Second trade of the day.
I only opened one this time cause I was scared but I still made 18 cents
I have made another interesting discovery
If the first trade of the day is a loss, it increases the chances of that day being a losing day
In this picture, the first trade of the day was a win and even though there were 3 losses, the day still ended with a profit of $156
In this picture, the first trade of the day was a loss even though there were 4 winning trades, the day still ended with a loss of $86
In this picture, the first trade of the day was a win but there were 7 losses that day so the day ended with a loss of $52
In this picture, the first trade was a winning one and even though there was one loss, there were two wins so today ended with a profit of 32 cents
This may be a coincidence, but what if it isn’t 
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Hmmm this is really interesting. Thanks for sharing all the details.
Does the trend of the day really impact the trading done at the 1m and 2m? Seems those time frames are so far apart.
And are you looking at the current day or previous day that’s closed?
It is. You must understand enough basic statistics to know this, really? You need that, to trade!
Interesting and good thread, and thanks for it, but don’t fool yourself about basics?
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Does the trend of the day really impact the trading done at the 1m and 2m? It seems those time frames are so far apart.
Yes
It does because you want to be trading with the overall trend so this will influence the kind of trades you will be taking that day
I believe this is called multi timeframe analysis(maybe)
I identify the trend on the daily. Let’s say the market is in an uptrend, you would only trade on days where the candle opens above all the moving averages
Now that the trend has been identified, you go to the 1M and wait for price to start trending downwards (price is below the 200 EMA)
But since the market is in an uptrend, it will want to continue going up, therefore increasing the chances of a reversal occurring on this downtrend
That’s how the trend of the day impacts the trades taken during that day
And are you looking at the current day or previous day that’s closed?
Both
You check where the previous day’s candle closed and where the current day’s candle opened so you can identify the trend
Hmmm
I don’t think I know enough of the basics
Could you please give more reasons on why this could be a coincidence because I think it it too but it just seems like it isn’t
It’s just that the sample size is too small, it may signify nothing - yet!
If you change the word “first” in that sentence to “second” or “third” or any other ordinal, it will still necessarily be equally true. That’s basic statistics for you …
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That is true
More interesting discoveries
I spotted a setup on EUR/USD and GBP/USD and entered a buy but I accidentally did it on my demo account.
I did this same thing yesterday and was so frustrated that I just let it play out and see what happened
On the EUR/USD, it hit my stop loss for a loss of 66 cents.
On GBP/USD, it hit my take profit for a profit of $1.36 but when it did this, price went and hit the level I marked for my take profit, which means I could have made $1.66 if I did this on my main account and used no stop loss but immediately it hit my TP, both markets crashed during news
This isn’t about the news but the fact that since the TP and SL levels are given by indicators, setting either off by 1 pip is the difference between profit and a stop out
If I had actually aimed for the recent high, which is what most people would have done (including me), the TP would have been off by 27 points but it was set just right. Almost like it was meant to be
BUY SIGNAL
- Daily candle opens above the 9SMA, 28 LWMA set to typical price and 200EMA
- In the M1 timeframe, market is in a downtrend
- If an up fractal forms and the main line of the stochastic is greater than the signal line but isn’t overbought or oversold, mark that level
- Mark the down fractal that forms immediately after it
- If an up fractal forms below the previous level marked and it meets the same criteria listed in line 3, mark that level and remove the old one
- If a down fractal is formed below the marked level but the main line of the stochastic is overbought, delete the old level and mark that one
- Repeat this until price breaks the level for the up fractal
- If main line of the stochastic is above the signal line in the M2 timeframe
- If the current time is in line with the interval of the M10 E.g. the time is 11:10 or 14:00, wait for the candle on the M1 to close and if it close above the level for the up fractal and the main line of the stochastic on the M10 timeframe is above the signal line, enter a buy trade
- If the current time isn’t in line with the interval of the M10 E.g. the time is 04:29 or 06:09, wait for a time that is in line with the interval, wait for the candle on the M1 to close and if the main line of the stochastic on the M10 timeframe is above the signal line, enter a buy trade
- Set SL at the level marked for the down fractal
- If main line of the stochastic is above the signal line in the M2 timeframe
On a semi-related note, it appears as if the the trend of both markets have become bearish
The candles are also the biggest moves in a day this year for both markets
If successful, do you see yourself trading this way in 5 years from now? Looks like a lot of time spent on small time frames.
Yes, I do. 
What do you mean by “a lot of time spent on small time frames”
Is that bad?
A lot of time watching the charts. Difficult to do if you have other duties.
True
But if I set up an alert that triggers anytime a setup is about to happen (when price is above or below the 200 EMA), I only need to watch the chart when that happens
I trade from 7:00 - 17:00 GMT+1 but I don’t watch the chart the whole time, maybe only like half the time and there could be 5 hour gaps between each setup
How long do you spend trading?
15 mins to mark levels, set alerts.
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I ran another backtest but this time for GBP/USD and the results are shocking
Starting on 22 February, 2024, I ran this test for 12 days
Out of 100 trades, 40 were losses.
At 11:34AM on the second day, the net loss up until that point was $488.
But by the end of the day, the net loss was improved to $66
I also made a lot of new rules for the strategy and one of them was if you open two trades and one hits the TP, move the SL of the second one to the level where half of the profit will be risked
For example, if one of the trades makes a profit of $68, move the SL of the other trade so you will only lose $34 if it gets hit.
I’m really starting to see the effectiveness of backtesting a strategy under different circumstances because this time, the win rate was greater that 60% but actually made WAY less than the one I did before this one. I even thought I was just going to blow the account but somehow, the strategy managed to not do it and I still can’t believe that
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Another STUPID THING happened today
I just spotted the best setup I have ever seen live then I opened a trade but the STUPID part is that I opened it on my FREAKING DEMO ACCOUNT
This could have made me a nice cool $4 but I just had to open it on my DEMO 