Here we are, its Christmas Day, and we should all be totally engrossed in a day of peace and happiness with family, and with thoughts far away from the markets and movements and charts,
When I thought that the oil markets could reach as far as the lower $40’s on the back of further stock market weakness, I didn’t anticipate the US Treasury Secretary would push us there in what apparently ended up as the worst Christmas Eve fall in the US stock market ever!
I mean, why does the US government’s top finance minister disturb the top men in the country’s six largest banks on a Sunday to check that they have sufficient reserves to handle any liquidity problems - and then tell the world what he has done on Monday, Christmas Eve, in the thinnest trading days of the year - and when no one was actually even concerned about that as an issue?
If you were happily sitting at home having your breakfast coffee and your country’s finance minister. suddenly announces on TV that he has checked that all the country’s energy companies have enough petrol for everyone, what would you do? Maybe just jump in you car with every available canister you can find and rush to the nearest petrol station - along with everyone else!
When markets move in the direction of the prevailing trend, in thin markets, and in reaction to panic news, there is little to slow them down, and logical analysis is quickly overidden by algorithms.
Well here we are, close to $42 WTI. There is little doubt that we will still see some significant spikes, in either, or both, directions after the holiday and this is not a market to trade in right now.
When the dust settles, and we stop panicking about even the US government shutdown (which is totally irrelevant in this context but is also being thrown onto the bonfire to fan the flames), then I still stick to eventually seeing the lower $40’s as a bottom zone - unless, of course, we really are entering a global recession period…
US Oil has dropped around 45% over the last 10 weeks.That is the equivalent of pricing in a recession and I think we are far from that in reality.
So what if the New Year sees 1) another OPEC meeting (as mentioned by UAE), who have dedicated themselves to "doing “all that is necessary” is stabilise oil prices (at a level higher than where we are right now), 2) a settlement of the US govt funding impasse, 3) positive news in the US/China trade talks and 4) even a breakthrough in the Brexit agreement issue.
But markets are what they are, and a lot of work has to be done by a lot of government/central bank spokespersons to calm the fears and re-instate credibility to the stock markets before we can be confident that the markets are reflecting the reality of the global situation and not just focusing on the string of tweets, that appear to be coming straight out of ponderings in the US govt restrooms.