Well at least it didn’t take you 297 pages (or however many it was i.e. ‘Parabolic SAR - that’s all!!!’) to come to this conclusion!!! LOL!!!
But I’d say ‘not so fast buddy’!!! What IF it were possible to PREDICT the MOST LIKELY (PROBABLE) direction that a market is going to move in for a given period (let’s say for the coming week for example)???
Take a look at this link:
Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox Online Store
Take a good look at the chart example (sort of top, right, under ‘My Account’ and the asking price for the indicator). That’s a daily chart. If you were presented with such a chart and believed that there was a very high probability of the ‘price reflection’ being correct: then which Parabolic SAR trades are you going to take (short or long)???
I don’t have a definitive answer as to whether or not Wilder’s ‘Adam Theory’ has merit or not. But I’ve decided to begin tracking it / checking it on a WEEKLY basis just to see if there is any merit to it. If there is: it could most certainly change a lot of things (not only this system of yours). I’m very sceptical about things such as this but there are many reasons that I’m now thinking that maybe, JUST maybe, there’s something more to this type of thinking and that it’s not just ‘mumbo jumbo’ or ‘wishful thinking’ on Wilder’s part. I didn’t know this but he’s not the FIRST and ONLY person to have come up with such a theory which I’ve now found out. Fractals, Fractal Geometry, Geometry, The Delta Phenomenon, etc. etc. etc. I’m not saying that this is an ‘exact science’ (neither does Wilder) although, ASSUMING that the chart example is NOT ‘cherry-picked’, it would have been a ‘no brainer’ to go short at the open on the Monday, set your SL to 2% of your account, and take profit just before the close on Friday OR take only short trades for that week (barring one or two days) with whatever trading system you were using. Alright: the chances are that the example IS ‘cherry-picked’ unfortunately. However: it would be easy enough to backtest for any period given the time and the effort (or given TradeStation)!!! LOL!!! And that’s another thing that’s ‘perked my interest’: BARRING only two ‘Adam’ or ‘price reflection’ indicators for MetaTrader (that ‘sort of work’) there seem to be dozens available for TradeStation (and other ‘price reflection’ or ‘geometrical’ indicators). I don’t know if that means anything. What I DO know is that TradeStation is what ‘the main dudes’ use (at least for trading stocks and futures anyway). So I have to ask myself: why would ANY PROFESSIONAL trader be even REMOTELY interested in something like this??? Alright: my ‘value system’ or things that I take into account when assessing the validity of something MAY be (to some anyway) ‘questionable at best’. But let’s see anyway. It’ll take only a few minutes, over a weekend, to ‘plot Adam’ for the coming weeks. And who knows what the outcome may be. Put it this way: ANYTHING that eliminates even a quarter of the whipsaws from any system would have my ‘vote’ as it were!!!
Anyway: enough about ‘Adam’ (it probably doesn’t belong here anyway).
I would agree with you: there are better ways (systems) of making money but that require more time and effort (that I think we, including you, all knew from the start). But: the way you worked on this and tested it and presented your findings was great and I believe all the encouragement etc. was well deserved. And as I say: I don’t, at THIS stage anyway, think that ‘all is lost’.