One thing that truly pisses me off when they show examples of systems using charts

They always show a chart that aligns with the system perfectly but in reality when doing it yourself it’s a rarity.

Give an example say fib numbers. You use the fib retracement tool and lo and behold i think probably only say 10% of charts have price following proper fib retracement on the proper levels. Yet when you see the charts when they teach you say fib retracement and the price aligns itself perfectly with the tool. You try it yourself and it’s a different story and mind you this is just one example.

Let’s say another method wants you to pick say a new high from the last period of time say maybe 30 days for example. They don’t exactly say 30 days from when? From today?

They will find some obscure time period in which the price has already revealed itself say weeks/months/years back just to find price aligns perfectly with the system yet if you tried it out right now it wouldn’t work.

You are very correct. I gave up on all those indicators. I look for very strong trends (usually caused by news releases) or currency collapses as was the case with many EMs a couple of weeks ago. I think it takes years to learn to use the indicators properly. Sure you can learn the theory in half an hour, but it takes thousands of hours of practice to know how they behave in the real world in combination with each other.

My system is mainly comprised of news trading. But I still sometimes take bets with huge lots when I see a very strong trend. I will set the stop loss to break-even and then have it trail the price very closely. This just requires a lot of discipline in not taking trades. Just wait and wait and wait for a very strong trend and bet huge. You might get one a day or one a week, but the discipline is only betting on those (even if you make less than 10 pips. The pip values are huge with this method).

If you think about it for a minute, you’ll see why they have to do it this way. Use your example of a fib retrace tool. That tool works best in a trending market. It doesn’t matter the time frame, but you have to use it when the pair is trending. Now since a pair only trends 20% of the time and the rest it’s ranging or going sideways, it would be difficult to find one live. So to illustrate a fib Retracement effectively, they have to use a chart that shows a trend and a Retracement.

So before you can use it effectively, you first have to be able to recognize when you have a trend and then swing lows and highs. That takes practice but not a lot; it’s amazing how simple things are after a little practice. If you are having trouble with trends and swings, there are indictors that will help you as well.

But whether or not you use 1 indictor or 21, it’s the same thing. You have to know what the purpose of the indicator is and what conditions you need for it to be accurate. Same with price action, cause no matter what you do in the forex, it’s all price action.

Most advice or teachings in forex is not like sharp shooting; more like hand grenades . . . close counts. When they tell you to use a certain time period, it normally doesn’t matter where the 30 days starts or finishes, just along as it’s 30 days. If when you should start and finish a time period is specific, (last 30 days) the person illustrating will in most cases say.

Hope that helps
Gp

Yeah this happens alot. You’ll find many “gurus” cherry-picking historical setups or using vague, arbitrary rules to make themselves look successful. They’re usually selling something, which is why I never trade anyone’s system except my own. The best you can do is take their ideas and backtest / tinker with it for yourself until you come up with something that both works and fits your personality.

Here’s why you’re wrong. When trading a trend. I use a fib retracement, stochastic, support and resistance to make my entry. I enter when the fib retraces between 50 and 62 percent levels. My stop loss is 25 pips past the 62% level. I use the expansion tool, stochastic, support and resistance to project profit targets at 24, 38 and 50 percent levels. How would I illustrate or teach this strategy to you, if I don’t cherry pick (great phrase, perfectly describes reasons for) from previous time periods to show you what happens if you use it? The purpose of using previous time frames is to illustrate over and over if you enter on the 50 or 62% fib level, place your stop loss on the other side of 62% level and target profits using the fib expansion levels, of 24, 38 and 50% levels, that you are projecting better than 1 to 3 risk reward and that most of the time if the retracement goes beyond the a few pips past the 62% level, in general that would mean a trend reversal and you should be getting out. It is the same principle no matter what you are trying to illustratet, if you thinki about it. Let’s say that you are trying to learn price action setup; it’s the same principle you have to go to previous time frames to illustrate the setups don’t you?

When you used someone else’s ideas for your own, when the idea was shown to you, was it not illustrated using previous events or time frames? Your back tests are created from using previous data as well. As far as not paying for anything, you’ll be further a head if to take the words never or always out of the beginning of any statement and while you’re considering costs, also consider value. For example without promoting anyone in particular, I purchased a price action course all though the course itself did not have that much value, nothing you couldn’t find out for free on the net, but the real value was being able to go to that person’s members only forum and discuss pa with traders who were using his pa system as well as talking to him personally if something was not clear. On the other end I purchased another person’s course, that had great value for my purchase, however they were trying to sell me an additional alerts service for $90 a month that had no value to me, and in most cases would not have value to very many others.

For almost 4 years I have swallowed the same crap. That is why I’ve left the Moonies or the Watchtower, I mean indicators. Today I really find very stupid how people relly on some “magic” formula. If I make my own Fib levels the results will be the same.

Sorry if there was a misunderstanding. Showing example trades is fine, but quite often the misleading ‘gurus’ never make live calls, or show a live trade in progress. All they show is historical setups after the fact. Anyone can do that to make themselves look good.

This is true. I just wish someone could put his damn system to the test and show all his profits and losses.

It’s just like following your favourite sports team throughout the season where you see it win and lose rather than watching a movie about a fantasy sports team that wins all its matches.

For sure, unfortunately they have always been around and always will be, that’s why it’s so important as you said earlier, watch, learn and take what you can to build your personal trading method. But to many traders, forget about the learn and they get involved with one of those " Finally, Forex secrets revealed" types and unfortunately they too will always be around parting with their money.

However there are traders who demonstrate their systems and as well have a live trading room where you can see how they apply it as well as a members forum where they are there to answer questions. But as far as illustrating a trading method, it has to be on past time frames to see how it works.

Unfortunately someone elses profit and losses will not help if you especially if you trade mechanically and in my opinion wont’ help even if you use someone elses automated system. There is no cut and paste, one size fits all trading methods. Trading is a personal exercise. Most traders use a combination of analysis and even if you get the analysis word for word,
you will interpret and apply it differently according to your experiences, situation and bias.

Most traders agree that to have long term success you have to have, a trading method that on balance has the potential to deliver more positive than negative trades; proper money management has to be applied to your method and you need to be patient and disciplined to give your plan time to work.

There is not one way to look at and apply method. There are successful traders who use: 1 time frame, 2 time frames, 15 minute, daily, indicators, no indicators, only tech analysis, only fundamental analysis, a combination, mechanical trading, automating trading, etc. Where you fit in all this is based on your experiences, situation and bias. Money management; for everyone you find who says 1% of account balance per trade, you will find just as many that 2 or 3 or 5%. When you read in this forum, you can’t use 5% per trade, you 're better off with 1 or 2% a risk trading bias believes 5% a conservative bias would say 1 or 2%. How much does your bankroll have to be; same thing. How much can you earn; same thing. Patience and discipline. My back ground is online poker and sports bettor. My brother in law comes from an academic back ground, I guarantee my definition of patience and discipline is different than his. Take the time to learn and build a strong foundation in the beginning so that when you trade live the potential for long term success is more probable than not

I disagree with you. Look there are only so many fx pairs out there and i am sure the same pairs move the same way for everyone. Let’s pick one of the most traded pairs say the EURUSD. If it’s going up i am sure everyone using any broker or looking at it from a financial site will see it go up and not down. Next it’s the time period and the close of the market so if you are looking at it from a daily market and using the US 5pm close well regardless of the broker used all the candles should look the same. Suffice to say anyone that follows a trading system should end up with the same results.

That’s the whole point of the turtles program which was nurture vs nature. It turned out that nuture won. Trading isn’t about having some sort of special talent that only geniuses possessed. If that were the case why even have systems that have specific rules?

Now you really need to explain to me and everyone else why do your statements deviate from the rules of fx trading which is to remove all emotion from trading and to follow the rules. If everyone followed the rules they would have the same results wouldn’t they? Do you mean to tell me if fx guru/expert entered a trade say on the Eurusd at this point and fx loser/unlucky fool entered it the same way likewise somehow the guru will make money off of it and the unlucky sod won’t?

Here is a big big problem with your statement. Honestly please explain yourself here.

<<<< Unfortunately someone elses profit and losses will not help if you especially if you trade mechanically and in my opinion wont’ help even if you use someone elses automated system. There is no cut and paste, one size fits all trading methods. Trading is a personal exercise. Most traders use a combination of analysis and even if you get the analysis word for word,
you will interpret and apply it differently according to your experiences, situation and bias. >>>>>

Now most systems tell you when to enter a tradce, TP or take a loss. It’s as simple as that. What you are trying to do is paint a picture of different ppl that follow the same system of trading ending up with different results which obviously goes totally against the rules of a trading system. A trading system is defined in very simple terms. Anyone regardless of his age/intelligence etc if they follow the rules end up with the same results. You mean to tell me if a retard that followed the rules to a T would end up losing or making less than a genius that followed the same exact rules? Now is that because the rules are biased or what?

I will give you a chnace to explain yourself here,

[QUOTE=snake24;600891]I disagree with you.
Now you really need to explain to me and everyone else why do your statements deviate from the rules of fx trading which is to remove all emotion from trading and to follow the rules.

First of all I don’t have to explain anything to you or anyone else. It’s my opinion just like yours is your opinion. We all have them. If you think I’m wrong and your right. Okay with me. So I think you and I are just going to have to agree to disagree.

You would be correct if all the same traders all traded the same pair, used the same rules, same indicators, same time frame, same entries, same exits, same bankroll rules had the same patience, same discipline same goals. But so what. All you’ve proved is because they are all the same they will have the same results. Again no argument from me.

You are right again there are so may fx pairs out there but they do not move the same way for everyone. Again if everyone was trading eurusd it would move the same way for everyone. Again so what? Just because eurusd is in an up trend, it doesn’t mean gbpud is in an uptrend and not everyone trades the same pair, or has the same goals when they trade. When someone or something gives you a signal, it doesn’t mean that’s whats going to happen. Depending on your total analysis that signal will be different.

Again if everyone used everything the same, same time frame, same etc etc, you would be correct. Go into the free systems part of this site you will find the turtle system is not the only way to trade. There are a lot of systems that according what system you are using will have different results even if everyone traded eurusd. I agree again with you, as far as you don’t have any special talent to trade. If there is one, it would be keep an open mind.

Again your “if everyone followed the rules, they would have the same results” quote, is not correct by itself, it would be correct only if all the people did the same thing the same way everytime, and all other things being equal. Maybe where you come from that might be a reality, I don’t know, but in the place where most of us call reality, that is not the case. Depending on your rules and how you define them is for sure a part of taking emotion out of your trading, patience and discipline are by some peoples estimate the most important.

So lets leave it with we agree to disagree

I’m not sure what part you need to have explained to you. Again it’s my opinion. You need to understand trading yourself and your plan has to be defined by your situation, bias and circumstances. How long does someone have to be profitable before you say, okay this is a system I will follow? 1 month, 3 months, a year, 5 years. You are going to find out just how much it doesn’t work for you when you follow someone elses signals based on their profits and losses. But hey, knock yourself out. As far as your comment about a mentally handicapped person. I could tell you do the world a favour and never reproduce. But that would be wrong, so I won’t.

Now now don’t get too emotionally involved. I really want to know what is the difference between different people trade differently vs trading systems are designed to remove all emotion from the trade. Seriously think about this how contridictory it sounds. Let’s use logic. If we all followed a system we wouldn’t need to even put our feelings into a trade would we? All of us would see the same exact chart of a certain fx pair and then trade the same way according to the rules wouldn’t we?

You see again this is why i brought up the turtle trading system but you didn’t want to answer my question pertaining to the turtle method.

Let’s leave the turtle method of trading aside but why was the turtle trading method even brought up? The entire principle of the turtle trading system is based upon this argument of innate talent in trading vs following the rules and principles of trading in a system. What this means is that if a trading guru followed the same rules and methods in a system system he should have the same results as a complete idiiot that used the same rules no ifs and buts. That is it. The turtle method proved that you could be anyone but if you followed the system you would get the same results as anyone else trading guru or not. That’s the whole point of the turtle trading system.

Let’s get to the point of the matter and please answer my questions for me. What exactly are you talking about? How can different people trade differently when the rules are fixed? If it’s 1 + 1 on a system everyone regardless of their intelligence level would come to the conclusion that the answer would be 2 unless you beg to differ.

Can you also explain to me why did the turtles who were assembled by dennis richards all traded in exactly the same way when they had different personalities? I mean they all had to follow the trading rules didn’t they? So how come they all traded the same way?

I’m not emotionally involved and this is not my first rodeo, you’ll probably find this hard to believe, but you’re not the first trader to say, pick a system based on profit and loss and then follow the rules; simple as that. Now since you asked so much nicer this time, let me giver you my opinion.

Your first clue as to why this is not the way to go is. . . the hundreds of thousands of traders before you, are not doing it. But what the ones who are still around, will tell you make trading personal and geared to what you want to accomplish. Use proven ideas, such as follow the trend, make sure momentum is on your side, make sure you verify with support and resistance etc etc.

In theory all trading systems are designed to put the balance of probabilities on your side and in a perfect world, might happen, but as many traders will tell you, in the real world of live trading conditions are anything but perfect or logical. There are traders who are buying and selling and not just Mr I’m new to trading. There are banks, hedge funds, etc etc with deep pockets and a lot of ammo on their side all trying to do the same thing as you; have more of a positive day than negative and mostly for them to be positive, you have to be on the other side in the negative.

Again all long term traders will tell you the same thing. Don’t get emotional, don’t revenge, stick to your rules, be patient, be disciplined. Even if you did all that 100% of the time a 100% every day, you need to have experience to be able to sit it out and leave everything in your money managements corner, as well as be able to spot an opportunity when it pops up, which is a lot of the problem with EA’s.

I didn’t answer your question with regard to the turtle system, because although I’ve heard of the turtle system, I use my own system from ideas and rules I got from other traders who have a lot in common with how I trade. Having said that, I did use someone’s system when I first started, (that was of course after I went through what you seem to be going through, (why not just use signals, they give you entry, sl and take profits). A system and rules alone will not remove emotion from your trading. Gathering the facts, looking at your options and picking the least of the evils along with a healthy dose of experience is what will do it. There are no short cuts. Like I said the 100’s of thousands before you and me, looked as well and the ones that are still around know it doesn’t exist.

I don’t differ with 1+1 = 2, that’s not the problem, in trading. The problem is 1+1 is not always the only way or the best way to get to, two. Sometimes its better to get there by: 1 x2. 4-2, 6-4 etc. I differ with your assumption that the rules are only fixed one way. Think about this you go long on eurusd cause where ever you got your information from says that’s the play. Enter x, stop loss x, tp x. 10 minutes later, the pair is still trending up and going to hit your tp. Now what? Some people would let it hit, then start over, some will use a trailing stop, even all that might change with a breaking current event. As well the other way, you’re going long, you enter, boom there is a massive candle going the other way or worse you got stopped out, when all that really happened is someone unloaded a large position. and in the next hour it would have hit your tp if you were still in the trade.

You would be right if everyone traded the same exact way, situation and experience. But again that’s not reality.

You are correct on a couple of counts, especially when it comes to “cherry picking.” How does one show an example unless it is shown from the past? Any example shown from the past will therefore be “cherry picked.”

[quote=“snake24,post:15,topic:61322”]

Here, I think, you have made an error. The “Turtles” were all given the same system, instruction and capital to begin trading. Their results, however, were widely disparate. Some made millions. Others blew their ride. Some couldn’t handle the stress and simply walked away.

They all were given the same rules but they didn’t all follow them as instructed. I am sure that some actually thought they were following the rules to the letter but, as they eventually found out when the money was gone, they were not.

You said it was an experiment in nature v. nurture and that nurture won. I disagree. Nature won. They were all nurtured the same and those that had the ability to trade successfully did so. Those that did not, failed. The Turtles experiment was a lesson in financial Darwinism. Only the fittest survived.