Index Strat Risk Target Oil [B]FLAT[/B] Gold [B]SHORT[/B] 1010 600 Silver [B]SHORT[/B] 14.60 < 8
[B]Long-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil[/B]
The choppy decline from below 57 (January high) may be wave b of B. As such, wave c is underway and should exceed 57. A target area is 64-74. If this plays out, then there will be an opportunity to ride wave C down to much lower levels (perhaps as low as $10).
[B]Short-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil[/B]
Crude oil prices have been fairly motionless through recent trade, but the NYMEX contract threatens to break lower if it is unable to hold a medium-term rising trendline. The 49.50 mark represents the approximate level of support offered by the multi-month trend, and the contract has thus far managed to stay above. Yet a break opens up a move towards firm price floors at 47.50 and 45.00. Medium-term momentum remains to the topside, but it seems that crude oil could potentially see further pullbacks through near term trade.
[B]Long-Term Technical Forecast for Gold[/B]
The decline from 1008 is an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the larger trend has turned down. Since 1008, gold has declined in 5 waves and advanced in 3 waves at multiple degrees of trend. Price ideally remains below 968 (wave 2 high
[B]Short-Term Technical Forecast for Gold[/B]
Gold prices remain in a fairly tight short-term range, and subsequent forecasts are somewhat unclear. The COMEX Gold contract recently failed to break above the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 935-865 move at 900. The resistance level likewise coincides with a recent spike-high, and Gold bulls may have a difficult time breaking above it. To the downside, a multi-week trendline lends support near the 890 mark. Until we see a break in either direction, short-term outlook will remain unclear.
[B]Long-Term Technical Forecast for Silver[/B]
The pattern in silver is clear. The drop from the March 2008 high to the October 2008 low was in 5 waves, indicating that any subsequent rally should prove corrective. The rally was corrective; the count shown is an A-B-C advance with wave A as a leading diagonal. Waves A and C are close to equal, which is common in a correction. The next bear leg in silver is most likely underway.
[B]Short-Term Technical Forecast for Silver[/B]
The COMEX Silver contract finds itself in much the same position as gold, as silver prices have broken key trend lows. Subsequent price targets become previous spike-lows near the 12.000 mark, and a break lower would signal a move towards 11.50 is likely.
