Ode to Forex, from the trader's graveyard

Quote of the day. Thanks for putting that out there!

And sorry to hear about your woes. Can I ask what you’re expectations were, going in, about actually being successful - success being whatever you thought “that” would be? Were you live trading or on demo?

I think management of expectations is key here. If you expected trading to be a sure thing, with winning at every corner, you’ll surely be disappointed when reality sets in and the outcome is the complete and utter opposite.

I know it is cold comfort but there is some consolation in knowing you are not alone - actually far from it! Concrete evidence of this is found on the home pages of every ESMA regulated broker who are obliged to publish a statement that typically reads like this:

" 70.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider".

So you can believe that it is NOT down to personally - but this is the paradox in forex. Because, in fact, it is also entirely down to you personally! :thinking: What I mean is:

Spend a few years on this site and you will soon see that new traders come in all shapes and sizes from all over the world from all kinds of backgrounds and with all kinds of abilities and potential - and yet this one statistic published by the brokers themselves shows that this hugely diverse sub-section of the human race nearly all consistently end up in the same graveyard!

Why is this? Well, spend time on this site and you will see that there are countless threads that are either entirely devoted to this question or at least touch on it at some stage. And the answers are always the same.

Most traders are TA based, either totally or proportionately. All traders also know that markets can only go up, or down, or stand still. What can possibly be easier than using TA to tell which way it is going, up or down, and go with it! And yet over 70% (probably more) cannot do that “simple” task! So the question why is extremely relevant.

The simple reason why so many diverse people end up in the same hole is because they all go through pretty much the same process.

Most newcomers search for a method/system/strategy that works. They try one and when it loses they jump to another one…and another one. They spend their time analysing their system to “correct” its “failings”. They will add a new indicator here, change the settings on another there, up the TF, down the TF, and so on.

You can see for yourself how, whenever anyone starts a new thread for another “Free trading system”, it starts with a lot of posts from enthusiastic hopefuls, then come the suggestions for improvements and add-ons. And soon the original system has become unrecognisable. The process is based on the concept that every time it loses bolt on another filter to prevent it happening again.

But this process has one underlying flaw in its logic. Markets are not homogeneous. They do not move in smooth sine waves with consistent acceleration/deceleration rates and equal durations. Every move on every pair is like a snowflake, similar but unique. And no system can ever be good for all conditions. All the tampering does is fit the current curve - until it no longer fits.

It has also been proved statistically by brokers themselves that, contrary to commonsense, most losing accounts actually win more than 50% of their trades! How can this be so if the method is working and yet the trader is losing money?

The answer has been posted here consistently by so many experienced traders. The factors determining success in trading is in you, not in your system. We all need to spend time analysing what kind of trading we should be doing, how we react to wins/losses, and focusing far more on managing and protecting the health of our account rather than each individual trade. For example, how many traders put hands up when asked “Have you ever lost a whole week’s profits in just one aggressive, excessively large, trade?”

We need to know ourselves and we need to know our markets - and we need to learn when to trade - when not to trade and - when to walk away.

A novice driver and a veteran both drive the same roads - but the Newbie driver’s insurance is much more expensive than the veteran’s - why is that? The answer is not down to the quality or unpredictability of the road or the tuning of the vehicle - so what is left???

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Nuff said.

Except i once lost a whole years profit in one week.

Hehe

Man now that was a learning experience!

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Well there is a bright side to that:

You did successfully earn a profit for a whole year in order to be able to lose it! :joy:

All that was left was to learn how not to give it back! But that is perhaps one of the most ignored areas of trading today… and yesterday, even amongst some of the great names in trading history.
You have already got there, but others? Well:

Manage your money - so boring, so vital! :+1:

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Well done for your honesty and openness @trolloc63.

But are you profitable now?

exactly and well said
Timing is everything

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But before you finally lay yourself down in your trader’s grave, just take a moment to ponder on this:

When things go wrong, as they sometimes will,
When the road you’re treading seems all uphill,
When the funds are low and the debts are high
And you want to smile but you have to sigh.
When worries are pressing you down a bit ,
Rest, if you must, but don’t you quit.

Life is queer with its twists and turns,
As everyone one of us sometimes learns
And many a failure turns about
When he might have won had he stuck it out.
Don’t give up though the pace seems slow,
You may succeed with another blow,

Success is failure turned inside out,
The silver tint of the cloud of doubt,
And you never can tell how close you are
It may be near when it seems so far.
So stick to the fight when you’re hardest hit.
It’s when things seem worst that you must not quit.

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It’s only $5K, and direct access to our team qualified pros! All who make big $$$!

:laughing:

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I am as of yet not profitable. Initially I saw the fancy vids on YouTube about retiring from my job and being rich from many of the fake mentors out there. You know their names.

dude, learn to have an idea where the price is heading next, some sort of analysis that would be easy to understand and grasp, that relates to ur way of thinking. let s say u have a bias made from the 1hr tf, then u can go look and search for a trading setup on a lower tf for a tighter stop, or u can enter on 1hr, doesn t matter. u can base ur entries on candlestick patterns at areas of confluence like supoort, rsistance, emas, fibs, round numbers etc.target twice ur stop on every trade and u should be on ur way to actually makin some money. do this again and again, rince and repeat, that s how u get consistency. u can make money even with a lower win rate depending on ur money management, there are ways… test it, forward test it, go live with small lots untill u see the outcome, journal every trade, write the reasons u enter, risk, possible reward, and the final outcome. after few hunderd trades u ll see why ur losing, why and on which setups ur likely to win, times of day etc. for example after my first 200 trades using VSA, most setups i d lose on were taken after 17 or 18 gmt. so i stop doing that. don t give up!!!

That’s really beautiful!

Thanks @HonestDon, Yes, it speaks to me, too!

Being a money trader can be a very lonely place. There are few people, even among family and friends, that have any idea what it means. They understand nothing of the stress and emotional pressures involved in trading.

If you say you lost money trading “squirrel skins” then you may gain at least a sympathetic pat on the shoulder because the market must have been the cause. But if you lose from trading money then you are branded a hopeless and reckless gambler that is squandering ones life savings away (which, unfortunately, is actually often true!)

But the loneliness can often hit the profitable trader too. If you buy and sell cars that is fine but if you trade money and make a profit that shows then you obviously own some kind of online casino and are fleecing other people off their life savings -and probably don’t even report it to the taxman! :crazy_face:

It is certainly not easy to find a sympathetic shoulder that is also both knowledgeable and encouraging, on which to lean when you have given it all you’ve got and the finishing line is still on the other side of the hill…

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Cracks me up how everyone thinks trading is gambling.

In the past I used to say its speculation, which often made it worse.

These days i dont bother.

And yes trading is a totally lonely pursuit - still i think many of us who are good at it are introverts anyway

The real question one should ask oneself is not whether trading is gambling, but whether one is gambling instead of trading.