Greetings. The spike charts for NFP have been quite good the last 12 months. What are your thoughts, would you expect especially more activity on EURUSD and GBPUSD given Brexit.
i am no market wizard but I would say that NFPs post-June-Fed rate decision are a damp squib: there is
not much the markets can be surprised with in the week after Brexit from the point of view of American
employment, as it does nothing to either fuel Fed hike sentiment or pro-Dollar view.
There is a lot of confusion between ‘good for the economy’ and ‘good for a currency’: they are often
different things…
The way to see NFPs is to…avoid them, and see how markets interpret them, thus:
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how the S&P500 reacts;
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how the US Dollar reacts;
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how other (non-US Dollar) currency pairs react.
If there is a decisive move and it creates or enhances an existing trend
in the markets across asset classes, then it has weight; if not, then it is
a flash in the pan with no follow through.
That is how I view the event.
There is a lot of things going on at the moment that can interfere with a know pattern … A good trade could be garbage with everything that is going on at the moment!
There could be another dissappointing reading this Friday. Anything could be expected.
