Well said Dale, I know I have fallen for the “addiction” of trading. And recovery was long and painful till I also reprogrammed myself to “invest” in the market. 
It sounds like you’re on the right track.
I’ve attached a (Metatrader) graph for you - just to be sure.
Regards,
Dale.
Hey, thanks a lot for the reply .
So this is what the EA is indeed doing.
I’ve tried out different period and symbol when backtesting and I realised the profit/loss really changes.
BACKTEST RESULTS
With an account of 2000$ on FXLite, using 0.2lots per trade, on a daily chart
GBP/USD ------------------------
On this last month: +370$.
On the eight last months : +3200$.
From 2000.01.01 to 2001.01.01: -1890$
EUR/USD ------------------------
On this last month: +35$.
On the eight last months : +430$.
From 2000.01.01 to 2001.01.01: -1910$
GBP/CHF------------------------
On this last month: +85$.
On the eight last months : -475$.
From 2000.01.01 to 2001.01.01: -1810$
So the results seem kinda random sometimes 
.
But it does look to work well on the recent periods.
Hey SpacePip:
Sounds like you understand well what I mean!!!
Don’t get me wrong. I’m still really enjoying the ‘thrill’ of ‘investing’. I mean to say - it’s the first time in my life that I have chosen a job or profession or hobby or anything like that - that has the POTENTIAL to put me in the financial position that I’d like to be in - but - it sure isn’t easy money.
Anyway - there are NO lists for tonight would you believe!!!
Looks like I’ve (almost) run out of pairs!!!
Put it this way - the only two that I DON’T have at present are USD/RUB and EUR/CAD but EUR/CAD looks like it’ll be there soon.
Message to self (and everyone else of course):
[B]It seems like there are still some lessons I have not learned and have not yet perfected the discipline required:[/B]
Once again: I tried to ‘second guess’ Parabolic SAR today and thought I’d get ‘greedy’ and ‘clever’ so I opened two new positions because my ‘gut feel’ told me that Parabolic SAR was about to be penetrated. The positions were GBP/ZAR (of all things to make a mistake on) and CHF/JPY (see one of my messages of earlier today). Well - needless to say - both of these positions are now sitting in a ‘handsome’ loss!!! I also ‘second guessed’ USD/JPY earlier today but the first Parabolic SAR dot has just appeared now tonight SO I’m lucky on this one. Do not try to second guess this indicator. It’s amazing how it’s ALWAYS right and I’m ALWAYS wrong!!!
Anyway - I’ll open a second position on USD/JPY now - because Parabolic SAR tells me to!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hello again [email protected]:
Are you happy now that your Expert Advisor is working? Did you have it right?
Those figures are not too bad are they?
One thing I don’t understand about your report are the huge losses ‘From 2000.01.01 to 2001.01.01’. Are those dates correct? Was the data correct and complete for those periods (that’s a long time ago). I hope there WAS a problem with the data - otherwise - I’m done for - and so is my ‘project’!
The figures for the last eight months are not too bad are they? I mean - they’re not ‘spectacular’ but they do show a profit even on only 3 pairs - I’d love to know if there was a quick way to test my entire 44 pairs - but unfortuantely - Delta does not use Metatrader - and the other broker where I have an account that uses Metatrader only has the majors.
Edit:
Let me add this: there are MANY other ‘systems’ on this (and other) forums promising 100+ PIP’s per day. I have never tried them - so I don’t know if they work - but - they probably do for the most part. I was just looking for a ‘low maintenance’ ‘sure’ indicator or ‘system’ and this appears to be it (although - if the truth be told I’m spending a hell of a lot of time on this ‘low maintenance’ thread)!!! No problem! Enjoying every minute of it!
Regards,
Dale.
Last post for tonight!!!
As detailed in the attached chart I must admit that I’m getting kind of ‘jittery’ right now.
I mean - take a look at the attached chart - and you will notice that because of the volatility in the markets over the past week or two or three - the difference between your Parabolic SAR entry point and Parabolic SAR stop loss is HUGE on all of the majors - and now I see that the Indices are moving ‘south’ as well. I’m REALLY hoping that it’s just because it’s Monday - otherwise - there is some REAL drawdown coming my way. Gold and Oil are also not helping my cause (AUD/CAD/NZD/ZAR)!
Right now I’m on around $12K and yesterday (last night) I was on around $30K or something like that just after market open. This is not for the feint hearted I can tell you!!! Admittedly - it’s been jumping around between those two extremes the whole f*****g day - I told you - I HATE Mondays!!!
One source of comfort is the fact that even in a situation like this - Parabolic SAR SHOULD accelerate MUCH faster - thus either locking in profits earlier - or reducing the potential loss if you get stopped out. I would say that this is a very ‘extreme’ test of the validity of Parabolic SAR wouldn’t you! If it can handle this volatility and not wipe me (us) out - then I’m (we’re) home free!
Regards,
Dale.
Dale, forgive me if you already answered this question. I’m making my way though the thread. But, regarding entry. Once you know you are going to get in, do you enter on a market order? or try to get in at a set price, say the open price for the new sar? Thanks
Good Morning.
SpacePip:
As soon as the first dot appears you enter with a market order and place your stop loss at the current value of Parabolic SAR i.e. at the same price as where the Parabolic SAR dot has just appeared. This (your stop loss) gets moved every day until you get stopped out.
Actually - there is another idea that I have been ‘toying’ with - and that is to place stop orders while Parabolic SAR is moving in one direction at the value of the current Parabolic SAR dot. In other words what will happen is that when you are first getting into a trade you sort of ‘shadow’ Parabolic SAR with stop orders and then when the price reverses you’re right there when it does i.e. you are in early. The drawback of doing this could, however, be that your order is executed on a temporary reversal i.e. a new Parabolic SAR dot has not yet appeared so you theoretically would be entering a position before a new Parabolic SAR dot has appeared indicating a reversal (although - if you cannot help yourself like me - then this argument is purely academic wouldn’t you say ala GBP/ZAR which is now showing an even more ‘pristine’ loss)!!!
Now:
Another message to self (all):
Nice surprise this morning. Not!!! Nett loss on all positions currently around -4K!!!
Now - had I not been using THIS indicator AND sticking to the rules AND not had enough margin to (I hope) ride out the ‘storm’ I’d be closing out positions like mad BUT I have not been (nor am I near to being) stopped out yet - so - don’t touch!!! Now this is either an EXTREMELY brave thing to do - or an EXTREMELY stupid thing to do - I don’t know - but I’m sure I’m going to find out either way in the next couple of days!!!
‘In Parabolic SAR We Trust’!!!
*F**k it’ (shouts out loud)!!!
I need to go and check one of the economic calendars (I only do this when I’m in the ‘s**t’ to see if it may get any better or worse).
Would you guys is the USA PLEASE start buying houses - you’re messing up my profits and my ‘system’. Hell - I’ll even lend you the money (out of the profit I’m not making right now of course)!!! Actually - now there is an idea - why don’t you all just go and sign as many ‘Offer to Purchase’ documents (that’s what we call them here anyway i.e. it’s just a statement of intent to purchase a property - you can always cancel it next Monday morning - I just need about an hour to close all of my positions and take profit - so please give me a ‘heads up’ before you cancel) as you can between now and Friday - and let’s see if we can move the markets - that’s an interesting idea and excercise :rolleyes: ???
Actually - I’m making light of this - but I’ll bet my current loss that stuff like this goes on all the time (I know it does with Gold and the big banks that’s for sure).
Actually - I’m removing my avatar picture - I don’t want HER associated with this dirty business.
Regards,
Dale.
I can see from the results posted that stop loss/ stop at the start are large. This seems to be the nature of the parabolic. The stops then accelerate as the trade progresses and the stops are now more manageable. So if the trade turns against you at the start and hits the stop loss the loss appears to be substantial. Goes against a trading/ money making mantra of keeping losses small and letting profits run. Guess the values need to be played with in order to tighten them.
Am I reading this right and if yes any suggestions on how to tighten the stops.
Spacepip,
Does MT4 plot range bars and chandelier stops.
Dale,
You asked about chandelier stops. Hope you googled and found the info. Also go to leveragefx.com and watch their video on stops. Quite enlightening.
Hi byculla,
For interest sake I have ‘messed’ with what would be called ‘prudent’ money management and this indicator and it has not worked.
What I’m saying is that Parabolic SAR is supposed to take into account the historical price action and then calculate it’s value / acceleration factor based on that. On the few occasions where I’ve set a sort of ‘fixed’ stop loss like 20% or 25% I’ve always been stopped out and then the price has continued going in the direction that it was going prior to being stopped out. Then of course you wait for the Parabolic SAR direction to change and the same thing happens and - at the end of the day - you’ve lost.
I’ll tell you something for nothing:
Probably the best way to used this indicator is to ‘switch off’ or ‘close’ any window that is displaying your current profit / loss on your positions. In other words - you worry purely about trading and the charts - not the figures. I must admit - I couldn’t do it - but it’s a valid ‘strategy’ I’m sure.
What do you think?
Radical?
Regards,
Dale.
I must just add this again (and I suppose it does give me some comfort).
There is a definite correlation between the Indices and the profits / losses that I’m currently showing on my forex pairs i.e. Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Gold down - profit on forex down.
Now I don’t know if this is just because of the pairs that I have open positions on and the direction of these pairs or if this is a ‘rule of thumb’.
What I do know is that just as soon as these idiots on TV stop banging on and on and on about all the bad things happening around the world - and stop perpetuating this ‘fear’ environment - then the Indices will turn up again - and so will my forex profits (I don’t have this problem on the Indices - as a matter of fact - the more ‘up and down’ they go - the better for me - I’ve learned how to make profit both ways - FINALLY) 
!!! Imagine - no TV - you’d never have to go short on stocks!!! That’s ‘true’ investing!!! (Please don’t tell me I’m talking s**t - I know I am - but - I do believe that the likes of Bloomberg and CNBC do far more than just reporting market actuality. I’d like to know how many people globally actually take what is reported on TV into account in their trading decisions - I’d wager it’s quite a few - and - like everything else in the market - it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy does it not). To demonstrate my point: what do you think would happen to GBP/??? if somebody on Bloomberg said that the BOE has just raised interest rates to 10% - and then a couple of seconds later that same somebody came back and said ‘only joking’? I’ll wager that there would be a very nice ‘spike’ in the price.
Edit:
I know I’m off topic here but I rest my case!!! The German IFO figures are slightly better than last month ACTUALLY but because they are worse than expected by a bunch of ‘effing analysts’ (nice work around hey) it creates a problem. If you don’t believe me - have a look at any of the economic calendars and you’ll see what I mean.
Regards,
Dale.
Just thought I’d let you all know that I’m not quite as ‘comfortable’ at the moment!!!
I’m starting to see ‘cracks’ in the armour!!!
I’ll post later on.
Regards,
Dale.
Hmm, how do I check if the data was correct ?
Yeah, actually, I really hope there’s a problem somewhere because I really like the idea of your method (because it’s so simple ).
Here is a screen from a backtest on a Daily chart with the GBP/USD pair. (2001.02.28 => 2001.05.28)
You can see all the trades’ info in the table.
On the chart, the red arrows show where the trades are opened.
The purple arrows show where they are closed.
The figures for the last eight months are not too bad are they? I mean - they’re not ‘spectacular’ but they do show a profit even on only 3 pairs - I’d love to know if there was a quick way to test my entire 44 pairs - but unfortuantely - Delta does not use Metatrader - and the other broker where I have an account that uses Metatrader only has the majors.
Indeed, the results on the last eight months are not too bad, considering it’s just on one pair.
I don’t know how you could test your 44 pairs, the only option I see is to analyze them one by one… But, way too long to do.
Anyhow, if I can, I’ll be backtesting some other pairs, but first, I have to figure out if the data- as you said- is good.
Hi folks (it’s not a good morning for me)!
Well - if anybody has been following me (which I hope you have not for your sake) you’ll no doubt have realised by now that the global ‘carnage’ on stocks has caused more than a little anxiety over here.
I did not post last night because I sat up for half the night ‘gob smacked’ while I watched my almost $30K profit from Sunday night dwindle to what is currently a -$34K loss - and that’s only half the picture!
I am not allowed to let my free margin percentage drop below 30% at Delta so I had to sit up and close positions one by one as the margin percentage dipped below 30% and had to keep doing this until things stabilized (it’s currently back up to 107%). At first I started closing the profitable positions so as to not lose the little bit of profit left but soon I was forced to start closing the losers one by one as well which I did from smallest loss upward. I’m not sure how much I had to write off but it does not look like it was a lot fortuanately.
Now I need to examine (today) why my ‘system’ and Parabolic SAR failed me (if indeed it did or did I fail myself) and I will post the results for you.
So far these are the things that I’m suspecting:
[B]Not enough margin (if you can believe that) and overtrading the account.[/B]
This I did not see as a problem because I ‘thought’ that because of all of the pairs I had open I was in a sort of ‘hedged’ position overall but not so. The idea was that the net change of all of the pairs would turn a smaller profit but profit nonetheless. It sure looks like I got to the point where ALL of the pairs were following each other - which would be fantastic if they all went in the ‘right’ direction for me BUT the problem of course is that ALL of them could start going in the ‘wrong’ direction for me as well which is currently the case. I mean - there is a ‘s**t pile’ of money in this account - where do you stop? When is enough margin enough? I mean I might have to start pulling some money from my Indices trading to push the margin up on my ‘forex only’ accounts and start this thing again - something which I did not think I’d ever have to nor want to do.
[B]Should the ‘Commdolls’ be included in a ‘system’ like this?[/B]
With the exception of USD/JPY the biggest losses (and I mean big) being shown now are on AUD/CAD/NZD/ZAR i.e. Gold price and Oil price dependant.
[B]Should I reenter now that prices have gone far beyond what was or what would have been my original Parabolic SAR entry point?[/B]
In other words - on the profitable positions that I closed - the price of those pairs is now better for me than it was when I first opened those positions i.e. now a late entry point as I described in an earlier thread. The same on the losing positions that I had to close out to protect margin.
[B]Should you trade with stops at all using Parabolic SAR?[/B]
This question has come up before. Yesterday two positions were taken out (the losses were small but be that as it may) and the price then continued in the ‘correct’ direction after that and this morning is still going in the ‘correct’ direction. Had these stops not been taken out instead of having lost this money I would at worst case be breaking even right now on those two positions. Also (and this unfortuanately is where emotion comes into it) I just cannot / won’t write off the MAJOR losses showing right now on USD/JPY, GBP/ZAR, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD (to name but a few)!!! Which brings me to my next question.
[B]Should this ‘system’ or should Parabolic SAR be used in a highly volatile market?[/B]
The reason I say (ask) this is that after looking at a lot of these pairs last night - MAJOR profits were made two weeks ago (remember my 50K) - because of the HUGE decline in stocks - and then - the reversal seemed to be coming - and - up until Sunday night / Monday morning this week things were going well BUT THEN - the ‘subprime fear’ seemed to creep back in yesterday - and at the moment is totally ‘screwing’ me. If I look back further i.e. to when things were ‘normal’ in the markets Parabolic SAR seemed to produce more consistent results than it is producing now i.e. less profits but consistent profits. The problem is that with the volatility of the past two weeks your entry points on a lot of the pairs are so far from the current value of Parabolic SAR that when a reversal or temporary correction comes (like it did yesterday and last night) you either need even more margin (and everybody has their limit and I’ve pretty much phsycologically reached mine) so that you can ‘weather out’ the correction OR you need to be OK with taking HUGE losses if this is not a temporary correction and is indeed a trend change or reversal OR … ??? I don’t have the answers right now.
[U]It is interesting to note however that I have not as yet been stopped out by Parabolic SAR on any of the positions (other than the two I mentioned earlier and both of those were the ones where the Parabolic SAR dots were forming in a straight line i.e. no ‘arc’ and the price has stayed very close to the value of Parabolic SAR over the past couple of days on those two pairs).[/U]
[B]Is it advisable to wait for Parabolic SAR to stop you out when there is a HUGE profit on the table?[/B]
I’ve felt very bad for myself and you guys on the two occasions when I have closed out all of my positions and taken profit because the profit was so high at the time i.e. I did not let Parabolic SAR ‘run its course’. This is what I was trying to do this time round but (at the moment anyway) it has not paid off. Is taking your profit figure at a predetermined amount or percentage not a ‘system’ in itself? Like I said before - every time I have used Parabolic SAR in the last two or three weeks or so - for the purposes of this thread - the BIG profits seems to come in the first two or three days - after that - the profit acceleration seems to start diminishing. Then again - is this not just because of the volatility (as mentioned above) that we are experiencing in the markets at the moment?
I don’t have the anwers to any of the above at the moment - I’m just putting my thoughts down - and - if you have any comments or input - it would be greatly appreciated.
Put it this way - I did not want you to think that I’d post and post and post and rave about Parabolic SAR while it was making a profit - and then abandon you (and the thread) when it turns out that maybe - just maybe - I’m (partly anyway) wrong in my thinking.
What I don’t understand is that Parabolic SAR (I am now using it for trading the Indices as well) is working perfectly on my Indices trading. I need to see why the difference. Could it be because I’m only trading three or four indices at any one time and for the most part I KNOW that they all go in the same direction ALL of the time? Could this ‘banging on’ of mine about the number of pairs actually be wrong?
It’s at times like this when my love / hate relationship with trading turns to hate I can tell you. This is one of those occupations / professions that takes you on a rollercoaster ride without a seatbelt and can totally mess with your mind and everything that you as a human being consider ‘normal’.
I’m sure hoping I’ll be looking at this message in a few days time and be feeling embarassed about it i.e. for being so down - and I hope I’ll be saying ‘Good Morning Everyone - see - I told you that this is the best indicator around’!!!
Regards,
Dale.
I think you may have had more success with a crystal ball.Seriously, mate,indicators are a complete waste of time as you have found out.
You seem to have broken most of the cardinal rules of trading,so I would advise you to look at price action on the daily chart and get to know a couple of pairs only.
Well done dpaterso. This system works very well - I can see for myself how profitable it can be. But it does show a few cracks when you decide when to take a win or stop a loss.
BUT what your system does is show the overall trend. Yes, exports, imports, the price of gold oil - intrest rates…whatever can put you in a bit fat loss all in one heap. Just think for yourself, how much you think you can lose on that trade because even if the parabolic sar shows that its going up - some random thing (like the central bank pumping money around) can burn your profits.
Personally i put a 10% stop loss of my bank per trade so i cant really lose a lot.
Good afternoon (morning) everyone!
Now, now, folks - let’s not get too hasty about this (man - I know - I should never post when I’ve had no sleep - and - when I’ve got a loss any bigger thant $1 on the screen - I go too far when I’m pissed off)!!!
One thing that I must re-iterate again: I closed those positions last night BECAUSE - I did not want to ‘upset’ my broker - not for any other reason - ESPECIALLY NOT because Parabolic SAR closed them for me at a loss!
And - after having a bit of shuteye - I now find myself looking at a screen where the ‘disaster’ of last night (or rather the ‘perception’ of a disaster) appears as if it was just that - a ‘perception’.
Message to self: get your sleeping patterns sorted out before you trade - that’s why pilots are only allowed to fly for a certain period of time without breaks i.e. lack of sleep makes us make irratic and stupid decisions.
Seriously though:
I totally disagree with you that indicators are a complete waste of time. I’ll agree with you on that statement for the shorter time frames - yes - no question - on the shorter time frames - price action is what counts - on the longer time frames however - totally disagree. True - they may only get you in late (we’ve covered this before) - but they do work - maybe not as well as a ‘sniper’ or ‘sharpshooter’ trading systems - but they cannot simply be dismissed.
After re-reading my message of this morning - the overall problem absolutely ‘screaming’ at me is: don’t overtrade - that’s all - and - at this point in time - whatever happened last night has absolutely NOTHING to do with the overall performance of Parabolic SAR.
Yes - I’m still sitting with a $25K or so loss at the moment while I type (let me qualify this by the way - when I say this - I’m talking about the loss being shown on my currently open positions - NOT that I’ve TAKEN a $25K loss) - but this is down from the $30K - $35K of this morning and I have loads of free margin now.
The strange thing is that my reaction last night was totally unwarranted i.e. I thought that at Delta you were ‘not allowed’ to let your margin percentage drop to below 30% otherwise you would be margin called. I checked this morning - and I totally had the wrong picture! What Delta calls a ‘margin call’ is actually a notification to you that your free margin percentage has dropped to below 30% not that positions will start being closed at this point (they email you and/or call you on the phone to tell you thus giving you a chance to either close some positions - which I did - or fund the account - BEFORE your free margin percentage gets to 0% and your positions are automatically closed. Nice hey - at my other two brokers - your very first notification of being margin called - is when your positions get automatically closed and your’re sitting looking at an empty screeen). All positions WILL be closed when your free margin percentage gets to 0% not when your free margin percentage has dropped to below 30%. Now I have just retraced my steps only to find that at no point - even when things ‘appeared’ to be going ‘pear shaped’ last night - did my free margin percentage drop to below 15% or so - so - I closed those positions for no reason at all. The end result is that now - it’s going to take me longer to get back to where I was on Sunday night / Monday morning because I now have fewer positions open - that’s all. Again - ‘screaming’ - overtraded - not Parabolic SAR. Also - true - having fewer positions has made me more vulnerable than I was before i.e. I’m still sort of ‘sure’ that I had some type of ‘hedge’ system (fund?) going so yes - I have to watch it now.
Anyway - I will wait for THIS Parabolic SAR ‘cycle’ to end - and then reduce my lot sizes slightly - and that my friends - should solve the problem.
Again - let’s not forget that the purpose of starting this thread - was for people like me - who have tried EVERYTHING in the book - and bought and read books - and looked at those automated system demos - and subscribed to every newsletter known to mankind - and nothing has [B]consistently[/B] turned a profit - except for the few occasions that I have used Parabolic SAR. Also - the thread was started to see if it was at all viable to have a simple ‘system’ - one indicator - that would sort of ‘maintain’ itself over a period of time leaving nothing to the imagination or ‘fear factor’ - and I still believe that this is it.
Regards,
Dale.
Dear Dpaterso
This is my first message in this forum; I am not so old trader on forex, but I already had bad experience with many systems promising big result…
I red all this discussion related on parabolic sar system. As I see it could be a good money maker, but need a money management to control drowdown.
I start today a test with 11 crosses on a mini account uning 0,01 minilots (Demo account on Iterbank FX) I will posy my result and I will be glad to receive your suggestion / impressions. I am thinking how to use trailing stop to take profit before the SAR inversion signal and then wait for new signal to re-enter in the market. What do you think about?
Regards
I am taking the time to learn the mental discipline of trading so i have not tested out as much stuff as i have liked to lately. Even though i don’t like or trust indicators as a rule i am going to try this one again. Day charts only. Buy/sell on the first dot only my exit strategy will be different that Dale’s. That in my humble opinion is the only weak point in his system. If one wants to err on the side of caution only buy or sell in the direction of a trend. Anyway thanks for the journal DP.
Hang in there, you have a great foundation on this system but it just needs a little changing here and there.
As a suggestion maybe there is a pattern that happens when you need to take a little off the table and let the remainder run. This way you are not completely out but you at least have a little in the bank in case they all turn and run against you. I currently use the PSAR along with certain times I trade (still have to work full time) and I do notice that the PSAR shows a little distress on the 8 hour meaning that new dots form and or become closer to the price, and if some are close and I am in the green I take a little profit and let the remainder run on the Daily chart. (sorry at work and can not post a chart till tonight)
Keep up the posts I enjoy reading them.