Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[VonSmeid]

It is not much to explain.

I would have to zip it to make a bigger picture. dont have a Zip at the moment. So If you still wont understand I will do it for you.

So you see numbers in that chart. These are the end of the whole price number which is 2.3535 ( I wrote in just 3535). This is a closing price of the candle. I hope you understand this one. I also have some problems with english so try to understand me.

So this is how it goes. It goes with the flow.

1. trade: par SAR is under the price line. So you buy at the first par SAR dot. at 3533. Than you wait until the par SAR appears on the upper side of price line. That would be at 3642. That means that now you sell. It would make you 3642-3533=109 pips. So now you have sold the first trade.

2. trade: At the same price you sold at the first trade, now you will enter short and you will stay in the trade as long as par SAR is above the price line. When the next par SAR candel under price line appears you will buy back. This time you lost 20 pips. (3642 - 3662 = -20). At the same time you will buy at the same price for next trade…

Huh if you still dont understand tell me I would be glad to make it clear. This CHART is from the end of Avgust until today…

Sorry for all of mess I say…I will tell you anything you dont understand.

Ty

AK

[dpaterso]

Hello again,

(Where are you from by the way)?

Anyway - are you saying this:

When the first Parabolic SAR dot appears under a bar you buy and then when the next Parabolic SAR dot appears above a bar you sell?

Is that what you’re saying?

Regards,

Dale.

[VonSmeid]

Yes Sir, that is what I am saying. I am from Slovenia, EU (former Yugoslavia).

[CharlesLioe]

…and I do know that this ‘ongoing saga’ has benefited more than one person by allowing them to see - for real - what trading for a living can be like i.e. it’s not ‘get rich quick’ and it CAN destroy you if you’re not careful. It’s one thing reading about ‘trading psychology’ from a book - it’s another getting it ‘out of the horses mouth’.

by following this thread, i have learned much of my mistakes. i do benefit from this thread alot. so thanks alot Dale, and sorry for your loss, but i think we all had a bad week. i am now getting analysis-paralysis to find out what the heck went wrong and how to avoid it next week, maybe i come up with a better plan. its friday evening, we have 2 days to figure out something before its monday again for the next battle

btw, i was searching google for trend vs range, and found something interesting
Trading Trend Or Range?

after reading that, maybe we should try trading ranges using the psar on lower timeframes?
thats what i am going to do next week, lets see how this turns out, i hope i can post some good results, will keep you all informed

[pip_huntter]

It is not much to explain.

I would have to zip it to make a bigger picture. dont have a Zip at the moment. So If you still wont understand I will do it for you.

So you see numbers in that chart. These are the end of the whole price number which is 2.3535 ( I wrote in just 3535). This is a closing price of the candle. I hope you understand this one. I also have some problems with english so try to understand me.

So this is how it goes. It goes with the flow.

1. trade: par SAR is under the price line. So you buy at the first par SAR dot. at 3533. Than you wait until the par SAR appears on the upper side of price line. That would be at 3642. That means that now you sell. It would make you 3642-3533=109 pips. So now you have sold the first trade.

2. trade: At the same price you sold at the first trade, now you will enter short and you will stay in the trade as long as par SAR is above the price line. When the next par SAR candel under price line appears you will buy back. This time you lost 20 pips. (3642 - 3662 = -20). At the same time you will buy at the same price for next trade…

Huh if you still dont understand tell me I would be glad to make it clear. This CHART is from the end of Avgust until today…

Sorry for all of mess I say…I will tell you anything you dont understand.

Ty

AK

Ak

how r u. and welcome in this thread.i am sorry to find difficulties in knowing the system u r following but u know can u attach some drwaing for us to know more about your system?? if u can attach it can u send me through my email and i will hlp u on attaching them here so all of your friends here will know what u r talking about?

My email is <[email protected]>

thanks

Akram

[dpaterso]

OK - well - AK - nice to ‘meet’ you - I don’t know anybody from Slovenia - although I do take a keen interest in anything that happens in the Baltic Region and Russia (and Finland of course).

I’m not quite sure what to say about you’re discovery though. I’m really not sure what to say. Maybe someone else on the thread can comment.

CharlesLioe, thanks for the post - I’m going to have a look at that link now and if I have anything constructive to add I’ll post.

Regards,

Dale.

[pip_huntter]

Hello again,

(Where are you from by the way)?

Anyway - are you saying this:

When the first Parabolic SAR dot appears under a bar you buy and then when the next Parabolic SAR dot appears above a bar you sell?

Is that what you’re saying?

Regards,

Dale.

Hello AK,

sorry i asked u about the system you r following and i figured about u just answered my question is this is your rules for entry and exit to take any postion so i just wanted to tell u that this is what we r following since Dale started this thread and it works when the market is trnding like going up as a direction or walk down as a direction but it never wroked while the market goes in ranging like walking ups and downs.

Which we all find it a loss postion when we follow the PSAR blindly all what we need is that we need to know in advance wheather the market is trending or ranging as if it is trending then we will follow it blindly and we will open those postions till we get stoped but if we know from before that this is a ranging market then all what we will do is that we will go fishing or doing any other usefull things apart from lossing money!!!

By the way Dale PSAR is working trust it follow it and give it a try.

Regards,

Akram

[dpaterso]

By the way friends,

Did you know that this thread has been going since 27 July 2007 and we (now) have 117 pages and 1 169 messages and 28 920 views!!!

Man - time flies while you’re feeding the brokers!!!

Isn’t there a prize for these statistics??? Like about $17K USD (actually make that GBP)!!!

You know - the best part of it all - I’m still sitting here smiling !!! (I need psychiatric help I think)!!!

Thanks everyone!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

By the way Akram - thanks for taking the lead on that one my friend - I was speechless for a while there.

Dale.

[pip_huntter]

Hello again,

(Where are you from by the way)?

Anyway - are you saying this:

When the first Parabolic SAR dot appears under a bar you buy and then when the next Parabolic SAR dot appears above a bar you sell?

Is that what you’re saying?

Regards,

Dale.

Hello AK,

sorry i asked u about the system you r following and i figured out u just answered my question is this is your rules for entry and exit to take any postion so i just wanted to tell u that this is what we r following since Dale started this thread and it works when the market is trending like going up as a direction or walk down as a direction but it never wroked while the market goes in ranging like walking ups and downs.

Which we all find it a loss postions when we follow the PSAR blindly all what we need is that we need to know in advance wheather the market is trending or ranging as if it is trending then we will follow it blindly and we will open those postions till we get stoped but if we know from before that this is a ranging market then all what we will do is that we will go fishing or doing any other usefull things apart from lossing money!!!

By the way Dale PSAR is working trust it follow it and give it a try.

Regards,

Akram

[pip_huntter]

By the way Akram - thanks for taking the lead on that one my friend - I was speechless for a while there.

Dale.

Dale,

I am only here to help u my friend!!!

Akram

[Bocajunior]

Hello again

Here’s the latest on my positions. I’ve been away working so had no access to internet to change stop losses etc. I’m also on holidays now so have got a lot of reading to catch up on.

I see you guys are looking at other systems now. I must read through teh thread again.

I’ve been doing just fine on the old one though. Here’s the latest.

[U]Open Positions[/U]
USD/CHF Long

Currently in profit.

[U]Closed Positions[/U]
GBP/USD. Closed manually for a loss after Fed rate cut. -50 pips
USD/CAD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +350 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +5000 pips
AUD/JPY Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +180 pips
AUD/NZD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +190 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on daily PSAR. -5000 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +50 pips
GBP/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100
AUD/JPY Long Stop Loss on reduced timeframe for +650
EUR/AUD Short stop loss on reduced timeframe for +600 pips
EUR/JPY Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +700 pips
EUR/CHF Long Stopl loss on reduced timeframe for +150 pips
EUR/GBP Short Stop Loss for +50 pips
GBP/CHF Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +50 pips
EUR/USD Short Stop loss on PSAR for -100 pips

What can I say. Good profit all round but I am now left with only one open position due to my absence.

Cheers.

[jlmac27]

Is that for the week!and what about the +5000 and -5000 pips?

[dpaterso]

OK - well - it’s Saturday morning here - and - of course - I’m sitting back and going through the charts trying to see where I ‘f****d up’ this past week.

I have to turn things around - I don’t have a choice - so - wish me ‘luck’!!!

Anyway - the reason I’m posting this message is because I’d like to know if everyone else is seeing what I’m seeing and it’s this:

It seems that just about every single currency pair that I look at using our ‘total’ ‘old’ system (with the exception of the EMA’s) is either WELL overbought or WELL oversold (according to Slow Stochastics (14) and RSI (14)) and MACD is ‘trying’ to cross (in most cases) - and - if all goes well - Parabolic SAR has a day or two or three to go before indicating a reversal.

Please check for me on your different platforms and let us all know if you’re seeing the same things I’m seeing.

Does this mean that we’re in for MAJOR reversals or corrections this coming week? I don’t have the answer - and I do not trust my own judgement at the moment - so any input - based on research not opinion would be appreciated.

I DO know that the Indices are ALL pretty much overbought at the moment as well (specifically the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P not to mention the Hang Seng, FTSE, and the Nikkei 225) according to Slow Stochastics (14) and RSI (14). Does this or should this mean anything???

Gold (unfortuanately) seems ‘hell bent’ on continuing upward for the time being - although - if Slow Stochastics (14) and RSI (14) are anything to go by - then a correction is due soon (RSI (14) ‘looks like’ a failure swing high has occured and Slow Stochastics (14) have just hit overbought territory - again - and have started to turn down again). This is important because it affects the ‘commdolls’ like AUD/??? and NZD/???

Oil - I’m very unsure of at the moment i.e. all of the indicators seem to be in ‘no man’s land’ at the moment. This is also important because it also affects the ‘commdolls’ like ???/CAD.

I don’t know if this is wishful thinking at the moment but what we need is USD strength from somewhere. Gold will then correct, Oil (don’t know as the price at the moment depends very much on consumption or supply and demand in the USA), AUD/??? will correct, NZD/??? will correct, the JPY will weaken against the other major currency pairs, etc. etc. etc. Let’s face it - we NEED a strong USD!!!

I’ve got to get myself out of the ‘sh*t’ here - so help me out with this.

Regards,

Dale.

PS - By the way Akram - somehow you’ve manged to post a duplicate post above - please delete it if you can - it’s ‘messy’.

[CharlesLioe]

Hi, i took a look on the charts, well yes, many pairs seem to be overbought looking on stochs only though…mostly the ???/JPY ones

i compared it to historical data and i think those ???/JPY pairs are unlikely to go down next week, but i am usualy wrong

well my reason is this, stochs react too fast. In a trending market on daily charts, stochs can be at 80-90 levels for days and it keeps on going. i attached a screenshot of what i mean

after a bit of thinking, i think oscilators should be used in a ranging market where price jumps between two points, its hard to use them on trending markets when they keep telling you its overbought or oversold, and the price keeps moving the that direction.

also on every small retracement those oscilators make me believe that the trend finaly has ended and is going to reverse or so, and a day or two later the trend continues.

now that i think about it, maybe in lower timeframes those oscilators work better, coz there are more ranges, i am gonna take a look

btw, when you look at my charts, i have been playing around with bolinger bands, i am trying to use them with the PSAR to find out whether we are in a trend or in a range, so far i did not come up with a 100% idea how to use them together. maybe thats where my problem is, i am trying to find a criteria which is 100% right, and that is imposible i believe. so i guess i will look for a criteria which is 80 or 90% right, that should be more than sufficient to make money.

Charles

[dpaterso]

Hi Charles,

Thanks for the post.

And by the way - thanks for posting that link earlier about trending and ranging markets - everyone should have a look at that link.

Like you - after reading the link - I’ve also been playing around with Bollinger Bands and Parabolic SAR but I also can’t seem to find any correlation between the two - other than the fact that you COULD use the inside (middle) band for a stop loss point once in a Parabolic SAR trade i.e. SOMETIMES this middle band stops you out before Parabolic SAR would have BUT sometimes it stops you out too soon as well - so no ‘major’ find there.

In shear desperation I’ve gone and read through the trading systems in the trading books that I’ve acquired (SOMETIMES a HUMUNGOUS loss is NOT a bad thing i.e. it has the tendency to ‘bring you back to reality from the edge of sanity’ - and that’s not a grammar mistake either) and I’ve found one that may stand us ALL in good stead for what’s happening with these overbought and oversold pairs and would compliment Parabolic SAR very niceley.

It’s basically the HBOP and LBOP play (that’s what I call it anyway).

The rules are this:

1 - The instrument (pair) MUST be in a strong upward trend.

2 - You find the bar that has made the highest high while in the current uptrend (normally the current bar).

3 - You place a sell stop order ‘a couple of ticks’ below the low of this bar.

4 - Your (initial) stop loss is ’ a couple of ticks’ above the high of this bar.

(Obviously if in a downtrend everything is 'opposite).

This is a ‘tried and proven’ trading method.

To add to the above though:

With the way things appear to be going as I described in my previous post this should work well with Parabolic SAR because at or around the time your orders are hit you should also get a Parabolic SAR reversal signal so you then use Parabolic SAR for stops and to lock in profits. Actually this ‘play’ should get you in much earlier than Parabolic SAR given the current status of the pairs that I referred to in my earlier post i.e. more profits.

Something that has ‘jumped’ out at me from all these books is that very little use is made of market orders i.e. most of the ‘systems’ rely on the placing of limit or stop orders and waiting for things to happen and not just ‘jumping in’ ‘at market’ to catch a trend which may already be near it’s end.

Just and observation.

Obviously we stick to our rules with the other indicators as well but all of these conditions have already been met on the pairs to which I was referring to earlier.

Regards,

Dale.

[dobro]

Dale, et al:
I am using B.B. to determine trend vs ranging - it gives a late signal so it is not perfect.

I am willing to be there are some that are still using, and making money, on the “old” setup and I would like to see them post a reply here. Perhaps “older is better” still holds true. d

edit: And particularly what indicators are working for them.

[synchronicity_ii]

Dale,

This is a very interesting thread, and I think I will start trading using only the PSAR’s on monday, as I have been looking for a system that will not require me to be awake at odd times of the night and through the morning. As this thread has reached 100+ pages, and as I’ve noticed, each one of your posts rivals War and Peace in length :D, is there any way to summarize what has been established in this thread so far?
Basically, I have picked up that you go long when SAR’s are below, and vice versa, and you set your stop loss and each new SAR point. Is there anything else of interest I should know before I start trading with this system? Thanks in advance, and here’s that picture you were looking for in the beginning of this thread:

[forexology]

Thanks Glendon - much appreciated.

The one thing that ‘keeps me at this’ is that I am under the impression that there are people making a ‘fantablulous’ living out of this and - if you ‘stick to your guns’ - you HAVE to come right - eventually. The problem really now is that I’m starting to question this belief.

I mean - I know the brokers are making money - I know the traders on the floor are making money - but retail traders???

I need to go and have a rethink about all of this and see what’s changed and why.

So far - the first thing that comes to mind - is that because of financial pressure - I started overtrading the ‘sh*t’ out of my forex account and I can’t draw anything out of stocks because all the positions are fully hedged and until I’m 10000% sure that a reveral has started I’m not touching that account.

What else?

So far this week I have not managed to ‘stick to’ or consistentely follow ANYTHING that I started i.e. I’ve been ‘chopping and changing’ from system to indicator to idea to . . . You get the picture.

Just putting my ‘end of the week’ thoughts down.

Dale.

Dale:

First let me congratulate you again for the great work you’ve done here, teaching us and leading us in a thorough, if somewhat erratic, study of PSAR indicator and complementary filters.

No matter how we spin it there are going to be periods of drawdown. Hence my insistence on some serious backtesting.

Anyway, while searching for a method to faststart your earnings you might want to consider the MTI people. Jared’s students here in Jamaica are making tons of money using his course. I cant afford it but you could check it out. Again I dont get any money for referral. This is not fair. I should get some commission for this.

Internet giving trouble so I’ll send link later.

Glendon

[robstyle1980]

Hey all

Really quick, an answer to synchronicity_ii:

Check over on page 46 and you’ll get a good idea of how the old system works. The text is in red or maroon rather and was posted by Ingot. I refer to it as the old system as Dale has been recently coming up with new ideas. It is the system that Bocajunior is posting his p/l’s on (I believe, you are using that system right Boca? lol). I just don’t know anymore!

Well, I thought I’d take a break from everything FOREX for the weekend, but I can’t seem to stay away! This thread is calling me and I checked up on my position I left yesterday. It looks really ugly and I don’t want to talk about it.

Now that I’ve found a system for shorter term trading (30min charts), I’m going to focus once again on this system and see if I can’t make anything of it this coming week. Like Dale was saying, these things are bound to turn around. They’ve been up in overbought/sold territory for far too long and it is only inevitable for them to drop back down/head back up. We shall see this week!

Oh and synchronicity_ii, thanks for posting the images. Just what Dale needs! Actually, is that what made you post them? Because I think Dale had mentioned those in the early days of this thread. Good stuff.