Parabolic SAR - that's all!

Dale,

u got it!! that is a very good thread i was sure u r going to come up with somthing that will turn every one’s eyeballs into dollar sigine!!.

I like your ideas but i think it is too many indicators that will limit your trade and u will probably have like 2 or 3 trades every month.I don’t mean that this is not a good work what u came up with no it is an exellent thing to have i will test all what u r saying and will check but again Decipline most of us doesnt have that!!!

Keep the good work and i think last week loss made u more wise!!!

Akram

Hello Akram,

Just have another look at my previous message - I have edited it with some ‘important’ edits.

Regards,

Dale.

Hi Dale

Thanks for more detailed information. It sure will help newbies like me. Keep up the good work. The past two weeks had been horrible for me. I want to wish you guys green pips and make some money.

Alan

Good evening (afternoon) all - Sunday night!

alan003:

Yes - I know what you mean - the last two weeks have really been lousy. I think the main reason for the quiet and range bound markets is because everyone is waiting for the Fed’s decision on interest rates which is (finally) on Tuesday. I’m going to ‘stick my neck out here’ and go against the opinion of every single analyst and ‘know it all’ in the business BUT I have just gone through my ‘Daily Parabolic SAR Checklist’ and if Parabolic SAR is anything to go by it would not surprise me if the Fed DOES NOT cut interest rates but leaves them unchanged. Like I said before - on the daily charts anyway - it’s almost ‘uncanny’ how Parabolic SAR is ALREADY moving in the ‘right’ direction BEFORE these major events and I can tell you that from my checklist the USD is starting to strengthen albeit very slowly against quite a few currencies which is contradictory to what will happen if the Fed cuts rates. Like I said - I may be making TOTAL fool of myself here BUT let’s see just how good Parabolic SAR is. Also - like I said earliet - Gold is ‘teetering’ on the ‘edge’ at the moment - which COULD also be confirmation of the above i.e. if the Fed cuts interest rates then Gold should keep moving up BUT if they leave interest rates unchanged then the ‘spectacular’ drop in the Gold price which I have been waiting for for weeks now is going to happen in ‘grand style’)!!!

Anyway - following on from the above - depending on what happens on Tuesday (if the last two weeks are anything to go by I don’t think anything exciting will be happening before Tuesday) - and based on our ‘new rules’ (RSI and Stochastics and MACD and ADX and ADXR - wow that’s a lot of rules) - there are some ‘majestic’ reversals coming this week - AND - EVEN WITH OUR ‘NEW RULES’ IN PLACE - we should be able to find a couple of ‘excellent’ trades (which I must admit has surprised me because I thought that with all these ‘new rules’ in place we’d be lucky to do ONE trade for the rest of the year)!!! My ‘Daily Parabolic SAR Watchlist’ is getting longer and longer and longer!!!

Check it out (this is just the ‘watchlist’ so for those of you who are ‘lurking in the shadows’ and could not be bothered to actually read the WHOLE thread - YES - YOU THOUGHT I DIDN’T KNOW ABOUT YOU - don’t go opening positions on the pairs listed below - it’s only the ‘watchlist’):

AUD/NZD*
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/NOK
EUR/NZD*
EUR/RON
EUR/SEK
EUR/USD
GBP/NOK
USD/BGN
USD/CAD*
USD/CHF
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
USD/SEK
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR*

  • Beware - ‘commdoll’ - wait for Gold and Oil to ‘decide’!!!

What I DO find ‘interesting’ is that by applying our ‘new rules’ it has kept me out of quite a few trades that I would have taken before ‘no questions asked’ and funny enough - one of them - is GBP/USD! Right now there is a Parabolic SAR signal to go short (I’m no longer going to refer to these signals as ‘valid’ UNLESS all of our ‘new rules’ are satisfied or our ‘new criteria’ have been met) BUT I have not taken it - let’s see how our ‘new rules’ play out on this one!!!

Of course - the sad thing is - no ‘valid’ trades tonight (and I closed all of my ‘pathetic’ positions on Friday night) - and THIS is where the ‘discipline’ and the ‘patience’ is going to play a BIG part!!!

Anyway - let’s hope we can ALL hit that big +100% mark by the end of the month.

One thing I am going to investigate further this week is the ‘tampering’ with Parabolic SAR’s default settings. The reason for this ‘change of heart’ is because I have noticed that RSI and Stochastics react far quicker than Parabolic SAR - SO - I’m thinking - would it not be nice to have a Parabolic SAR that reacts just ‘a tad’ quicker - and works ‘hand in glove’ with RSI and Stochastics??? I have played around with the default settings before and the problem is that you have to find a balance between getting even MORE false signals from Parabolic SAR AND getting it to accelerate faster (thus saving you PIP’s and getting an earlier entry or stop and reverse signal). I do believe that once you start changing the default settings then you have to start taking the actual ‘behaviour’ or ‘characteristics’ of each pair into account and this COULD become quite a ‘mammoth’ task BUT it’s worth looking at again I think.

Anyway - here is to a good week (month)!!!

(Ingot54: as you will no doubt have gathered I’m feeling MUCH better today (tonight) - I spent most of the weekend watching my music DVD’s - Nightwish, After Forever, Within Temptation, and, of course, Lacuna Coil!!! MAN - I CAN ALREADY TASTE THAT ‘AUSSIE’ BEER!!! By the way - I am ASSUMING that you get Captain Morgan over there???)

Regards,

Dale.

Here is another little ‘startling’ thing that I have noticed:

One of the reasons why Parabolic SAR MAY appear different at different brokers is because at some brokers you have a ‘Sunday’ candle while at others (the good ones) you DON’T have a ‘Sunday’ candle.

I’ve always known about this ‘Sunday’ candle but ‘the penny never dropped’ until this morning (as a matter of fact I feel like a total ‘idiot’ i.e. I have been ‘a b’itchin’ at Delta for the past couple of weeks because their daily chart takes an extra hour to ‘tick over’ and it now turns out that this is the reason why. If it ‘ticked’ over ‘on time’ as it were you would have a ‘Sunday’ candle and this ‘Sunday’ candle has the ability to totally ‘throw off’ any price based trading system that you may be following)!!! That’s why at Delta (for example) Parabolic SAR always seems to be ‘lagging’ Parabolic SAR at the (my) other brokers BUT when it gives a signal theirs is ‘more correct’ (for want of a better explanation). In other words - at the (my) other brokers - I’m getting (have been getting) reversal signals too early. Make sense?

Now a ‘Sunday’ candle being ONLY one day extra might not sound like it could make a difference BUT on the daily charts for example it’s NOT only one day extra i.e. you have and ‘extra’ ‘useless’ candlestick or bar every six days i.e. an extra Parabolic SAR dot is plotted so - in my mind - this ‘error’ is just compounded every week.

Now I’m not for one minute saying that this is the ONLY reason why Parabolic SAR may be plotted differently from one broker to the next but it could certainly be a contributing factor.

Just another little ‘pearl of wisdom’ for the week.

Regards,

Dale.

Dale, how are you buddy? I think I can provide the answer to your querie regarding different looking charts. Firstly, check lower timeframes to see if THEY are the same on different brokers. I bet they are.

The reason 4 hour and daily charts seem to show up different on different brokers is due to different time zoning and different candle open/close hours. In the system I trade, I wait till a new candle to open to enter a trade. Problem is, my new candle opens at different times to many others trading my new system (on the daily and 4 hour). Some will step to a new candle at 5:00pm (end of equity market hours), some step at 00:00am, some open the new candle at 8 or 9am (open of equity market hours). This will also vary depending on what timezone the broker is basing these times on. On the 4 hour charts, different brokers may use different 4 hour blocks.

This will affect what every candle looks like. A big move at the end of my day might be showing at the start of yours, for example. Now, if my candles’ open/close and high/low values are different to yours, our PSAR calculations MUST be different.

I believe this is why so many indicators, and indeed even the candles themselves, look so different on high timeframes across different brokers.

-Benjimang

Hiya Dale,
I can see that you’re back on form this week. Took me a while but I was finally able to get the alligator to work on Delta. Thanks again.

Hey Benjimang, thanks for the input.

I have the same situation i.e. two of my brokers update their daily charts at 06h00 here in South Africa (which is 00h00 New York time) but that’s not the issue that I had with Delta i.e. Delta’s four hour charts update every four hours (obviously) with the start of the ‘new day four hour chart’ being at 11h00 hours here (which is 00h00 Bulgarian time) BUT their daily chart only gets updated at 01h00 Bulgarian time (which is 00h00 here). I was unhappy with this (until now) and asked them to change it so that the ‘new’ four hour charts AND the daily charts updated at the same time BUT I have only just realised that it is BETTER the way it is i.e. there is no ‘Sunday’ candle on their daily charts unlike at my other two brokers. While this MAY be the reason (one of the reasons that Delta’s Parabolic SAR ‘display’ is different from the others) for the different Parabolic SAR ‘displays’ I don’t think it’s TOO serious (although remember that where you are getting a ‘Sunday’ candle that’s an extra Parabolic SAR ‘dot’ which should really not be there i.e. it’s based on only a few hours of an ‘abnormal’ trading day i.e. pretty much when you should not be trading anyway). On the other hand I use two of Mr Wilder’s trading systems on the Indices and stocks etc. etc. and these are price based and I only realised today that on a Sunday/Monday I’m actually getting incorrect signals from these systems (although they still make profit 99% of the time believe it or not) i.e. they take into account the close yesterday and the day before and then generate a signal BUT the close of ‘Sunday’ is actually a ‘misnomer’ so what I will NOW resort to doing is ‘combine’ Sunday and Monday for these trading systems. You must remember that ALL of these indicators (including Parabolic SAR) were ‘formulated’ on the basis that you have an actual market close and a couple of hours later the market opens again i.e. the next day (unlike what we have with forex where it is 24/7 really). In other words - Parabolic SAR should NOT give you more than five ‘dots’ per week BUT if you’re getting a ‘Sunday’ candle ‘no matter which way you slice it’ you are getting ‘closer’ to the reversal point than you should be at the end / beginning of any given week. I’m not sure if that all makes sense (well it does to me but I could have this wrong - not sure).

Hypechic: yup - back on form. Sorry you had ‘hassles’ installing that (although I did my best to make it as ‘streamlined’ as possible). Just remember that the ‘true’ Alligator has the lines or MA’s offset a different number of bars ‘into the future’ as it were so this is not a ‘true’ Alligator BUT it does use the same MA’s and seem to react the same way (possibly even quicker than the ‘original’ as a matter of fact) AND we’re not ‘Alligator’ trading here anyway i.e. it’s only to detect or confirm the presence of a trend and it seems to work fine for this purpose.

Later.

Regards,

Dale.

Yes Dale, I know our Alligator is not the true one but like you said it does serve the purpose of trend confirmation.

ok guys i guess it is monday again!!! moving is not that much today so Dale what is up? i know u closed all the postions last week so any new postions u opened or u just watching your wishlist??

Akram

Yes Hypechic, I know you know!!! (Only kidding)!!!

Just some more on the subject of indicators and the different brokers:

You know - we ALL (and that includes me) - just take for granted that the indicators that are presented to us are indeed correctly calculated.

Well - I’ve just done a little ‘excercise’:

I have manually calculated the True Range (TR) and Average True Range (ATR) for GBP/USD (for a seven day period as required by one of the trading systems) and I can tell you that the manually calculated TR and ATR differ greatly from what is being displayed on two out of my three trading platforms. While the difference MAY not be enough to make a ‘substantial’ difference to the ‘graphical representation’ of ATR - if you are concerned with the ACTUAL values of ATR - then you have a problem for sure!!!

I’m going to investigate this further though - who knows - maybe the RSI calculations are ‘out’ as well - and - maybe - Stochastics as well - and this COULD impact on our ‘new rules’ e.g. RSI MAY be being calculated as - let’s say 49 for example - on a particular trading platform - when it is IN FACT 57 for example - and this would make a difference - in our case - to taking a trade or not!!!

Let’s say at worst case - on a certain platform - ‘EVERYTHING’ is just a ‘little bit out’ but not enough to make a REAL difference if you are only using a single indicator or indicator value - BUT - put all of those ‘little bit out’ things together - and you have an ‘EVERYTHING’ that is suddenly ‘a lot out’!!!

Thoughts???

Regards,

Dale.

Akram,

I had a good ‘chuckle’ at the word ‘wishlist’ - I prefer to call it my ‘watchlist’ - but I think you’re right - it REALLY IS more of a ‘wishlist’!!!

And no - I do not have any open forex positions at the moment (at Delta anyway) although I did make a ‘teeny bit’ on GBP/USD this morning using ‘that other system’.

And don’t tell me that you are now also one of the ‘I could not be bothered to read the thread’ club members!!! I posted ALL of my ‘wishlist’ last night - take a look see - there are some ‘nice’ things coming I reckon - this week too!!!

By the way - just for interest sake - I am attaching the Gold chart for today (so far). Man - if I’m right - this is going to be a ‘text book’ trade (by ‘text book’ I mean it’s going to prove all of our ‘new rules’ 100%)!!!

Take a look at where RSI and Stochastics are on the chart AS WELL AS where ADX (the blue line on the DMI) and ADXR (the pink line on the DMI) - and - of course - our ‘beloved’ Parabolic SAR!!!. Man - when that blue and pink line turn down - are WE going to see some action - not only on Gold - but on all the ‘commdolls’ as well!!! (The ‘sad’ thing of course is that it’s going to make MY currency move down ‘a peg or two’ - which - on the other hand - is great - when I TP it’s in USD - so - the more ZAR for me - Ingot54: you should be thinking about this as well IF you have a USD denominated account that is - if you have an AUD denominated account - you’re ‘f****d’ - then I’LL be buying YOU a beer)!!!

By the way: my money’s on Soybeans today!!!

Regards,

Dale.


Dale,

My broker doesn’t offer oil do u have any charts for the oil is it going to be down soon? or the trend is up rgiht now? i wanna check the CDN it is going good with all the currency especially with the USD

Akram

Hi Dale and other enthusiasts-soon-to-be-wealthy! l:^))

I have sumarised your system Dale for easier reading (just my view) and to make it easier to print out. Hope you don’t mind. I think this is an extraordinary thing you have accomplished here - not without pain either.

I think there is a bit more room for refinement eg limiting the signals to either RSI or Stochastics but not both. This would give you simpler charting set-ups (more screen ‘real-estate’ to view) and I do not think it would affect profitability much … if at all.

Anyway, while it has not been declared ‘finished’ officially, there may still be time for me to muddy the waters (heh heh):

[B]Dale’s Daily PSAR

Daily charts only.

When a PSAR entry signals to go short ONLY take the position WHEN:

RSI is above 70 (or has been within the preceding 1 to 3 bars) AND is still above 50.
Stochastics are above 80 (or have been recently within the preceding 1 to 3 bars) AND are still above 50.
MACD has crossed down.
Akram’s ‘Alligator’ lines are NOT intertwined (or ‘look’ like they are changing direction). i.e. at very least the ‘lips’ (or green line) must have crossed the ‘teeth’ (or red line) and the ‘jaw’ (or blue line))
ADX is equal to or above 20 (and/or ADXR must also be above 20)

Assuming that an entry EVER meets ALL of the above criteria:

Once PSAR has ‘locked in’ profits on the daily TF, switch to the next shorter TF available and start tracking PSAR until stopped out. Do NOT stop and reverse at this point. The option remains to re-enter IF PSAR reverses again on this TF only if PSAR on the daily TF still has not reversed. i.e. position is not stopped out on the daily timeframe yet. NEVER stop and reverse i.e. wait for all of the above criteria to be met before taking another position.

When a PSAR entry signals to go long ONLY take the position WHEN:

RSI is below 30 (or has been within the preceding 1 to 3 bars) AND is still below 50.
Stochastics are below 20 (or have been within the preceding 1 to 3 bars) AND are still below 50.
MACD has crossed up
Akram’s ‘Alligator’ lines are NOT intertwined (or ‘look’ like they are changing direction) i.e. at very least the ‘lips’ (or green line) must have crossed the ‘teeth’ (or red line) and the ‘jaw’ (or blue line))
ADX is equal to or above 20 (and/or ADXR must also be above 20)

Once again - assuming that an entry EVER meets ALL of the above criteria:

Once PSAR has ‘locked in’ profits on the daily TF, switch to the next shorter TF available and start tracking PSAR until stopped out. Do NOT stop and reverse at this point. The option remains to re-enter IF PSAR reverses again on this TF only if PSAR on the daily TF still has not reversed.
ie position is not stopped out on the daily timeframe yet. NEVER stop and reverse
ie wait for all of the above criteria to be met before taking another position.

Additional guidelines:

Don’t base ‘entry’ on RSI and Stochastics - but base your ‘non entry’ on RSI and Stochastics. ie - If RSI and Stochastics are NOT at their limits then take the trade.
Put another way: - If RSI is above 70 and Stochastics are above 80, a PSAR entry signal to go long then that trade would be a disaster.
And vice versa: A PSAR entry signal to go short when RSI is below 30 and Stochastics are below 20 would be foolhardy.

As long as RSI is between 0 and 50 and Stochastics are between 0 and 50 - with both pointing up preferably - then take PSAR entry signal to go long - and if RSI is between 100 and 50 and Stochastics are between 100 and 50 - with both pointing down preferably - then take PSAR entry signal to go short. This would increase the number of ‘valid’ trades.

This will certainly limit the number of trades available - BUT - if all of the above criteria are met – it is almost 100% sure that the position is a ‘winner’.
[/B]

I did see your earlier comments … yes we do have Captain Morgan here in the antipodes, but in limited supply - the locals keep drinking the stuff - we have been experiencing severe drought here, and we are saving the drinking water to wash in … for as long as the rum lasts!

With best wishes

Ingot

Good evening (afternoon) everyone!!!

Nice work Ingot54 - thank’s (and by the way - I don’t know if you’ve just added it or if I just missed it before - but I really like your ‘signature’ or whatever you call it - you know - the line at the bottom of your messages - very ‘apt’)!!!

Akram:

You can find the various different Oil charts on Delta’s demo under the CFD quotes (it - along with Gold - are not live ‘yet’ though - but Delta’s quotes are ‘spot on’ when compared to ‘live’ Gold and Oil).

For what it’s worth - WTI Crude (October 07 contract) is at $80.48 right now - but I can tell you that the Oil charts are looking EXACTLY like Gold right now - I’ll attach one to this message.

Edit:

I’ve attached ‘real live’ Crude Oil as well (the ‘blue’ chart). I’d say it’s still in an uptrend - wouldn’t you?

By the way Akram - what is the CDN??? I don’t have it!!!

I for one cannot WAIT for the Fed’s interest rate decision / announcement - maybe THEN we can all get ‘back to business’!!!

Regards,

Dale.



Dale so sorry i meant CAD not CDN!!! sorry for that.

AND thank u for the oil charts.yes it is still on uptreand that is why the CAD is very strong now…

Igot:

Thanks for making thing simple of us and i agree with all what u r saying.i think this will be perfect for our system.I will try it and tell what i have so far

Regards,

Akram

Hello all,

I’ve just finished reading the whole thread which took me a few days to do, and it was quite a read. I may even go back and skim over it again. Everyone here has contributed a lot to this and I hope I can also. Great work all.

It seems that quite a few indicators have been added to the original pure parabolic SAR as losses were coming in the last couple of weeks. I will need some time to analyze and get my head round them before i coment more.

Over the last week I took the following pairs based on the Pure Parabolic SAR alone and although I was showing profit early on, they are totalling a slight loss now. But I am going to ride them all out and see how it goes:-

AUD/NZD - short
AUD/JPY - long
EUR/JPY - long
EUR/AUD - short
EUR/CHF - long
GBP/USD - short
NZD/USD - long
USD/CAD - short
XAG/USD - long

I am reasonably new to FOREX, 3 months only, and am testing a few systems/ theories on a demo account only. I hope I can help contribute to the excellent work done on this so far.

Thanks.

Hi Bocajunior,

Thanks for posting.

That’s actually more of what we need here now i.e. some current positions and everyones results. I mean to say - my results have been anything BUT good since the beginning of the month (pretty ‘poor’ actually) but then - as you all know - I’ve ‘bailed out’ early and closed positions and basically messed my ‘Parabolic SAR equilibrium’ up - so me posting any results or anything like that at the moment is a pure waste of time not to mention the fact that it seems like the entire world is just ‘hanging on’ to the Fed rate decision later today (tonight here unfortuantely).

Yes - more indicators have been added - and - as Ingot54 said - and as I suspected - it sure does limit your number of trades if you wait for ALL of those indicators to be ‘in synch’ as it were.

Look - the idea of adding the other indicators is pretty much to keep you OUT of trades that will PROBABLY turn ‘sour’ as it were - not to confirm entry points (if that makes any sense at all).

Like Benjimang said - it’s really to ensure that you are taking a position on a pair that is still in a tradeable range. As stated before - as an example - it makes absolutely no sense to take a position on a pair when Parabolic SAR is giving you an entry signal to go long when RSI and Stochastics are sitting at 100!!! Where DO you draw the line here? I mean - where is your cut off point? RSI < 50 or < 40 or < 30??? Stochastics < 50 or < 40 or < 30??? See what I mean???

Again - where do you draw the line??? I mean to say - I did NOT take a short position on GBP/USD as signalled by Parabolic SAR because all of our ‘new rules’ had not been ‘satisfied’ or ‘met’ and look what happened. I’m not saying it was a ‘text book’ trade BUT it sure looks like it would have made a decent (quick) profit (although on the other hand I do have a feeling that whatever profit COULD have been made in the last two or three days it’s going to be pretty much reduced nothing and may even turn to a loss IF the the Fed cuts rates today and you are sticking ‘doggedly’ to ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR i.e. using Parabolic SAR for you stop our stop and reverse point).

I need some additional input from everyone by the way:

Since I have been looking more carefully at some of the indicators available to us and checking that the calculations of their values are indeed correct I may have come up with something else - very simple - but looks like it could be profitable. What I want to know is this: do we start another thread for any new ‘findings’ or ‘ideas’ that come to mind or do we just continue adding to this thread? Maybe rename this thread? I don’t know that’s why I’m asking for input here. The new ‘findings’ or ‘ideas’ that I’m talking about have nothing at all to do with Parabolic SAR i.e. Parabolic SAR was just the ‘catalyst’ and these new ‘findings’ or ‘ideas’ just came to me while I was checking stuff for us on THIS thread. On the other hand - I’m worried that we might start losing the ‘momentum’ of this thread i.e. we have come together here on this thread - almost as ‘friends’ as it were - and I’m just worried that we may lose ‘momentum’ here if we have other threads running. Not sure. YOUR input required!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Dale,

Thanks for your response and I hear what you are saying about where do we draw the line on indicators and values etc, and I hope that’s something we can work out. Maybe each trader may have to make slight differences to his own system depending upon his appetite for risk. I am still looking at MACD just now but bear with me on that.

On the GBP/USD position, yes I saw that most of the additional indicators were keeping us out of this trade, but at the time I took it I was in KISS mode and going on SAR alone. And on this position we have an interesting sitiuation as you say, as the Fed could cut rates and possibly turn this into a loss.

This is a dilema we all face as do we ride this out or are we happy to take profits gained. I was toying with some thoughts on that, that if a certain amount of profits are realised, regardless of what SAR is saying, I may exit. This is something that i will have to work on. I think another poster commented that there was never a bad time to take profits.

In the meantime, any new ideas that are being worked on, I suggest to keep it on this thread just now (my opnion only) as it seems there is quite a following here with ideas a plenty. Maybe if we find the “Holy Grail”, it can be moved to a new thread.

Cheers all

Hi,

I too have been looking at MACD (for the past couple of months actually ‘off and on’). The ‘strange’ thing about MACD - that I have noticed anyway - is that is seems FANTASTIC at keeping you IN a Parabolic SAR trade i.e. it’s great at telling you whether or not you have just received a ‘false Parabolic SAR reversal signal’ but it’s NOT so great as a confirmation of a Parabolic SAR entry signal. In other words it seems to offer you good ‘protection’ once you are already IN a trade i.e. to STAY in the trade in the CURRENT direction but it’s not so great at confirming your entry.

Regards,

Dale.