Overwhelming Scepticism About Trading

I think you’re right. That is the way I see it.

I speak about that only on forums like that, about forex and cryptocurrency and probably with my family and closest friends. With all others I talk like I am doing something online and that’s it. That way you will avoid useless talks. If he asks directly about that with interest - another story.

Trading is like gambling,

There are the players and there is the casino.

Be like the casino.

I doubt anyone would be skeptical if you told them that you wanted to open a casino.

Risk is involved in everything, even full time employment and opening a casino.

Most people are foolish and settle for an average life.

If trading doesn’t work out for you, that is no big deal. Just keep your risk manageable while you find out and move on to the next thing.

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Nice post.

Even if you dont make money from trading.

You could simply keep doing it because you like it and ignore the naysayers.

People spend money on their hobbies and entertainment all the time.

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trading is a very old activity
forex trading is no different
but i am certain that they are hidden forces that control the channel of the price
when you see price taking a downtrend and the moving averages crossing each other and concurring with the trend and suddenly you have a furious spike upward taking with it all the stop losses and maybe closing accounts you know then that they are hidden forces doing that
so what to do then
stop trading or look for opportunities when the big players are moving so you can tag along
because the hidden forces do not mess around with the big players
this industry is very dangerous if a person is too greedy

The forex market is too big that wiping out private retail traders is of any advantage or even possible. It comprises about $5 trillion per day of trading value. Retail trading appears to be worth about $150 billion per day. That is about 3% of the total market. At this level, it is not worth the major players even wasting time daydreaming how they might move the market to take our money.

read my post very carefully
i am not talking about the big players
i am talking about that thing that raise the price up 50 or 100 pips up when all indicators and traders sentiment says the price is oversold
150 billions per day is an amount that can excite any bank robber

Of course price can be manipulated if a big bank or a big bank consortium go for the same strategy at the same time with driving price up or down as an objective. If they do this, their target would be another big bank or an entire currency or commodity, not private retail traders.

As far as an individual broker is concerned, they cannot move price with the tiny capital they have but they can move their quotes. So why would they do this? If they bump their quotes 100 pips above an overbought underlying market, they may well shake out a lot of their clients’ short positions. But they also invite these same clients plus all the others who were never short anyway to suddenly get short at a massive 100 pip discount to “fair price”. so what’s the point? They’d be taken to the cleaners.

If you think your broker spikes prices when you are short, then either switch to another broker or keep a sell stop above your position so that if a spike occurs, you actually profit from it.

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Hey I would disagree here. The reason why most the standard indicators are not that useful is because they simply re-represent price. Whereas the change in price in one period is not a good predictor of future changes in price i.e. the auto-correlations of price price movement is low.

Price movement is generally random especially in the lower time frames M1 M5 etc
 i.e. price movement is Markovian:

That it is why the best way to model/estimate future price movement is to use Geometric Brownian motion (Wiener Process).

To have a level of predictability on where the price might go in the future based on the past prices you should use a simple moving average to establish the trend; this is the drift:

But also allow for the fact that interim price movement will be quasi random about the normal trend. To find your edge you need to quantify the drift (general average direction) and also allow for the randomness.

If you imagine a situation where the price is trending up with low volatility in randomness (low standard deviation) these are the conditions where an indicator will be useful by providing a clearer picture on price action for entry and exit signals.

If the volatility in randomness is very high on the other hand, then it’s anyone guess where the market will go. The pair might be going in the direction of the trend but who can say it won’t knock you out on your stop loss before doing so.

The best way to describe and quantify the risks of this happening i.e. find your edge is to use those variables:

Future price (@ time T) = Drift + (Random Price Movement)

and model the probability of a successful trade by doing numerous trial runs: Monte Carlo Simulation.

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I generally agree with @tommor s points here.

thanx guys for your good explanations

i found this while reading about OBV indicator

Analysts look to volume numbers on the OBV to track large, institutional investors. They treat divergences between volume and price as a synonym of the relationship between “smart money” and the disparate masses, hoping to showcase opportunities for buying against incorrect prevailing trends. For example, institutional money may drive up the price of an asset, then sell after other investors jump on the bandwagon.

this is what i was looking for something that does confirm what i am talking about
and this is what retail investors should be aware of
they are 2 trends
the trend of smart money
and the trend of the disparate masses

I find this as a very good question and looking for some answers from other traders. Usually, I just mention through conversation that I do trading, but not going deep into topic. Some people are very sceptic about it, as they see Forex market as a gambling

Personally, I dont dwell too much time wondering what other people may think :slight_smile:

I do me, and that is all what matters.

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Woah, lots of information here, thanks for sharing!

Demo trade. What could it hurt other than your time. See if it fits in your life and interests, and take it from there.

Maan! This hit me hard pal.
Thanks.

Of course, yes, a lot of people laugh at your passion for trading, and that’s what makes you just start to hide what you’re trading because that’s what keeps you from asking unnecessary questions, jokes.

In trading in general, one should be careful, because people really often face misunderstanding and skepticism. For many people, trading is not serious, but if you tried it personally, you would probably change your opinion.

It seems to me that many people are hiding something else that they are trading in order not to spread about their income. Because you can quickly get good profits here and not pay taxes, so you really don’t want to tell anyone about it


Few people take trade seriously, for almost everyone this is an entertainment, a casino, and money can be easily lost, even my best friend talked me out of it, so really at some point realized that I should keep quiet about it