Of course, I will try to filter entry signals with price action, support/resistance levels, fibonacci, etc…
Interesting ideas Sivric. Here are some initial questions and thoughts:
And yet your method contains none of the OP elements! 
For this reason I would normally suggest moving this to another thread out of courtesy to the OP, but since this thread is dormant and Moneybaggy has not been seen since last year, I guess we can continue here?
If you are trading the 15 min TF, then this is not really a long-term trading system at all. It is a very short term method that you only have access to for a short time “window” each day because of your work. So my first question is:
) What time zone do you live in and what times are you available to trade? Depending on your working hours, does your free time coincide with the Asian, London or NY markets? This is quite important with the 15m TF due to variations in price movement activity characteristic of these various markets.
Why do you wish to use shift=2 instead of shift=1? I guess this can give a clearer signal? The idea underlying a ribbon is that the shifted line is a shadow of the main line and when the main line breaks below its own shadow then it is possibly making a significant turn - i.e. it is like an “advanced warning” of a possible change in direction, and that warning is faster than waiting for a reverse crossover of MAs with different periods. This leads to my second question:
- What currency pairs are you planning to follow? I ask because the 6 sma on a 15min TF is extremely sensitive. Since some pairs are more volatile than others then you will see many false crossovers with these. You might find with some pairs that it is better to use maybe an 8 sma or even higher?
Checking the underlying longer term trend is a very wise precaution and avoids many false breakouts. But I am not sure that the 200 ma (sma or ema?) on a 1-hour and 4-hour is the best choice with respect to trading a 15min TF. They are so slow moving compared with the 15min trades. Also, they may work fine while the long term trend is in its prime but when this trend is fading and starts reversing you might find that 15 min trades no longer have an edge in the trend direction.
As a example, here is last Friday’s EURUSD 15m chart with these 200ma’s laid over. I don’t see much benefit here?
I think there are better ways of achieving this bit. One might be to apply the same approach as used with the 3 Ducks Method, which is a long time method here on BP. It uses a 60-period sma on the 4H and 1H charts to identify the underlying trend and the trades off the 5 min. This 60-period may also be suitable for your method as you are using it for the same purpose and the crosses would be sooner?
There are three other approaches to this that we could look at but I don’t want to throw too much too soon here into the pot! Let’s see how you feel about my comments overall before proceeding further with this bit.
Personally, I think this is a good cross-check. I use it myself and it does help as a confirming signal. Some people do not like off-chart indicators like this one and I confess I do sometimes forget to look at it! As always with short TFs, this can give false signals and I find it more reliable on the 1H chart - but it is an extra aid…and just an aid!
Whether or not the previous candle body is entirely through the ribbon is a good principle but maybe can be treated with some discretion in the context of the price movement as a whole and maybe it is good enough that just the bulk of the candle and close is through the ribbon (and not necessarily the start as well)? - remember, the 15minTF is not a precise science at all!! Maybe another consideration is even more important and that is to be very wary of reversals with large candles on this TF. By definition, the profit targets are not great per trade on this TF and a large reversing candle has often already swallowed a lot of the potential and frequently rebounds on the next candle. A general rule is to enter on a 50% pull-back of the large candle. Treat these with care!
I would add to this that it should also relate to any nearby S/Rs, latest high/lows, etc. In other words, all the normal stoploss criteria but on the opposite side of the ribbon.
If you are talking about your take-profits here, then I do not think this is a good idea on a 15min TF. Crossovers on the 6MA ribbon come fast and furious and you will suffer many small losses as well as lost pips from the max potentials. This will only work on those few strong straight up/down moves. (Again look at the above chart). The original idea of ribbon trading was to look for a fixed target that related to the stoploss and the overall price movement. E.g a stoploss of 15 pips and a target of 20 pips and then to wait and re-enter on another crossover either in the same direction or reversed.
In other words, there are three exits:
- fixed target
- reverse in opposite direction before target hit
- stop out
Well, that’s a lot of waffle from the BP’s best waffler! Most people can say in three words what I take three pages to write, but I hope it helps and if you are interested then we can take this further…
Hi Manxx,
Now I’m talking about your system (ribbons). 
I trade my own system on 4-hour and daily charts, but I needed some system that I could trade each day after work. My own system doesn’t give many signals since it is traded on higher timeframes, so I needed some short-term trading system to entertain me 
I live in Central European Time Zone and I can trade after 5pm
That’s right!
Mostly USD related pairs
BTW Thank you for your help
OK, I understand now what you are looking to do 
One addition that may possibly help with at least some pairs, and at the same time contributes an element of multiple TF analysis, is to add another ribbon.
You are currently only using a 6 period ribbon on the 15 min chart.
But if you consider a 6-period ribbon on the 1 hour chart then this approximates to a 24 period ribbon on the 15 min chart. i.e. 6 periods x 4 lots of 15min.
By adding a 24 period ribbon on the same 15m chart you can see when the 15m ribbon is a) in the same direction as the 1 hour, and b) when the 15m ribbon is ahead of the 1 hour ribbon, c) hepls keep you in a trade longer if there is a distinct bias up or down (or alternatively, a warning not to expect too much if the 1H ribbon is flat!)
Here’s an example from the same EU from last Friday with both ribbons:
It is by no means foolproof but maybe worth taking a look at…just a thought.
So, based on your ideas/trading rules and my ideas, this should be the two entry points (search for X)?
Hi Sivric!
When I first read your reply you still had the 1H version of your chart, which you now changed to 15m. It would have been even better to have left both charts! as there is so much interesting stuff between them to take note of that illustrates why it is so beneficial to keep an eye on both these. I will look at the 1H chart here first:
In fact the hourly chart ribbons are a 1H 6-period and “synthetic” 4H 6-period. This is actually a point I was going to raise later and good that it comes out here. One handy feature of this approach is that theTF relationship for 15m and 1H is the same as 1H and 4H i.e. 1:4. So the same chart works for both and all one has to do is toggle the TF between 15m and 1H to see at a glance how it is looking on both short term and long term bases.
A good example of this was the first buy “X” on your 15m chart. It looked a good trade and did get some follow-through. But if you look at the same region on the 1H chart posted below then it was only a small pullback in an otherwise downtrend. There are three red circles on the chart below showing the same types of trades that could have looked good on the 15m chart but could have been stopped out quite quickly if the 1H chart hadn’t been consulted.
There are some other features on this 1H chart that I want to identify:
Whereas the example above showed the 1H chart assisting the 15m chart, the blue circle below shows the opposite. If we had only watched the 1H chart we would have missed this good down move because the reverse candle was so long and there was no pullback to enter with. But the 15m chart gave a good signal long before that 1H candle closed and one could have ridden that one handsomely!
The green circle shows a “break the rules” type trade. The point here is that ribbons are a discretionary way of trading and not mechanical, which means one should analyse and deduce from what one sees and not just plonk a trade on a crossover with eyes and brain firmly shut.
This is the kind of trade that is risky but can benefit from a good pullback. Firstly we have a good crossover signal to the upside, secondly look at that bottom candle arrowed!, thirdly the price is a long distance away from the other ribbon offering room for the pullback, fourthly, there is a relatively close stop level around, or under, that swing point.
Interesting that you posted the USDJPY chart because it is one that I haven’t looked at for some years! but after you said that you are looking at mainly USD based pairs, I decided to take a look how the ribbons look on these other pairs (I am very conscious and cautious about what I might be encouraging others to do!). Most of them last night did not show anything tradeable but the USDJPY did look a good set up…so I placed a trade there on the 15m in the area below - so thanks for that trade, a nice, unexpected additional bonus for the last day of the month!
My main trading interest nowadays is Crude Oil and I got two good trades out of that yesterday with this approach - one sell and one buy. I post it here purely as an example of how this approach can be very effective on both 1H and 15m TFs:
<img
Hmmmmmmmm!
Whilst posting the above I got this pop-up message:
> Let others join the conversation
> This topic is clearly important to you – you’ve posted more than 20% of the replies here.
> Are you sure you’re providing adequate time for other people to share their points of view, too?
Perhaps I should keep my mouth shut!..
So you say that you actually don’t follow strict rules? Instead, you read the ribbons and price action?
Yes, that is what I do. I know some others who use this method have tried to put it into an EA because, on the face of it, it is very simple. But MA’s are MA’s and they are always on one side or the other of each other and it doesn’t always mean there is a sensible trade there! Perhaps it is just that I like to think about my trades. For others it may be easier to just mechanically follow a set of rules.
One reason why I cannot follow a strict set of rules is because I do not sit in front of my screen every 15m. I pick a few hours from the London session and then a couple from the NY session. I check in every hour and if things look interesting then I sit there the entire time. This means I do sometimes miss the optimum opening trade on a 15m TF and have to decide is it too late or is there still some juice left in it according to the kind of price action that has been taking place.
Yes, I think your example is a good one. I have replicated it below to also show three signals on the 15m chart (red circles) prior to your indicated entry in green. If one only looked at the 15m chart then these would have appeared to be good trade openings. But by comparing them with the higher TFS they do not look so good. The first on the left is still above the 1H whereas a good 15m sell signal should also be either below the 1H ribbon or at least have closed through it.
If you then look at the two right hand arrowed buys on the 15m chart and then look at the 1H chart, they occur in that little upturn on your 1H chart just before your sell signal (green circle) In this cases the 15min charts looks good and the 1H maybe also looked ok, but the 4H ribbon on your 1H chart said “lookout”!!!. I have approximated that 4H line on the right hand 15m chart in dashed/solid black. (i.e. a 96 period ribbon). This shows quite clearly how the various TFs are giving a picture that this upmove is only a consolidation before the next leg down - we didn’t know that at the time but the ribbons already showed the risk/potential of a decline.
Here is another example from this morning of discretionary trade based on ribbons and recent price action.
The small buy candle through the 15m ribbon on the left side was not very significant but was also above the blue/black 1H ribbon as well. But my interest was caught by the series of long tails under the recent bars on the 1H chart on the left in the large green circle (the RSI was also positive). This really felt that there was an imminent sharp move upwards so I bought it with a view of closing when it got to the 4H ribbon on the 1H chart - which it did on the very next candle. I would have then waited to see if it reversed off that (reversing the 15m ribbon) or broke through it - which it did. But I had to go places this morning so I left it there - but the 15m ribbon is still intact. It was only a 9-pip trade but these all mount up!
This, I think, is a good example of how price action observation can sometimes get you into a position much earlier than the normal rules, especially if one is trading and constantly watching a short term like the 15m chart, where entry levels are so critical in order to get the most out of a trade and to ensure nearer sensible stop levels.
It’s just a huge pity that even in a thread as unusual, interesting and welcome as this, there isn’t a way of stopping the usual suspects from filling the forum with their unending no-value junk, just for the sake of making another post. 
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Yes it is a pity. I abandoned my Crude Oil thread for the same reason once some “Panda” guy started dumping copy/pasted stuff there with no personal comment at all. Now, I guess this one will see the same fate…
This ribbon method started on another forum and some 15-20 serious traders contributed their own trades and thoughts and experiences with different timeframes and currency pairs -and with both the good news and the bad. It is not as simple as it might look especially in hindsight. It reached well over a 1000 posts without any kind of “interruptions” from unrelated stuff. In fact a lot of serious work was done there such as producing an alert indicator/EA for ribbon crossovers on the MT4 platform (I don’t use MT4). It was a great pity that that forum shutdown, but I kept a few contacts from it, anyway.
It is not a big money-earner. rather its aim is to put regular pips in the bank with limited risk and a reasonable number of trades generated per day. That is the way I like it - others look for other things.
But BP is a public site and there is nothing “wrong” with these unrelated type posts that add nothing more than bland, inane statements. They are just an irritation and distraction, and I guess if one doesn’t like them then one knows what one has to do!! 
And as such extremely valuable (and the PDF is great).
The moderators seem to think that.
But this is surely why a small number of bland, inane posters have effectively chased away a large number of valuable posters and crippled the forum’s traffic. Hard to see the place surviving in its current form if they don’t do something about that? It’s really ridiculous. I’m surprised you’re still here yourself, Manxx.
[quote=“LaughingCharlie, post:81, topic:75997”]
But this is surely why a small number of bland, inane posters have effectively chased away a large number of valuable posters[/quote]
Yet the beat goes on……& on. And it will continue to do so regardless how many supposed & alleged “valuable posters” got chased away. Forum contributors in all their different costumes are like revolving doors love, constantly in motion!
People come & people go & one or two miss all the attention so much they even reappear under fresh identities having previously stomped off in a huff coz the moderators wouldn’t play ball with them. LOL.
[quote=“LaughingCharlie, post:81, topic:75997”]
I’m surprised you’re still here yourself, Manxx.[/quote]
Really? I’m not.
Like one or two others, your buddy here has made more exits & re-entries than i’ve had hot dinners, so what with revolving door newbies & reappearing oldies I wouldn’t go worrying too much about this joint’s longevity.
Then you must be feeling quite hungry by now!
Actually, I left here in spirit and in quantity quite some time ago. The only reason I ever return here to post is when someone asks me something or posts something in reply to something that I have started or, in some cases, have even sent a PM asking me to stay.
But as you can see, there are really not any serious posters here any more and most are like you and only like writing about people and not trading - something that makes me suspect this site is not frequented by successful traders at all, rather, mainly by those that like others to think they are…
So I guess I am out of this last remaining thread, too. So enjoy yourselves and, no, we won’t be meeting again - unless it is somewhere else…and if I do happen to reappear then you may certain say “told you so”!..but don’t hold your breath…and for goodness sake get something to eat!
Best of luck to all you who are good guys here - you know who you are.
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Don’t leave. I sense a Rebirth, Phoenix Rising going on here at BP. I have invited Tymen, Mike, and TRO back, so if you leave now you will miss all of the rollicking fun on a bun.
But seriously, every one knows my situation, sometimes I have time, sometimes I don’t, so I come and go. I was posting elsewhere, but interest in trading, for most retail traders ebbs and wanes, up and down. So talking in an echo chamber really isn’t much fun, and in all honesty, had some serious illness etc last year, and all my focus was seeking Alpha and getting better.
Now IF, and this is a big IF, the Mods would get behind the regular folks and Hammer, Ban, Whatever, the idiots that off topic post, talk garbage and or are stealth vendors, this would be a good gig. I will say since I came back the mods have very proactive. So there is that.
Anyway, I know someone over at ET that uses a very similar system, I think it slowly became less robust over time, but it did work.
So there it is off topic and all.
The Ever Having Fun On A Bun VIPER
Tymen can’t come back due to the fact those same proactive moderators quite rightly banned him partly for his continuing disruptive behavior.
TRO, one of the most prolific stealth vendors known to man was also banned for his constant product spamming & combative behavior. The same reasons he’s been permanently banned from just about every other public community forum on the net.
You certainly know how to pick your forum acquaintances don’t you, LOL.
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I think he posted the Tymen & TRO references in jest Todd.
I know who they are, but who the hell is Mike?
[quote=“hawkmoon, post:86, topic:75997”]I know who they are, but who the hell is Mike?
[/quote]
He’s either referencing that ICT fool Huddlestone or another like minded pied piper who posted under the moniker of mp6140. Now if you want a really good laugh google him. I guarantee your stomach will ache for a week leafing thru some of that nonsense.
Like Huddlestone, he could talk the hind legs off a donkey. Thing is, for all their talk they seldom say much worth listening to. The only thing they’re good at is extracting money from clueless numpties & generating an audience.
Last I heard someone found old mp6140 belly up a few years back in a flea ridden trailer park in upstate NY. These super-traders sure do know how to rock n roll!
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