Parabolic SAR - that's all!

Ok ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, here it is, my very final system!!! (I suppose I’ll regret those words sometime in the future although the main reason I’m posting this here is so that YOU can keep ME on track and make sure that I follow MY system NO MATTER WHAT)!!!

I have done nothing other than ‘fuk around’ for the past couple of weeks. I have ‘played’ with this indicator and that EMA and this SMA and that timeframe (you get the picture) and it’s all pretty much turned to 'sht’ and I am now ‘down to the wire’ capital wise so I have to stop all of this messing around and make sure that whatever I trade is a winner and, from what I can see, there really is only one way to make decent, consistent, and very real profits and this is it!!!

[B]‘Da Final System’:[/B]

[B]Setup:[/B]

Daily timeframe
50 EMA applied to close
Parabolic SAR

[B]Initial Entry:[/B]

Long when the price CLOSES above the 50 EMA or when getting a signal from Parabolic SAR to go long AND the price is CLOSING above the 50 EMA.

Short when the price CLOSES below the 50 EMA or when getting a signal from Parabolic SAR to go short AND the price is CLOSING below the 50 EMA.

[B]Late Entry:[/B]

Late entries are only taken if the price is the same or better as the price would have been at initial entry as detailed above or if there has been a retractment to the 50 EMA.

An entry based on Parabolic SAR is never the initial trend entry i.e. the closing above or below the 50 EMA is the signal for a potential trend reversal and no entry is taken based on Parabolic SAR if the the Parabolic SAR entry is the first entry into the trend.

[B]Exit (Stop and Reverse):[/B]

When the price CLOSES below the 50 EMA if long if you have not already been stopped out by Parabolic SAR if long.

When the price CLOSES above the 50 EMA if short if you have not already been stopped out by Parabolic SAR if short.

[B]Stop losses:[/B]

Stop losses are set based on the value of Parabolic SAR in accordance with the following:

Stop losses are only set based on the value of Parabolic SAR when the value of Parabolic SAR is above the 50 EMA if long.

Stop losses are only set based on the value of Parabolic SAR when the value of Parabolic SAR is below the 50 EMA if short.

[B]Additional notes:[/B]

You do not stop and reverse on a Parabolic SAR signal to do so.

If the price is CLOSING above the 50 EMA you would only be taking additional Parabolic SAR entries to go long i.e. if Parabolic SAR gives a signal to stop and reverse and go short but the price is still CLOSING above the 50 EMA then the signal is ignored.

If the price is CLOSING below the 50 EMA you would only be taking additional Parabolic SAR entries to go short i.e. if Parabolic SAR gives a signal to stop and reverse and go long but the price is still CLOSING below the 50 EMA then the signal is ignored.

[I](I will try this system on the shorter timeframes but the daily timeframe will take priority i.e. any positions opened on the daily timeframe will be left to run their course and the pairs associated with these positions will not be traded on a shorter timeframe).[/I]

[B]Further observation:[/B]

With this system you will miss a few trades (a few good trades if the truth be told) but the object of the exercise here is to ensure that if a trade does not go in your favour your loss is kept to an absolute minimum (most times breakeven less the spread) and if the trade does go in your favour the profits are maximised. I would be happy to miss a trade where the profit would have been 500 pips if I had already made 2000 pips on the previous trades. [I](Remember that missing a trade does not result in drawdown)[/I].

That my good friends is it!!! Nothing more, nothing less!!!

[B]Help me to help myself!!![/B]

Dear Dale,

That is the final system for day time frame but i think we should have other system like the (8-21) for less than a day time frame like 15 .30 min and 1 h.coz the one u posted u need to wait till every thing met then u can go for long or short and that can keep u away from the market for a while.

I am not sure if the system i am following is good for more than 15 min or not.if any body tried it please tell us about your experiance.

I am so happy but at the same time i am afraid that what i acheavied last week was a matter of good luck!!!but i will keep testing and testing till i check it and become sure of it.

i wish we will all have a good week like last week.so any one saw Bocajonuior?? it has been a long time my friend where r u?

Akram

i am going to try this system when i start to trade again. dale i hope you get all 2000 pips, you deserve them. thanks joanne.:slight_smile:

today i’m taking a ride on usd/jpy short…
hope to do better than last trade

hello everybody

Where r u guys??? well i just wanted to tell u that the 15 min is working great with me right now!!

Hope that everyboday is doing ok

Akram

Hi everyone, hope you all had a good weekend.

Akram, what pairs are you trading on the 15 min timeframe?

Joanne, Welcome to the thread, nice to know I’m not alone.:smiley: And even though I’m making some money, it’s only demo for now. I plan to go live early next year. Until then, I figure the more practice I get, the better.

Currently I have 3 positions open, Short USD/JPY which after being in a constant red is now @ +1,620 pips, Long AUD/NZD @ +110 pips and Short AUD/CHF @ +134 pips.

I’m still using PSAR, MACD and Stochs but I’ve added the 50 and 200 EMAs on the dailys. They seem to be working fine so far.

Ok guyss

i am done with the day was a wonderful day today!!!

My target was hit and i think i will just walk away and watch i will not open any other postions today i will just be intouch in the thread this is all what i will do

the US Doller is getting stronger i don’t know why but that was good for me anyways!!

Regards,

Akram

i was just thinking a bit and i found that My future problem that is going to happen very soon is that i have to accept the loss

This is really a big problem coz i felt so upset when my target was hit and lost and then i got it back.

So i think we should have a plane like ok i will loss x amount of money and i will try to gain x amount of money if not then i am fine and happy i will not trade more.I think we have to look at the trade as an investment not like u have to win all the time coz this will never happen.

I know i am talking a bit of crap here!! but it is just a though that i will try to stick with my daily strategy with this business!!

Regards,

Akram

‘Howzit Akram my china’???

Glad to hear things are going well for you (how was the weekend)?

I am also happy to report that my ‘final system’ also seems to be working i.e. at present I’m showing a small profit but it’s a profit nonetheless (it would be a nice profit if I had not reduced my lot sizes which I have done because I can’t take the stress of having to watch things constantly so as not to be margin called).

I reckon I’m going to have a good day on the indices today though (5 minute charts using my ‘final system’ looks very promising indeed). At least I have some ‘pretty serious’ money over there and it’s a highly leveraged account so I’m sure I’ll be able to make up my forex losses at very least!!!

I don’t mean to discourage anyone but I’m really not sure that trading forex pairs is for me (remember that when I started this thread I was just about ‘finished with forex’ but that ‘windfall’ ‘pulled me in’ again). Stocks, the indices, commodities, and metals just seem to move in a more ‘orderly’ and ‘rational’ ‘fashion’. I don’t know - maybe it’s just me or my perception that there is a difference between these things.

I’ll tell you something though: I got a nice surprise last night. GCI Trading has upgraded their software and man - I gotta’ tell ya’ - it’s HOT!!! I’ve been trading with them for a VERY long time now so I’m pretty used to their platform and have always liked its ‘simplicity’ and ‘responsiveness’ and now it’s just great. Not to detract from my beloved Delta of course but I have to give GCI credit where it’s due and it’s due ‘big time’ today!!! I’m a ‘sucker’ for anything that ‘looks good’ and man - this new software ‘looks good’ (it works well too!!! Who knows - maybe THIS is the BIG turning point for me!!!

As a matter of interest GCI has given us some new reports and one of them is a summary of your trades with details like the longest, shortest, and average time you’ve had a trade open and the average profit or loss per lot etc. etc. etc. i.e. stuff like that. I’ll tell you that what I found VERY interesting is that my profitable trades were open for an average time of about one day and 18 hours and by comparison my losing trades were open for an everage time of about nineteen hours only. Long term is better???

Anyway - I’m going to have a little ‘afternoon nap’ now so that I’m ‘fresh’ and ‘alert’ when the NYSE opens (I’m also trying to ‘stick’ to those time schedules and not trade outside of them).

‘Chat’ later.

Hey My China

How r u? ok i am fine. weekend was not good coz i was waiting to test our new 15 min strategy!! wanna make sure things are working and it wasn’t an illusion!!

Well i am so happy u have some profit hopefuly that will work out with u.About the Nasaq and the other stuff that is available for trading with GCI i really hope to find a nice simple software coz i think i have a problem to understand these strange stofware!!!

What is there website any ways may be they r easy to trade with. let me have a look

Regards,

Akram

Interesting re-incarnation of your method, DP - where will your [I]initial[/I] stops be on the daily TF?

Guys

Do any one know what is going on with the Doller??? why it is raising ???

Akram

Hey Cowaboi, don’t remember ‘seeing’ you around here before (but there are so many messages now and we’ve been going for so long and I’ve typed so much crap . . . forgive me if I don’t remember. Where are you from)?

Anyway - I’m assuming that I can take the ‘interesting’ as compliment???

Seriously - I’ve spent a WHOLE LOT of time looking at charts and this really seems to be THE MOST ‘sure fire’ way (and although it looks like it works on forex pairs I’m not convinced as yet i.e. I’m showing ‘proper profits’ on some pairs right now but for me it’s too early to tell).

Like I also said previously - the 50 EMA and 200 EMA are definitely ‘key’ levels for the stocks, the indices, commodites, and metals (just take a good look at the Dow now)!!!

As far as stops are concerned I am (at the moment) trading without stops i.e. initially, once the price has closed above the 50 EMA I will go long and stay long UNLESS the price closes below the 50 EMA in which case I will go short i.e. stop and reverse. In other words your initial stop is going to be a stop and reverse not a fixed stop loss order. The reason for this is that if you don’t wait for a close above or below the 50 EMA you get stopped out too many times which is exactly what happened to me last week i.e. using the 50 EMA as an entry and a stop point the moment it was crossed either way resulted in me getting stopped out of at least nine or ten positions last week obviously at a slight loss on each position. In most cases what has happened since is that those positions kept going in the ‘right’ direction after the 50 EMA was ‘temporarily’ crossed and had I not been stopped out I would still have those positions open and be making a profit. In other words when the 50 EMA is crossed during the day for the first time the price may retract again before continuing on it’s course but you have already been stopped out because of this retractment. I did try and reopen positions last week after they had been stopped out but the price had again moved back over the 50 EMA but you’d be surprised how many times the 50 EMA will be crossed on the day it was intially croseed before actually ‘moving on’ if that makes sense.

Unfortuanately doing it this way does make you wait a lot longer to trade because if the move across the 50 EMA is too ‘violent’ you’re taking a ‘fat chance’ getting in on the close. I’ve attached a chart of the Dow for you to see what I mean. If somebody opened a short position on the Dow this morning and the price retracted back up to the 50 EMA and beyond you’d lose a LOT of money. I’m thinking that the only prudent thing to do in this case is to wait for a retractment to the 50 EMA before going short OR trading the shorter timeframes using exactly the same method (the 5 minute charts of the indices really seem to work very well with this).

The other way of ‘playing’ this of course is to open positions THE MOMENT the 50 EMA is crossed but that poses two problems: a) you have to be watching all the time to be ready to stop and reverse and stop reverse again if you need to and b) at what point do you say to yourself ‘OK - it’s crossed now and it will stay crossed’? In other words let’s say that this happened (this did actually happen on the Dow last Friday afternoon): the price starts falling and crosses the 50 EMA and at that point you go short BUT the price does not go very far over the 50 EMA (remember that the 50 EMA is major support or resistance) and then retracts back up. Then, as it happened, it went back over the 50 EMA and did exactly the same thing a little while later (if I’m not mistaken this happened a few times before the sustained short rally). Actually now that I’m typing this maybe having a look at combining daily pivots with this system will clear things up a bit. Anyway - looking at what happened with the Dow it would have been REAL nice to be short right from the beginning of the 50 EMA cross (right now that’s 347 pips as I type this which WOULD have been the equivalent of $3470 profit since Friday).

Look - I’m still out on the entry point i.e. I WANT to say that I will only open a position once the price has closed above or below the 50 EMA (which is what I ‘carved in stone’ in my previous post relating to this system but it would appear that by using the Dow as an example today that maybe opening a position THE MOMENT the 50 EMA is crossed is the more profitable way to go but the only problem is that you have to be prepared to stop and reverse as many times as is necessary on the day of the crossing and take the ‘spread knock’ every time until the price has actually decided which way it’s going to go).

Anyway - feel free to comment. (Please comment).

Akram - GCI’s website is:

Forex Trading | Mini Forex | CFD Trading

One word of warning:

I have been trading live with them for over a year now and this is where I ‘made’ the bulk of my losses (although I now know and realise that those losses were through no fault of theirs but rather mine ‘trying to get rich quick’). Do not try and ‘scalp’ ANYTHING at GCI and do not try and trade the news with them. You will get ‘burned’. GCI is a fantastic broker if you’re in it ‘for the long haul’ and there is absolutely no problem getting your money out of them (as a matter of fact in the past two weeks they’ve been far quicker than Delta). They have instant order execution on the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, and some of the major forex pairs but on the bulk of the instruments that they offer you are going through a dealing desk and sometimes your order can wait for AGES to be executed and by that time the price may have moved quite a bit. Again - this is not a problem if you are trading long term i.e. a few lost pips when trading an instrument over a period of days or weeks in nothing between you and your broker and I have just learned to live with this and accept the requotes but if you try and ‘scalp’ with them i.e. trade the 5 minute chart wanting to cover a spread of 3 pips and make a profit of 5 pips they will feed you your arse so fast you won’t know what’s hit you. Again - long term - fantastic broker - and they have a lot on offer (take a look at the different instruments on offer between their CFD and Forex accounts and choose which one has the instruments that interest you most - I have both accounts just for good measure).

Let me know what you think.


Hi Dale - I am probably speaking completely out of turn since I am not a contributor to your thread but I do follow it as it is somewhat different from others and certainly interesting. You asked for comments. I suppose what struck me is the day after you post your ‘this is my final system’ you are changing it. This is surely exhausting for you and if you are not careful you will burn yourself out without ever really finding out whether you can be successful at this over the long term. If your testing has given you the best system you can get then surely you should just trade it extensively so that you have a ‘bread and butter return’ type of trade that you can always fall back on. By all means tweak and review but I think that you are doing more than that and your frustration with yourself is at times palpable. Just my 2 cents worth and of course feel free to completely ignore what I am saying if I am wide of the mark.

Yes Dale,

I know what u mean trading the news is not good anyways so on long time frame things will never differ.I saw there platform and i think it is not that difficult but i just want to ask something do u thing that there are any brokers who trade the NASDAQ through MT4???

Akram

Hello Tony (you have posted here before so what’s the problem - always a pleasure to hear from people like you).

Actually - YOUR recent post is EXACTLY why I ‘committed myself’ yesterday!!! In other words - if I changed my mind again - I’d get a little ‘tap on the shoulder’ from someone like you.

To be honest - I think the drop in the Dow on Friday has got me ‘spooked’ and it’s not a ‘happening’ that I’ve taken into account in my ‘final system’ (I was short on the Dow on Friday but on the 5 minute charts so I did not notice the ‘bigger picture’). In other words, what do you do in a case like this? Go short because you’re ‘sticking’ with your own rules or what? Do you get my point? I mean had it NOT been for that drop in the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P I would not be ‘second guessing’ my ‘resolve’ but what does a person do in this case? On the other hand do you just wait now until the price has crossed and closed above the 50 EMA again before going long on the Dow (for example). That could take days and be a whole lot of missed pips.

See my dilemma???

Your input would be (once again) appreciated. Just ideas. Stuff like that.

Like I said - movements of this nature have NOT been taken into account in my ‘final system’ yet and I just don’t think it would be ‘prudent’ to ignore them.

On the other hand my ‘final system’ is working like an absolute charm on the 15 minute Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P right now. Maybe that’s the answer for this type of thing i.e. move to the shorter timeframes and ‘claw’ your way back up to the daily 50 EMA if price goes that way or ‘stick’ with the trend if the drop continues.

Don’t know.

[QUOTE=dpaterso;26945]Hey Cowaboi, don’t remember ‘seeing’ you around here before (but there are so many messages now and we’ve been going for so long and I’ve typed so much crap . . . forgive me if I don’t remember. Where are you from)?

Anyway - I’m assuming that I can take the ‘interesting’ as compliment???/QUOTE]

Hi Dale, thanks for the reponse!..i’ve been around the boards since 2003, but under another nick, ‘ChowClown’. For some reason I can’t post using those logon details on BB anymore, so had to create a new ID :confused:

I’m based near London and at a similar stage to yourself, from what i’ve read…just recently took the step to trade full-time, after 4 years of cycling/recycling methods to eventually come up with something that did the job for me…ain’t easy is it :slight_smile:

Your posts are great to read and no doubt many identify with where you’re at. Finding something you’re completely comfortable trading day-in, day-out is tough to find…and you seem to be there now.

All the best and good trading :cool:

[QUOTE=dpaterso;26953]
Like I said - movements of this nature have NOT been taken into account in my ‘final system’ yet and I just don’t think it would be ‘prudent’ to ignore them.

Yes I understand and sympathise Dale. Its the old dilemma in a way between being a mechanical and intuitive trader. The move in the DOW essentially leading you to wanting to make a change because you ‘know’ this is going to work out. I have met such intuitive traders and so know that this is a reality for some and if you are in that elite company then thats fantastic. Wish you well in your ongoing endeavours

You’ve ‘summed it up’ nicely Tony!!!

That’s the problem: my ‘intuition’ has always spelled absolute disaster for me so I have to trade mechanically!!! I do know that these things WILL turn around and it would be a shame to miss those moves. I’m certainly not one of those ‘elite’ I can assure you - it’s just that common sense coupled with my experience of the indices dictates that these things will turn around. (Actually - that’s the major difference between forex pairs and stocks, indices, etc. etc. etc. i.e. the’re more ‘predictable’).

Akram,

I don’t know of any brokers that offer the indices and use Metatrader as the platfrom but I’m 100% sure that there are some somewhere (although they might be those brokers that require HUGE deposits - I don’t know - maybe someone else can help you out here).

Dale,

Thanks alot.I went through GCI Platform i think they r java script i mean this is what i got. so how much deposite they require Dale as a min??

Another question please Dale so the indices it has a big move every day like forex? and they r like points or pips? each one is 10 Dollers??

Hey guys where is every body??? how was your day??? Joanne??? Rob???

Thanks my china

Akram