The NZDUSD count is bearish as long as price is below .81, but a sustained break below .78 could lead to panic selling.
While we revised the internal count, we remain bearish. “The near term picture confirms our long term count.” That is, 5 waves down are complete and a 3 wave correction is complete at 1.5701. Risk on shorts can be moved to 1.5701. As long as the EURUSD is below this level, price accelerating lower remains a possibility.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5701, target will be in 1.46-1.49 zone
An A-B-C correction should come to an end within the next few weeks. Wave C is viewed as underway from 98.56. Wave C would equal wave A at 103.88, very close to the former 4th wave extreme at 103.58. Near term support is near 101.50. View our Yen and Dow special report from yesterday for more on the USDJPY.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
We showed the 240 minute bars yesterday but today we are zooming in for timing purposes. There is no change to the bearish bias as long as price is below 2.0191. Near term, we see two possibilities. Price either continues to drop with 1.9898 remaining intact or the GBPUSD exceeds 1.9898 and tests close to 1.9960 (confluence of the 50% of 2.0191-1.9728 and former congestion) before the decline resumes. Both counts are bearish going into next week and beyond. The second scenario just delays the drop.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0191, target 1.86
Expectations are for the rally from .9647 to eventually reach the 1.0730-1.1121 zone. The rally from .9647 has traced out a series of 1st and 2nd waves; indicating the possibility that the USDCHF accelerates higher in a 3rd of a 3rd soon. Under this count, the rally from 1.0067 is wave iii of 3 of A. Risk on longs can be moved to 1.0067.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0067, target 1.10
See yesterday’s commentary for the longer term outlook (which is bullish). Near term, we are concentrating on the rally from .9710 and looking for long entries. We view the .9710-1.0324 bull leg as a wave 1 impulse within a 5 wave bull cycle (wave i of 1 is a diagonal). Therefore, wave 2 is underway now. Specifically, the drop from 1.0324 is wave a of 2. The wave 2 correction will probably continue for a few more weeks before ending closer to .9950 (61.8%) / 1.00 (former resistance). This is where we will look to get long.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
The long and short term patterns in the AUDUSD remain in conflict and we therefore are refraining from taking a strong stand one way or the other. As we noted yesterday, the up-down sequence from .8925 looks like a 5 wave advance and 3 wave decline. This count warrants a short term bullish bias against .8925.
[B]There is no change to the NZDUSD bearish count. “Our confidence in the bearish count that we proposed a few weeks ago has grown. We view the rally from .6639 to .8215 as a large expanded flat (A-B-C). Wave C of that rally is an ending diagonal (waves 1-2-3-4-5 are overlapping and each subdivide into 3 waves). Bigger picture, .8215 may be the end of wave B from .5927. Price is expected to eventually come under .5927. Near term, the drop below .7865 confirms (with a high probability) that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is underway from .8215.”[/B]
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[B]STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8101, target TBD [/B]
[B]Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at <[email protected]>[/B]
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[1] STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas. The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more. Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.