Thanks Boca. Even though I’m trading a demo account, I’m handling it as if it were my real money and I got to thinking, if this was really real money would I be comfortable trading without a stop-loss? The answer was a resounding ‘NO’. It seems I don’t like risk as much as I thought I did. 
Hey Ingot54:
I hope you’re going to catch up on all of these posts today!!!
I’m starting to ‘be swayed’ in your MACD direction now - at least now I can actually ‘see’ the ‘f*****g’ ‘crosses’!!!
For the first time I ‘feel’ that we MAY be nearing the ‘end’ now!!!
BUT - NOW - just to ‘complicate’ matters more (you know - if it’s not ‘complicated’ - people will think its ‘c**p’):
I’ve had YET ANOTHER thought (well - not so much a thought - but a ‘simple’ solution to something that has been ‘bugging’ me):
For entry (we’ll put ALL of this together - like you did previously - in a ‘nice neat little bundle’ when we’re done):
You take a Parabolic SAR signal to enter ONLY if MACD has crossed AND (and this is the ‘new’ idea) the price - at the time of your opening the position - has not moved in excess of it’s 14 day Average True Range since the Parabolic SAR signal has been given (maybe even 2 x it’s 14 day Average True Range i.e. this is used in some other ‘systems’ for stop loss values).
Why?
See the attached chart.
This is yet another problem that I’ve had to deal with i.e. you get a Parabolic SAR entry signal but by the time you’ve got it the price has moved so far that the chances of a (even a short term) retractment are better than average so - what you’re trying to accomplish by adding ‘the ATR factor’ is to stay away from those entries where the move is due to a news ‘spike’ and the like and - in essence - is actually a false entry signal and there is an inevitable reversal coming and - if you’re really unlucky - that reversal is enough to stop you out - whereas - had you ignored the entry signal totally - you could probably get in a couple of days later i.e. a ‘late Parabolic SAR entry’ as I have detailed previously - at a better price.
How do you like that???
Edit:
Oh - by the way - maybe with your MACD idea - a ‘slight’ relaxation of our entry rules i.e. for long: RSI and Stochastics must be below 40 - 50 and for short: RSI and Stochastics must be above 60 - 50 i.e. a ‘relaxation’ of the ‘RSI and Stochastics at their limits’ rule??? I’m still of the opinion that if either Stochastics or RSI (and particularly both) are at their limits it does not matter WHAT MACD is saying you’re no longer in a ‘tradeable range’ to quote Benjimang.
Complicated enough!!!
Hey - maybe when this is finished we can write a book and sell our system (like one or two of the other ‘unscrupulous pric*s’ lurking around babypips)!!!
Regards,
Dale.
And this is for everybody:
I have attached my ‘Daily Parabolic SAR Watchlist’ (Akrams ‘wishlist’).
It has gone through some revisions as you can see i.e. lot’s more columns - let’s face it - the more columns it has - the more impressive and ‘complicated’ it looks!!! OK - the other columns are for other trading systems that I currently use and have nothing at all to do with Parabolic SAR except for the ‘PS’ column. The ‘PS’ column is simply the current direction of Parabolic SAR.
The reason that I’m posting it here is because I thought that you may find it interesting that by compiling this list on a daily basis it soon becomes very clear what the current trend is for a particular currency (‘major’).
In other words:
The red ‘ticks’ mean that on the daily chart Parabolic SAR is going down for that pair and the green ‘ticks’ mean that on the daily chart Parabolic SAR is going up for that pair (the blue ‘ticks’ are the pairs on the ‘watchlist / wishlist’).
So - you’re all thinking - so ‘effing what’!!!
Well - if you look very nicely - it’s real easy to see that the USD (for example) - is losing ground against ‘everything’ - and the AUD (another example) is gaining against ‘everything’ (Ingot54: MAKE IT GO DOWN). What this tells you (I believe) is that when you have 99% ‘the same color ticks’ for a given ‘major’ then it’s the ‘major’ that’s going in that direction. When you have a 50/50 split or so between the red ‘ticks’ and the green ‘ticks’ then it’s not the ‘major’ that is going in a particular direction it’s the ‘minors’ that are being moved for what ever reason.
And why does this mean anything to me? Well - if you get a new Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short on EUR/NOK for example and the EUR ‘appears’ to be losing ground against everything else then you can be ‘pretty sure’ that the signal is valid. Get it???
What I would like to see is the day that this worksheet has ALL either red ‘ticks’ or ‘green’ ticks - that’s when the ‘mutha of Parabolic SAR equilibrium’ has been reached!!! Imagine being able to go long or short on every single pair with an almost 100% certainty that they’re all going to be going in the same direction and then they will all reverse and go in the same opposite direction and just keep on doing this until the lights go out!!! If it ever happens - I promise I’ll post it again!!!
By the way - I alternate daily between light green/dark green and red/orange and light blue/dark blue. Why? Well - if you must know - it’s probably the most important detail on the ‘wishlist’ - it’s so that I don’t get bored everyday when I look at it!!!
Anyway - that’s what I work off everyday (forex) - use it - don’t use it - whatever - have fun.
Regards,
Dale.
PS - Thanks for whoever answered the ‘where do I put my stop losses’ question. I’m the last person that should have been asked that question ESPECIALLY when I don’t have any open positions AT ALL and am therefore not making any money (on forex anyway - you folks want to see the Indices - man - it’s a thing of beauty - and the best part - what goes up that fast - comes down equally as fast)!!! And - you just watch Gold - when it comes down - it’s going to be ‘1929 style’ - so - ‘AUD longs’ - watchout!!!
PPS - I’m sure we’ve reached the all time record on babypips for the sheer number of posts on a single thread!!! Is there not a prize or something for this???
Edit: Nah - I just noticed there’s another thread with over 700 posts - BUT OURS IS QUALITY!!!
Dale,
I’m pretty sure that was not your intention but thanks for making me laugh anyway. I’ve been having a pretty stressful day at work.
Well - as long as it brightened up your day!!!
Don’t stress (at work I mean) - if we can get this all together in one ‘monsta system’ - you people can all give up your day jobs and trade your ‘a***s’ off and get rich!!!
You know - a ‘powerful’ and ‘cohesive’ group like this could very well become something to be ‘reckoned’ with. I mean - have you ever seen or read about that story about a bunch of MIT students that took on the casinos in Vegas with their ‘system’ AND WON (to the extent where they were eventually banned and investigated by the FBI and all sorts of things)??? Hell - I’ve always believed that when the FBI is after you then you know you’ve hit ‘the big time’!!!
I’ve always ‘marvelled’ at that story.
Anway - it’s not impossible folks!!!
Regards,
Dale.
By the way - it’s not all bad - not having any forex pairs to trade at the moment - although I never thought I’d see the day when I made a couple of USD on Soybeans!!! I mean - how ‘lack lustre’!!! Imagine trying to impress someone over a couple of drinks at a bar: ‘So - what do you do for a living’? ‘Oh - well I buy and sell Soybeans and Pork Bellies’!!! That sure does not have the same ‘ring’ to it as ‘Oh - well I buy and sell Gold futures’ or ‘Actually - I’m a forex trader’!!! Then again - who gives a ‘continental’ - I made enough on Soybeans today to (at least) buy a bottle of Captain Morgan and maybe a prawn or two!!!
I have nothing better to do than post today (I’ll bet you’re all wishing that I had some ‘valid’ Parabolic SAR entries - well I don’t and I’ve already been stopped out - at a profit I might add - on the S&P, Nasdaq, and SOYBEANS)!!!
Anyway - I’ve attached the ‘current’ Gold chart - take a look all you ‘commdoll’ people!!!
Put it this way - if you can’t trade Gold and Oil at your current broker (oh - and Soybeans) - find one QUICK (unfortuanately that excludes my beloved Delta at the moment)!!!
By the way - if you think I’m ‘kidding’ about Soybeans (I was only kidding about ‘Pork Bellies’) - have a look at the ‘blue’ chart. I was short today because of Mr Wilder’s Trend Balance Point System - but - have a look at Parabolic SAR anyway!!!
Regards,
Dale.
PS - By the way Ingot54, if I’m ‘on the mark’ with this Gold chart - then - check out my itinerary:
10th Nov Perth, Metro City
12th Nov Adelaide, Thebarton Theatre
13th Nov Melbourne, Festival Hall
15th Nov Sydney, Luna Park Big Top
18th Nov Brisbane, Riverstage
How far are you from these place mate???
Well Ive got some reading to do, Im gone a few days and you guys have added a bunch of indicators to your charts.
Hey - listen - I spent the profits that I made on Soybeans yesterday - on a bottle of Captain Morgan tonight - now I’m ‘pis*ed’ - BUT I STILL ‘dutifully’ went through the ‘Parabolic SAR Watchlist’ (Wishlist) now - and - still - no entries!!!
And - TO ADD ‘INSULT TO INJURY’ - no ‘thoughts’ or ‘replies’ or ‘input’ or ‘a simple hello’ or anything like that from ANYONE!!! Thanks ‘mateys’!!! (‘Pirates of the Carribean’ and all)!!!
What’s with this!!!
Ingot54??? Akram??? (OK - ‘droesparky’ has been away - apparantely anyway)!!! Benjimang??? ‘alan003’??? Hypechic (Joan)??? Actually - ‘Joan’ - are you / could you be the first woman in our midst??? Like ‘Just Joan’ - from ‘Romancing The Stone’??? You know - Michael Douglas and all???
Now I’ve ‘had it’!!!
Dale.
Dale you should never drink and trade? its the law!
Hey - I drink BECAUSE I trade (OK - not ‘really’ true - but it was those Soybeans today that did it)!!!
Dale.
Yes Dale - Mathematicians should never drink and derive!
Seriously mate - I have been reading as much as I can, and simply can not contribute at times - my “day job” is actually permanent night shift Registered Nurse in Australia.
At this moment I should be in my bunk checking the eyelids for pinholes!
However, I wanted you to know that this is currently the MOST READ thread on Babypips - we are making a huge impact.
How do I know? My detective genes have shown me that you have had heaps of views recently on this thread, as well as plenty of folks having a peek at the charts posted.
So keep up the good work - at times it may not feel like it, but the progress is huge here. Just like a ranging market about to break out - the PSAR system is like a coiled spring - the “boinnggg” is just about to happen.
I live just one hour to the north of Brisbane, and we have a great highway connection. I am often in Brissie just for a day out.
My problem just now is finding time to read and post replies. I am certain there are at least 200 lurkers too - if only some of them would toss in some of the stuff they know, and that we HAVE to find out.
Hopefully they will lend us a helping hand as we struggle with some issues here.
Will keep in touch, and be assured that I am following this VERY keenly - and have nothing but respect for every single poster here.
With Best wishes
Ingot.
Dale
too much indicators now!!! i got lost really what r we doing now???
What is the sytem we r trading with??? what shall i look at please can u simplify it more in one thread!!! let us check it again
Sorry mate but i really got totaly lost.
Akram
Morning all,
Great Contributions yet again form everyone.
Akram, I hear what you’re saying about what is the latest set up as far as indicators and rules of entry are concerned. I think I need to go back and re-read the last 10 pages or so.
With the trades I’ve got open right now, they are all still in profit which is fanatastic but as i mentioned earlier I’m thinking of taking some profits off the table.
As for new entries, USD/MXN was a possible but I never took it as i really know nothing about this pair. I will see what happens when my new daily candle appears at 1200 Hong Kong time (30 mins away).
Let me read the thread again and get back.
Great work all.
Rgds
Scott
Good (not so good) morning (guess why)!!!
Anyway - thanks Scott - for the post.
I think that it would be appropriate here to make one ‘key’ point:
Please bear in mind that other than ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR everything else is still in the design / suggestion / testing / idea phase (not so Ingot54? Do you agree with me?) - in other words - you may take ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR - the ORIGINAL ‘idea’ that started this thread - and add to it as many (or as few) of the ‘ideas’ that have been posted along the way by everyone and see what works and what doesn’t.
On the other hand - I’M almost ready to ‘stake my claim’ or ‘take a stand’ and give a (my) definitive system - and I’ll trade that ‘to the letter’ - and post the results. I think that at that point (if we are all in agreement) that we should put it all together in an Adobe .pdf file and give it a version number. From that point on any changes that we all feel should / could be made will be added to / changed in the .pdf and another version number assigned - that way we (as well as anybody else new to the thread) will at least know what the ‘current’ system is and it will certainly make it a lot easier to track any changes from then onwards.
Make sense?
Happy with that?
Oh - sorry Scott - I have traded the USD/MXN pair before - it is EXTREMELY high yield - but has an EXTREMELY wide spread (it’s what ‘they’ call an ‘exotic’ pair if you did not already know). Back then I seem to remember that it pretty much trades in a wide range most of the time (I remember that I used this range to my advantage by opening a hedged position when the price got to the middle of the range and then TP one way and then the other i.e. I did not use Parabolic SAR).
Regards,
Dale.
I cant figure out how the MACD is going to help it seems to me the MACD give signal well after the parsar. Same with the stochastic.
ONly thing I found that confirms is the nonlagdot, and sometimes its before and others its after the parsar.
set length to 10 and colorBsrBack to 0, colorbarback set to 0 keeps it from repainting. Of course its a MT4 indicator Dale.
nonlagdotalert.zip (1.7 KB)
Hello droesparky,
I’m not sure I agree with you about MACD and Stochastics.
Put it this way - from all the charts the I’VE looked at - Stochastics definitely leads Parabolic SAR (and it would appear that it leads ALL of the indicators that I’ve tested here so far BUT it’s not an option to trade with Stochastics alone because Stochastics CAN stay at either limit for days on end while the price keeps moving BUT Stochastics is a very definite leading indicator when it comes to a change in the direction of the trend).
MACD on the other hand is confirmation of quite a few things - most importantly - the existence of and / or a change in the direction of the trend.
I’m afraid I have to agree with Ingot54’s MACD post.
On the other hand - why don’t you post a chart - and let’s see why yours is different to mine.
Regards,
Dale.
By the way, I’ve been meaning to post this info here for a while but keep forgetting:
� The Daily Reckoning Australia
I subscribe (free) to their newsletter which I receive via email everyday.
It is most enjoyable reading some of the articles - particularly because of the sometimes ‘candid’ way that they ‘put things’.
Anyway - I read it every day just to get a sort of ‘perspective’ on things like the Gold price etc. etc. but they cover everything on a daily basis from the price of metals to interest rates etc. etc. and what I find REALLY nice about it is that they don’t ‘talk down at you’ or use these ‘fancy financial terms’ like everyone else i.e. their articles are ‘understandable’ and ‘readable’ to EVERYONE.
They also post articles written by some really ‘in the know’ people e.g. Dr Marc Faber (yesterday).
I would ignore the advertisements though - you know - those ad’s that promise you the ‘inside track’ and everything - it does not detract from the good info that you receive daily - I suppose they - like everybody else - need some revenue to run the site - hence the ad’s.
Regards,
Dale.
Thanks for the Info on USD/MXN Dale. I didn’t take it in the end. No new positions taken today by my charts, but I still hold 8 open positions just now and everyone is in profit. Lets see how it pans out.
Cheers
Scott
droesparky,
I think it depends upon MACD setting, although I’m no expert on this, but dpending upon which broker you use the MACD can look very different.
If you look at the USD/JPY chart attached, the MACD has already crossed and it looks like ParSAR is a day or two away. So in this case, MACD is leading ParSAR.
All thoughts welcome
Cheers
Maybe Im wrong but I thought it was the MACD crossing the zero line, and not just the lines crossing.
USD/JPY is suffering from weak dollar right now.
If gold keeps going Im gonna pull my gold tooth and sell it 