1520 pips / 150 days = [B]10.13 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged
[B]This represents 35% annualized return[/B]
17 x 5 = 85 days
1670 pips / 85 days = [B]19.64 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged
[B]=79% annualized return[/B]
27 x 5 = 135 days
1490 pips / 135 days = [B]11.09 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged
[B]= 39% annualized return[/B]
14 x 5 = 90 days
900 pips / 90 days = [B]10 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged
[B]= 36% annualized return[/B]
20 x 5 = 100 days
1155 pips / 100 days = [B]11.55 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged
[B]= 42% annualized return[/B]
27 x 5 = 135 days
1060 pips / 135 days = [B]7.85 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged
[B]= 27% annualized return[/B]
[B]Are you kidding me…?[/B]
With 24 hours continous risk exposure lasting weeks pulling 7 - 19 pips per day minus daily interest charged by broker.
[B]Ever cared to look @daily average range of those pairs you traded…?[/[/B]QUOTE]
Actually, what FXbrokerrating is doing is very good performance.
Here’s the numbers:
Lowest profit: 1060 pips/135 days = 9.18% profit (assuming you were risking 2% of capital on this trade and used a stop loss of 230, (if you set SL at last lowest minima) 135 days= 37% of a year.
This means that his lowest return, on an annualized basis was 27%.
What about his other returns? Just see above.
Keep in mind you could open 20 such positions, thus providing massive profits.
[B]FXbrokerratings is averaging 42% annual returns with his system[/B]. On wall street anyone who can do that is considered a god and gets paid billions in bonuses. Note, the stock market has averaged 11% annual performance over the last 50 years, small caps about 13%.
Even with interest payments, the man is succesful beyond anything I have heard of. I will certainly try this long term approach as it seems the easiest to do both in terms of daily quality of life, and has proven insanely profitable for him.
Thanks fxbrokersratings, you are an inspiration to us all.
I just ran the numbers through Oanda and calculated the annualized returns of 10,000 pip profit over 1.5 years, (to see how much money I would make if I managed those profits).
Assuming you use large SLs, (so low margin trading) and risk only 2% of your capital/trade, 10,000 pips/1.5 years = 52% annualized returns.
fxbrokerratings, you are truely an investing god! If I can only be half as good as you, I will become rich beyond my wildest dreams.
Thank you so much for the info. From what I read about scalp trading, it seemed a bit like alchemy, good in theory but not possible for the average retail trader.
Your long term strategy seems like it actually works giving hope to us all!
ArmyDoc, thank you for your support and you calculations! I have never calculated my annualized returns, and it is nice to see the numbers. Thank you, and thank you for you compliments, although calling me a trading god may be quite overstated and I would say I am far from it.
Next, I would like to apoligize to the forum for my actions of “advertising” my website that resulted in all the charts that I have posted thus far being deleted. I have gone through the efforts of editing them and re-uploading them to my websiteso that I could re-post them here and be legal. And I’m sorry that I did not react quicker to the deletion.
For an update, that GBP/NZD buy that I made yesterday at 2.28720 is currently +121.60 pips and I am expecting to see at least two green bars, one for each of the next two weeks, which should allow to modify the current SL from 2.265 into positive territory with a TS of about 500 pips and let the profits run!
I have been known to be wrong, so if you are banking on what I am saying, please use descretion, money management, and common sense. With that said, I excuse myself from responsibility of your actions. I say that because the trade I have made may be making you drool.
FXBrokerRatings, would you mind verifying that I have your basic system understood correctly?
You say that you are looking for 5 week trends, do you mean you wait for 5 consecutive candles all moving in the same direction? Or are you also taking into account the candle chart indicators, (I noticed that there was a hanging man on the EUR/USD chart right before you went short, did that influence you in any way?).
Also what % of capital do you risk/trade? Is it a fixed amount or variable?
I agree with xtraction. 1%-3% per trade. Whether it is 1% or 3% depends on the techs and how many open positions I have at the time. 2 Tips:
1: Watch how much you are correlating yourself.
Keep it around 50/50 and cut your losses, if you have them.
The thing that I wanted most was for people new to FOREX is to understand, That the best thing to do right now “forexwise” is to look at longer timeframes than what you are taught to look at.
There is some experience behind how I trade… There are trillions of dollars of oppotunity in the fx market, yet people make money selling you ways to trade the market, maddening.
The market is always right, and you can’t do a thing about it. Before you even think about making a trade you need to realize how big the market is.
About $4,000,000,000,000 changes hands, EVERY DAY, and you, yourself and I can’t have any affect on it. The thing to do is “listen” to what the biggest share of that market is doing. The biggest portions of currency trading are BANKS. What are the tallest buildings in your city? Who controls currency? Yen?
1, Don’t trust you gut. It doesn’t know what it is talking about.
Follow the techs. Follow the trend. Trend = At least 3 waves (Up, Down, Up)
It’s obvious.
I say at least five bars in the “trend.” A “trend” is defined as three waves with higher highs and higher lows, or opposites, and usually takes at least five bars for the “big dogs” to define that trend.
Fundamentals: Will never fully understand them, there are so many factors, but you must take them in to account when trading long time frames. They are unpredictable and they are what control the market in the long run. = What does the majority of the world think, about what just happened? ; How many people do you know that have a bank account? What are the tallest buildings in your city? What is the riches entity in your nation? Who controls your currency? The Gov’t?
People’s setiment is reflected by the powerful people of the nations and it is complex, and it matters.
Important Rules:
Know yourself, your tendencies.
Cut off emotion, stone cold, while trading.
win or lose.
Cut your losses, set a stop/risk and DO NOT change it, ever.
Always let your profits run. You will be tempted to close it early. Chances are, if you are following a trend, it is only a consolidation and will later continue with the trend.
Blah, Blah, Blah, I’m tired, going to bed. More later.
Your wisdom is great sir, and I salute you on following the disciplined, smart, KISS strategy utilized by such greats as Warren Buffet and George Soros. You stand in the company of giants and your returns show it.
As for the best way of letting winners run, I would like to recommend people look into the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo tool. I have just spent the last 6 hours studying it and back testing 5 different currencies over the last 18 months and I must say that this tool is wonderful for finding long term trends and maximizing one’s gains from it.
And ForexBrokerRatings, I have to say, you were right about the amount of action one can get, even with long term trading. For example, Oanda has 23 major and exotic pairs with spreads of 6 or less, (for long term trading where SLs are 250 pips and profits can reach into the thousands of pips 6 is acceptable in my opinion).
I just finished backtesting 5 currencies, using the daily charts and trading with Ichimoku. From 9/28/08-10/02/08 I had valid buy or sell signals for all 5 pairs! (These pairs were AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY) All 5 pairs were long term trades, (between 2.5 and 6 months) and all 5 were profitable, (pip profits between 393 and 3,274, with 3/5 trades bringing in over 1000 pip profit).
The point? That even someone who feels a constant need to be trading can participate in the smart and profitable method of long term trend trading. With 23 pairs to choose from one could theoretically have 10-15 positions open at a time, (the limit is 14 if you risk 3% and 23 if your risk is 1.88%)
Today, as I spent 12+ hours crunching numbers in excel, I was struck by the true power of Forex.
Its not the individual leverage of any one trade, (as scalp traders like to believe) its the ability to enter many, many long term positions and make massive average profits on each!
As an example, using the Ichimoku long term strategy, over 23 trades, (15 of them profitable) I averaged 629 pip profit/trade. This is a 4.64% gain on your capital/trade! Multiply this by the number of positions you have open and you can see the power of leverage.
Where a person trading stock would need to pony up dough to trade individual stock, one can trade dozens of pairs with Forex! With 1.5% capital risk/trade, you could even open a long term position with every single pair!
And with profitable long term trend trading systems, your high average profit/trade is multiplied by many, many trades!
As an example, lets say you risk 3% of capital and use 250 pip SLs, this allows you to have 14 positions open simultaneously without risking a margin call. With an average profit of 4.64%/trade, this comes to a 65% profit. Now the longest trade I had so far in my back testing is 6 months. So if you were to open and hold 14 positions, not open any more and just let them complete, you could easily make 65% in just 8-9 months! That’s a 112% annualized return! This is why the biggest money to be made anywhere on earth is in Forex, no other market can offer such returns!
Of course to take advantage of the oppertunities of Forex you have to follow ForexBrokerRatings sage counsel and be disciplined with money management and following your trading rules to a T. You must learn to trust yourself and your system and remove all emotion and let simple logic rule you.
Its a challenge that 90% of people who attempt Forex fail at, but its not magic or rocket science, anyone can learn to do it.
Wow, I wasn’t expecting that. GBP/NZD made a huge move down yesterday and hit my stop loss. It happens. Let you all know what my next move is when an opportunity reveals itself. Good Luck and happy trading.
Check out EUR/USD on the weekly. SHORT ASAP. Leave It in for a week. I bet it runs down tomorrow. But leave it for a week. Down tomorrow, up 3/4, the next then down some more. At least 250 pips for the week. DISCLAIMER! simple, crazy prediction. Been in since 1.437260.
What has its results been for the last year? This seems very interesting. I like the risk to reward style. It would appear at first glance using this type of technique that one would only need to win few trades having lost many to be ahead.
I closed my short position today (opened 12/29/09) @ 1.35399 for a profit of about 830 pips.
Other than that position, I really don’t have much going on because most of the pairs have been trading sideways.
Dadulus, I wish I could give you a number on the drawdown but I really truly have no idea what it is.
Cappa, again I wish again that I could give you a number in pips, but I can’t. The best I can do is say that the number of pips won last year was between 15,000 and 20,000. That is my best guesstimate.
At the end of this year it will all be figured out. That is one of the reasons I started this thread and built my fxroyalty.com to keep track of this stuff.
I’ll let you know when the next opportunity presents itself.
Oh, by the way did everyone like my prediction a few weeks back that was basically dead on?
I am still using my trading strategy a little, and it works, but I really don’t want to be involved anymore. Been running megadroid and now their new thing, scalpa, and have no reason to ever put any thought into it… let the robots work. it’s sad, but I’m worn out and busy flipping houses for “fun”. something to do. If you read this thread and are getting into the game, use the advice. If you are “expert” and failing, use the advice. If you want to retire at 28, use the advice. It is not a game. Do it right and ou will succeed.
So your using a bot now? Would you say it works well? Which one will make you more pips, the robot or your old strategy of spotting trends? Hope the profits continue to come!
That is a good question, sorry for the delay in the answer. Since the markets have been so volitile lately, I have taken a hands off approach and let the bots do the work for me and it works ok.
The best thing to do is to stay away from the market if you don’t know what it is going to do. Remember my prediction? It was almost dead on. I knew what was going to happen, so I traded. These days there is no telling what’s going to happen so I stay away.
Both robots that I am using are scalpers aiming for the US close. After seeing what they do… I think they guess a direction and put a small TP on it. It’s like flipping a coin and it’s been bugging me, but they work. So…
Recently, I have been working on my own bot. Finally figured it out. Will be fine tuning it for a week or so but it has nothing to do with a coin flip. So far, it is 70-90 percent winning trades with an average win of 40 pips. Umm… here.
Bars in test 69985
Ticks modelled 13185562
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 10540.00
Gross profit 40175.00
Gross loss -29635.00
Profit factor 1.36
Expected payoff 75.83
Absolute drawdown 844.00
Maximal drawdown 9319.00 (34.22%)
Relative drawdown 34.22% (9319.00)
Total trades 139
Short positions (won %) 70 (71.43%)
Long positions (won %) 69 (69.57%)
Profit trades (% of total) 98 (70.50%)
Loss trades (% of total) 41 (29.50%)
Largest
profit trade 1500.00
loss trade -1582.00
Average
profit trade 409.95
loss trade -722.80
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 15 (5884.00)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 6 (-2082.00)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 5884.00 (15)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -2792.00 (2)
Average
consecutive wins 4
consecutive losses 2
This is on GBP/USD from 05/28/10 to present. Haven’t tried any other pairs yet but don’t see why it won’t work on most of them with the way I have it set up. My goal was to create one bot that will work everywhere so I can continue to have all kinds of pairs with open trades how I like it. Will let you know how it pans out.
Just wondering you said that was from 5/28/10 to present, so there must have been a typo. How long was this test run for? Very interested in anything you have to share with the success you have had.
Do you still look for longterm positions on the dailies and weeklys? I suppose the market has been rather volatile but there still seems to be some promising setups.
consistent winners !
