Hi everyone!
I’ve been studying forex for the past 3 months and developed a trading strategy that seems fine for me. I’ve been testing it on demo accounts and seeing consistent results, but now I’m ready to go live and honestly feeling a bit overwhelmed about how much to invest initially. My situation:
Developed a swing trading strategy focusing on EUR/USD and GBP/USD
Maintained 8% monthly returns on demo
Have $15,000 saved for trading (money I can afford to lose)
Was the demo data-feed identical to (and on the same server as) the live feed you’ll be using, with money on the line?
Do you mean “testing for 3 months,” or do you have a decade’s backtested results as well?
How many trades in total have you backtested?
With what win-rate, average win size and average loss size?
Sorry to fire questions at you!
But this, honestly, is kind of the “absolute minimum information” any real and experienced trader is going to need, to start from, to be able even to try to answer your question sensibly and/or sensitively.
I respectfully advise you to be VERY, VERY careful of people who may just give you some semi-random figure without knowing (or asking for) all that information!!
And even then, the answer’s still going to be heavily dependent on the extent of your risk-aversion/risk-acceptance, on how easily you can afford to lose the $15k, and on a number of other very subjective factors, you know?
But above all, well done for so quickly developing something that looks so promising!
And welcome to the forum, too.
By the way, this very recent thread will interest you. Probably. Click the green words in the link below. The thread contains 9 sensible replies and 3 stupid ones (that’s a really good proportion, for a trading forum thread, so it’s a compliment to the thread, not a criticism of it! See if you can tell which are which?!).
Hey FRCon! Sounds like you’ve built a solid foundation, nice work. Since it’s your first time going live, I’d suggest starting small, maybe around $1,000 to $2,000. It’ll help you get used to real-money emotions without too much pressure. You can always scale up as you gain confidence. Good luck, you’re on the right track!
If you can maintain 8% return a month, you’ll double your account in 9 months.
Just have to be and to survive 9 months at a time without blowing up.
Your capital allocation is personal. All at once, divided in to 3rds, or 15ths. Whatever you choose… just double the account more often than you blow it.
When you look at the proportion of recent forex beginners who ever become steadily profitable at all, 8% per month is more than just “impressive”. It’s wonderful.
At the same time, though, there’s a huge difference between (A) an 8% per month average with each month’s results varying between +6% and +10%, and (B) an 8% per month average with each month’s results varying between -6% and +22%.
One is brilliant. The other is wild and unmanageable and probably involves crazy position-sizing.
There’s also an even bigger difference between (A) 8% per month for 3 months when the market was behaving in one way, and (B) 8% per month over a decade covering different kinds of market behavior.
One is realistic and reliable, and the other might be just “a lucky start” and it isn’t yet statistically significant.
And there’s also a big difference between (A) 4 trades per month that has brought in 2% profit each time, and (B) 64 trades per month that have each brought in +0.125% profit, though both are 8% per month.
So really, a lot more information’s needed, here.
I don’t want to put words into anyone’s mouth, but I think possibly these are the kinds of things that @SchmaltzHerring was thinking of, when he made his comments above?
Not that any of that detracts at all from the very good points made by @EmeraldEyes just above, of course.
But just to pluck a number like $1,000 - $2,000 out the air is weird. Sorry if that sounds a bit rude, but it just is.
I’ll be honest, here: I’ve been trading a lot longer than the OP and would absolutely love to be able to make 8% per month.
Sorry if it sounds bad, or negative, but I think this is actually a certainty. I don’t think any retail trader of CFDs manages this. Only people trying to sell something would pretend to?
given your successful demo trading and $15,000 capital, start live trading with a small amount, specifically $1,000 to $2,000.
Use this initial phase (3-6 months) to validate your strategy and manage your psychology in real market conditions, strictly adhering to your 1-2% risk per trade. If successful, gradually scale up your investment.
For how long, over what timescale and how many trades? Can’t tell whether what you have is statistically significant, without knowing that?
These things really do matter, as others have said.
It sounds like you’re off to a promising start, of course (and very quickly indeed!). I don’t want to sound negative, but appreciate that it’s terribly easy, and common, to have nice-looking results very briefly on a demo and find that with money on the line, it doesn’t quite go as planned, for whatever reason.
The big, important question, here, is whether the demo data feed is identical to the intended live one. The answer to that determines whether you should “put money on it” at all, doesn’t it?
Congrats on reaching this stage your strategy and discipline show you’re on the right track.
Since you have $15000 it’s smart to start small maybe $1000 to $3000 for your first live account. This helps you get used to real money trading without risking too much up front.
Focus on staying consistent with your plan and risk management. once you’re confident in live conditions you can slowly scale up. Good luck on your next step!
Uhhh, why jump in with $1000 if you haven’t trading live before. I’m a fan of starting even smaller. Also, how will you manage risk, position sizing and how many simultaneous trades?
You’re definitely on the right path, and it’s great to see you’ve tested your strategy thoroughly. Since this is your first time going live, I’d suggest starting with a smaller amount, maybe $1,000 to $3,000. Even though it’s money you can afford to lose, trading live feels very different from demo. Emotions kick in, and things like slippage and execution become real factors. Starting small helps you ease into it without too much pressure. Once you build confidence and see consistent results live, you can always add more later. Do let me know once you go live—I’d love to hear how it goes!
Aren’t they targeted at people who don’t have $15k that they can afford to lose? Why take the risk of them disappearing or refusing to pay on some trumped-up technicality or loophole, when you don’t have to?
