[QUOTE=“Steady Rich;596539”]Of course the EURGBP and EURUSD fall overnight and I miss out of more potential profits, but it’s alright. CADJPY fell to test the lower portion of that tight range that I pointed out yesterday and it went just low enough to put me into the trade before triggering a ton of buy orders, so I’m down around 55 pips on that trade but had a big enough s/l to stay in the trade (came within 10 pips of kicking me out of it). We’ll see what happens next week. EJ support levels were taken out and a daily bearish engulfing bar was formed, which should send out a ripple effect next week.[/QUOTE] Haha can’t get emotional, you didn’t miss anything, other than the opportunity to possibly loose money on a stop hit… Preserved capital in your account is better than anything… You’ll understand that as you trade longer. There will always be more moves to be exercised, of that you can be certain. I didn’t know you were going to jump in on that CJ position, I thought you were just asking how I would manage it. I would never trade anyone else’s ideas other than my own. Why? Because I don’t have a solid understanding of how they are thinking about things, and when the trade doesn’t work out, it’s not based on your method, so you have no idea how or what you did wrong… I would still not be in any position with that pair yet personally, I see things that support an entry, but based off my own ideas. I wouldn’t be ready to enter just yet, I’d still be waiting, now I’ll feel terrible if you loose your hard earned money on that.
I personally don’t like holding positions over the weekend either, as the spread can kill you on an exit and news may affect you come Monday morning. I hope it doesn’t work against you, but if it does I guess lesson learned… You also have the NFP coming out next week Friday, and the big money generally gets prepared to play that game early in the week… I know that pair isn’t a US cross, but there are ripple effects across major currencies, as prices affect one another across the board.
I didn’t enter the trade based off of your entry, it was something I was considering entering for a couple of days and I think the opportunity presented itself, so I took it
No worries. Just was concerned I was the catalyst. What is your entry criteria for long and short? What time frame do you drop down to and go above your MTF to check for trends and verify your making a good move? If you write them out you’re more likely to stick to them, also if you see something you don’t do against your written plan, it affords you the opportunity to explore why and may give you greater insight into being a better trader all around.
Were you scalping before? Or playing lower time frames?
I have heard of the author of this book before, so I’m sure it’ll be a good read. I’m only a couple of pages in, but an idea popped into my head about the markets. How do you go about gauging market sentiment? The author brings up a good point about fundamental analysis requiring both time and true theoretical value for the trade to be profitable, but we know that this rarely works in the FX market, especially with the volatility that we currently have. Technical analysis by itself is also ruled out because of a lack of a centralized market (i.e. there are an almost infinite amount of data points and multiple markets to account for when looking for patterns). So essentially we are buying and selling based on human emotion – fear and greed of those who over or under-analyze. As the technical analysis becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, we can say that it draws a better picture of human emotion than do fundamental factors, which the retail trader cannot affect, therefore it is not a profitable means of exploitation by smart money. The way I see it, fundamental factors, such as news, drive up the volatility and weed out the weak accounts and technical analysis acts as a picture of human emotion put into the perspective of price and time. The next logical step would be to focus on market sentiment and combine that with PA and VSA to get a good understanding of where price is headed. And I believe that once you can master all 3, your success rate should be ridiculously high, even with higher RR ratios.
I agree with that to an extent. But I think what price action is trying to do, as well as VSA is identify on a chart what the market is possibly doing. I think having an understanding of what is moving the markets in the background and causing those PA and volume levels is a better foundation for success than just relying on what someone else said those candle patterns, or volume levels mean, because as we have seen, they don’t always work. I hope you enjoy that text, it has really peaked my interest, and I’m now looking at some other things that I think will help me become a more well educated trader.
Let me know if you have trouble understanding things in the text. I’m about to read it all again, now that you have my email, just ping me to talk about things. I like this site, but I’m not sure I want to open up Pandora’s box on here.
Back from a little hiatus. Going to be traveling in a couple weeks but I will be posting some of my trades. I trade options with OptionsExpress, and they are linked to FXCM, so I am going to move some capitol over to lay with before the end of the week. I was playing around last night and snagged 60 pips move off the EU pair running 1:2 R:R on demo.
I am always a “play it safe” kinda trader, so we will see how fast I move on trades. OE only allows a 10k position, so I will be limiting my trades to only those I believe to have higher probabilities.
