The NZDUSD has lulled the trading community to sleep. The decline since the March top has been dreadful to trade, let alone look at on a chart. Such price action is often corrective and leads to a violent reversal in the opposite direction.
The chart above is of NZDUSD weekly bars with Commitments of Traders data plotted below (for more on COT data). Only twice before now has the Composite COT indicator been this low. In both instances, the NZDUSD formed a significant low and advanced steadily in the weeks and months that followed.
From a price structure point of view, the decline since the March top at .8215 has been choppy and corrective. The drop counts well as a double flat (this is a complex correction). Moreover, the legs of the decline are roughly equal (a common characteristic among corrections). The leg up from .7536 is the closest thing to an impulse that the NZDUSD has shown since the March top. As such, a bullish bias is warranted against .7536 (ideally price remains above .7767) and the target is above .8215.