Mythbusters Episode 1

finally it dawns on me what you’re getting at. I’m kinda slow sometimes :D. This is just my opininion backed only by one small test a long time ago but yes I think the results of testing forex prices will be random unless you have a plan to take advantage of the things about it that are not random. And that would answer the question of whether or not manipulating the risk / reward yeilds an edge.

"If it’s not random, then theoretically an edge exists by applying only exit conditions to a random entry"
This I would not agree with. If it is not random then why would only the exit conditions be an edge?

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here I thought we were trying to bust the myth of does an R:R ration give an edge. By doing that we have to make everything else as random as possible to isolate the R:R ration as the only thing to have an edge on.

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agreed I was thinking 20 pip stop but 30 will work to give it some room to breath

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Maybe something non-correlated to the others. Like AU/NZ. Or NZ/JPY. Something completely off the radar so to speak.

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Prediction:

It will be negative.

Considerably so…

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I agree.

The profit factor will be roughly equal, but the account balance overall will suffer attrition over time. It can’t do anything else.

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Didn’t I already say that somewhere… I don’t think they are all that subtle as it’s easy to see ranges and trends.

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My prediction is that your results will be close to random. Loss overall because of the spread costs. If you are buying and selling both at the same time then any trend effects will be canceled out.

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