I always thought that institutional human traders traded this way, in that they opened trades based on long term macro economics, if the fundementals go against them they can wait years for a reversal.
The difference between them and us is they have access to practically unlimited drawdowns and we have to use stoplosses to avoid getting our accounts blown up.
I know people will disagree with me but I honestly think the only signal institutional traders use is moving average and MACD. I’ve had more success trading stocks with MA + MACD than any other indicator. My theory is simple “maths don’t trade the markets, people do”
There is a problem with the belief that you can trade by leaving the trades open only if you have unlimited resources. The institutional traders have to report percentages and those percentages would be constant with non institutional traders as well. However, I am personally aware of a couple of institutions that use one of the products made from my research so it can’t be true that all of the institutional traders only use the macd.
The biggest problem with most of the statements that one hears about no loss systems is that those opinions were based on a truth that’s 4 or 5 years old. There is never given a hope of progress in our research. I don’t work out side of my research. After 5 years of doing nothing but research, one would guess that some progress would be expected. Notice how no one comments on the split grid use? That is one of the key component to making the GoldenGrid system function. The profitable pip spacing on the grid is another innovation that is never mentioned. What we are left with then is that the firmly held beliefs and comments then are based on what was, and not what is. It was true that man could not fly, yet anyone with a ticket may do so today. I would dearly love to hear comment on my book, then we could at least be on the same page. The actual Broker reports showing the results from a live account, have been on the internet for all to see, but no one comments on those results.
I wish I could help more but the rules of the forum prohibit me from walking you through the hows. I have no problem with them, we have rules on our forum as well, not quite as restrictive but I always follow the rules once I know what they are. So I will help as much as I can to bring this debate along a rational course while having to limit the directions for finding the proofs. Yet it would be pleasant to hear where those that say this doesn’t work or that doesn’t work find their proofs. There is a place for emotional regards but trading isn’t one of them. There is a place for rational thinking and logic based on understanding however. First, at least read my book then by all means, tell me where I went wrong. I’m listening.
The true key is R:R. Your account will be cleared out eventually if you trade the way described in the first post. Eventually the market turns and will not be back near your trade for YEARS.
Yes but in those years you are closing out winning trades which increase your account balance so that the loosing trade becomes smaller by comparison until it becomes insignificant.
And how did THIS thread get ‘resurrected’??? LOL!!!
Yes but in those years you are closing out winning trades which increase your account balance so that the loosing trade becomes smaller by comparison until it becomes insignificant.
Now listen up 'buddy ‘ol pal’:
You and I have never disagreed on anything and while your statement makes LOGICAL sense: it’s certainly not a chance I’d be prepared to take nor advice that I’d give to anybody!!! LOL!!! That’s (to me anyway) identical to the concept: ‘I’ll trade without stops and SOMEDAY the trade will come back to me’!!! LOL!!! It very rarely, if ever, does. Then again: why not go ‘the whole hog’ and add a Martingale type strategy to the concept. I mean: if you double-up ENOUGH times while going against the trend it MUST come back to at LEAST breakeven at some point in time??? YEH RIGHT!!! LOL!!!
ruffled your feathers did I? LOL
I didn’t mean that as a recomendation but only as a thought provoker.
question is how big of a stop is too big and how small is too small? Do you want a stop that you can be confident is not going to be hit or one that you are confident that it is going to get hit? Or do you use one that you just hope doesn’t get hit before the take profit gets hit?. And then what about take profit size? How big should that be? How big is big, how small is small? There’s a lot of variables to consider. A stop loss can vary anywhere from zero pips which is too close to infinite pips which is too far.
Most pairs have an average daily range which changes only a little over time. Sure there can be some unusually short bars or some unusually long ones but most will be an average length. So even without a stop, the most a trade can go against you in a day is the daily average of the pair… on average. That’s excluding any unusual things that may cause price to move way beyond the average.
Trade size makes a difference too. I use no leverage so my trade size is the same as my account size, but then some people may use 40:1 or 100:1 or 500:1 so that’s going to have a big effect.
My dad used to say, “it’s better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubts”. People would laugh at every innovator from the Wright brothers to some guy who said the Earth was not the center of the solar system, the sun was. These well meaning souls operate out of fear, they assume their beliefs are reality and can’t open their eyes to the new world before them. I have been trading mathematical systems for years now, I will never go back to “chasing the price”. My system, makes a consistent 5% per month whether I look at it or not. Now that is not the no loss system and yes it uses a modified Martingale recover system. That will get the old dogs barking (old dogs are the ones that you can’t teach new tricks to), but it works. Do I care what self righteous egos have to say, no. Numbers speak louder than words. There is always a time of learning in every new endeavor, a time in which mistakes are made and losses do occur. But that is the price that you pay to become successful. If you let the fears of other talk you out of learning what went wrong so you can learn to fix it, you are stuck in a flat world where someone else, the church, the government, or some well meaning stranger makes your decisions for you. I had quit this thread because there were too many stuck in the past and the negativity was pulling my creativity away. So, remembering this as I have, I do not plan to participate any further in this thread, but this one last time, I wanted to post to any who may still be listening, there is a lot more to the world than can be imagined by the thoughts and fears of men. You have a demo or can start one, use that find out for yourself. The dearly held beliefs of others are their limitations, not yours. Want to see a martingale that works? Read the chapter on FireStorm and down-load the free demo. There is no expiration on the demo, test trade it for years if you like, but then remember that what the experts had said was true once upon a time, and still is true for them, but truths have a funny way of changing when the people do.
Bob
Admiteddly: I didn’t read the first few pages on this thread before my post THIS time around (but I remember that it’s very title ‘got under my skin’ when it was started. Was it not one of those now banned members that started it??? Sorry: I cannot be sure and I’m so ‘knackered’ after this week than I’m not going to take a look now. If not: I apologise).
It’s not impossible to trade against the trend wihout needlessly suffering losses as you quite correctly say Master Tang (although I’m not sure in what context you’re meaning). I may use one trading system that’s REAL long term but another to trade in the opposite direction of the trend when signalled to do so (of course you need to be able to ‘hedge’ to do be able to do this). I’m not sure if that’s what you’re meaning. When I first saw this thread being ‘resurrected’ again and saw the last few posts I was just making the assumption that it was one of those trading systems where (theoretically) you could never lose IF, for example, you ‘hedged’ in one direction if you were wrong on your original trade and then closed the ‘hedge’ when your trading system signalled you to do so. Or worse still: you could do like I did a while back (as you well know) i.e. go long something and ‘gut feel’ tells that this minor FEW THOUSAND DOLLAR move against you is going to turn. ‘I just know it’. Well that never worked for me I can tell you.
So I apologise that my posts was maybe out of context and that I did not do my research for posting on this thread again (I think I did once upon a time and that landed up in a fiasco if I remember unless I’m thinking of another thread that is).
Anyway: I’ve had a great two weeks but I’ve concentrated real hard for a change and I’m ‘spent’ so ‘all of ya all’ have a lovely evening and weekend. Me: I’m ‘outta here’ for now.
actually there is alot of truth in what you say…the trick ios to trade longer term with smaller lots so your not afraid to let trades work…most trades I ake make around 500 pips, the hard part is waiting for the trades to happen
I’m 2 years late with this post, but here goes anyway. It’s just the point I want to make. The thread is labeled right when it put “Theoretically” in parenthesis. We had a chat group in 2007 when I forewarned the group of a drop on the USD/JPY that was going to take place. It seemed like I was crazy at the time, but the price was around 123.00 and I was foretelling of a drop that would go to 109.47. Some were saying it was going to 126.00. Let’s say someone went long at 123.00. It’s 4 years later and that trade would have been 4800 pips in the hole. If there was enough margin to cover it, what good would the trade have done to the bottom line. No losing trade, but you still would not have been able to pull any winnings out. What is the difference?
Trading is not designed to have winning trades 100% of the time. An occasional loss is just the price of doing business.
Well, you’re right in asmuch that nothing falls in a straight line. The mentioned drop concerning the USD/JPY did take 4 months.
Can you elaborate on why you believe I’m assuming something that is not real? Or, do you beleive it is practical to never post a losing trade?
Price is basically an oscillator. Money flows from place to place because of value. The flight recently to the franc and yen are examples of that.
The high influx of money to the franc is hurting the Swiss economy badly right now. As a result, the value won’t be there, money will have to leave, and price will drop.
As for never losing a trade, is it practical? It all depends on your strategy, and method of market entry.
You can make money doing nothing but selling in a bull market, and you can make money doing nothing but buying in a bear market.
It’s all in learning to let the market come to you, instead of chasing it.
one problem i see with this idea is that you have only accounted for your trades closing out.
lets say you place a trade at an extreme high. the trade moves against you 100 pips on the first day, no worries, then the next day another 100 loss, and then another, and another, all of a sudden you are 1000 pips in (theoretical loss) and then you have to keep the position open and pray for a reversal. you cant open another trade while this is going on. and day after day goes without your system going anywhere.
Example eur/usd the week of the 1st of may this year. you open a long position at say 1.4900 and according to current charts you would be 1500 pips down and still waiting for the price to return to norms.
To me the reason to close a trade that is against you is to free up your account to trade again and recover those losses, this system to me is the same as buying and holding stock and praying it goes up.
This trading system is nice on paper but won’t work in the long term and with real money.
1:Long Trends will destroy your profits, sometimes long trends last months or years for the bigger ones.
2:News/Government involvements in the currency can force a currency to spike 2k pips in the opposite direction(Its rarely done but it does happen).
Long term use of this system won’t work because it exposes you to a huge risk in the future for 1-10 years of trading this.
ruffled your feathers did I? LOL