OK - well - Iām āgrasping at strawsā here now - but - anyway - Iād like an opinion on what Iāve just found (again playing around with EMAās):
As a matter of fact - if there is anyone using MT4 and āknows their oatsā as far as backtesting goes then maybe somebody could do this for me and post the results (I canāt get the āf*****gā thing to work for me).
Well - itās a fact of life - that the 50 EMA (itās actually supposed to be the 50 DMA) and the 200 EMA (also supposed to be the 200 DMA) - are ākeyā levels for any stock, commodity, forex pair, etc. etc. etc.
SO - I got to thinking - and looking - again - and I think that MAYBE Iām onto something else here - something VERY simple:
Put a 200 EMA on any chart and have a look at what happens.
If you sell or buy the moment the 200 EMA is crossed i.e. you donāt wait for the price to close above or below the line - and you just keep repeating this āactionā over and over again - the end results āappearā to be as follows:
1 - If youāre wrong - you pretty much break even because the 200 EMA is very slow to react to the price changes.
2 - Youāre pretty much āimmuneā to any whipsaws or anything like that (obviously this only applies on longer timeframes).
3 - Youāre profits are nowhere near as big as they could (or should be) but it would āappearā that they are profits nonetheless.
4 - Because you āpretty muchā break even if the trade goes against you the only thing that you really lose (especially in a range bound market) is the spread so you can throw a great deal of margin at this type of trade as long as you can take losing the spread once or twice or three times in a row.
5 - If you want to try and maximise profits out of this your could revert back to using Parabolic SAR to take profits i.e. if the price is currently above the 200 EMA (you should be long at this point) you only take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go long (obviously the reverse applies if the price is below the 200 EMA and you are short) and you let Parabolic SAR ālock inā profits.
6 - You could try and use the 50 EMA for trend confirmation and profit taking but you get āwhipsawedā a lot of the time.
7 - This appears to work very well on highly volatile instruments with low spreads e.g. GBP/JPY, DAX, stuff like that.
Have a look- tell me what you think.
Iāll tell you - Iām about ready to throw in the towel with this ābullsh*tā.
Iāve looked at all the other systems as well (thanks Rob) and I just donāt see the merit there. For one thing - trying to use that EMA Step System - I canāt see the āf*****gā EMAās clearly enough on Deltaās charts to warrant even trying to using it.
I really need to perfect a system - or find whatever system - with very low drawdowns and a pretty much guaranteed (albeit small) profit percentage. Possible? Not sure.
Regards,
Dale.