at all, and I’m sure we’re all actually trying to help you! 
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I understand the thing about my sample size being to small but when you’re strategy involves you seeing setups 99.9% of trading days, looking for trades on days that are far apart from each other should still allow you to draw the same conclusions you can from a backtest that spans over 200 trades.
But this style of thinking seems flawed and I can attest to this because randomly picking days may lead to me only picking the “bad eggs” thereby painting a false picture that I’ll then show other people and make them believe a lie that was created because I was getting unlucky.
While I can see the importance of extensive backtests spanning hundreds of trades, I still think that the strategy has some weaknesses that will show in small sample sizes that will only become more obvious when you test on a larger scale.
As for the part about the bad pair, that may have been an error on my end because using that same analogy, that would also make GBP/USD a bad pair as well according to the first backtest I did on it but I’ve now discover that the market conditions just weren’t favourable at the time and the indicators needed a bit of tweaking 
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The sooner you change your mind about that belief, the sooner you’ll be moving more reliably towards profitability (and I’m saying this as someone who thinks the principles of your system look good, and logical, and that you deserve to do well with it).
The problem with - excuse me for saying it bluntly - your current lack of appreciation of statistical significance and probability is partly the fact that it can lead you mistakenly to look no further at something that might actually turn out to work well, if only you had the knowledge, understanding, techniques and software (not expensive at all!) to analyse it adequately rather than “just guessing” (which is what you’re actually doing at the moment - sorry!!) 
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