OK - well - this is not my ‘usual’ type of post BUT I just thought I’d ‘share’ this with you:
It’s not often that you have a situation where Stochastics are WELL overbought AND RSI is above 70 on the Monthly, Weekly, AND Daily timeframes AND Parabolic SAR is getting ‘real close’ to being penetrated on the Daily timeframe AND everyone is ‘b1tching’ about the strength of a particular currency BUT WE CURRENTLY HAVE ALL OF THIS IN PLACE ON EUR/GBP!!!
If I’m wrong - sorry - there ain’t nothing I can do for you BUT if I’m right - ENJOY THE RIDE!!! (In ‘true DALE fashion’ I’m ALMOST tempted to margin 95% of my account(s) going short on EUR/GBP with a VERY TIGHT stop. Like I said - ‘ALMOST’)!!! (Some things NEVER change)!!! (I ‘is’ what I ‘is’)!!!
Edit:
I’ve just had another look at the charts relating to the above and ‘from where I sit’ every time Stochastics and RSI have been in this territory on the Monthly timeframe a correction ‘on the grandest of scales’ has occurred!!!
[QUOTE=dpaterso;34933]
(In ‘true DALE fashion’ I’m ALMOST tempted to margin 95% of my account(s) going short on EUR/GBP with a VERY TIGHT stop. Like I said - ‘ALMOST’)!!! (Some things NEVER change)!!! (I ‘is’ what I ‘is’)!!!
Edit:
Deep breath Dale and I hope lots of things change for you!
Like I said: ‘ALMOST’!!! (I’m holding my breath so hard it hurts)!!!
Just a word of warning to anyone else that reads my post (above Tony’s):
Please just bear in mind that everything I have said of course disregards any fundamentals or market sentiment (although I always ‘call’ these things wrong anyway) i.e. my comment is based solely on technicals.
BUT - I’m ‘confused’ or ‘beg to differ’ with the analyst about the fact that the GBP has hit a ‘lifetime low’ against the EUR at 0.7500 i.e. on my Monthly charts the GBP hit a low against the EUR in December 1995 and the high was 0.9019. Are my charts wrong??? If not then why am I seeing this and nobody else has picked up on it???
We have (almost) the same setup on EUR/USD as detailed earlier for EUR/GBP. The only difference is that Stochastics are headed up on the Weekly timeframe but headed down (and overbought) on the Daily and Monthly timeframes. Interestingly though there is an RSI failure swing high on the Weekly chart. In addition to this I have ‘heard via the grapevine’ that certain firms have added to their EUR/USD shorts having a target of around $1.4100 or lower with stops above $1.4800.
What do you think of my ‘analysis’??? Would you pay me for a service like this??? At least THEN I could make some money out of this business and it would not even matter whether I was wrong or right!!!
At least THEN I could make some money out of this business and it would not even matter whether I was wrong or right!!!
You could always become a broker. All you need to do is switch sides and then it wouldn’t be dependant on being right of wrong any longer. I have thought about this before, however, my inexperience hinders me. Heck just look how much IBFX has grown in the last 5 years and they have higher spreads than most of their competition.
I don’t know if any of you are tracking my ‘darlings’ (the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq) but it sure looks like they are heading for the August lows of last year and who knows from there. The good thing of course is that they will not go down forever so if you’re able to ‘pick the bottom’ you cant’ go wrong.
Oh - and did I mention that the EUR/GBP pair is going to drop??? Look like its ‘a happening’ notwithstanding what happens tomorrow with the ECB and BoE of course. Now the dilemma: take profits NOW and stay out until the announcements tomorrow OR hold and hope that it’s already going in the ‘right’ direction!!!
Can you briefly summarize what happen to your trading system over the course of time? Did it produce more losing pips than winning pips? Where will you go from here?
Regards,
pip chaser
Well - if you’ve been following this thread since the beginning then you’ll know what happened with my system!!! Let me put it this way: just about everything I have come up with has worked / is working FOR EVERYBODY ELSE EXCEPT ME!!!
Where will I go to from here? Jail probably!!! (Again - only joking - I hope)!!!
Seriously though - I have learned one thing and that is this:
It does not matter what ‘system’ you have (within reason of course) BUT the ‘trick’ is to ‘stick’ to it ‘no matter what’ and your profitable trades WILL ALWAYS be more than your losers. It’s only when you start trading a certain way, take a loss, and almost immediately start looking for ‘the next best thing’. That’s when the losses start to accumulate. Take Parabolic SAR as a ‘prime’ example. ‘Sticking’ with the indicator WILL result in profits over the long term this fact being verified by backtesting on MT4 and real live trades as detailed on this thread. The ‘trick’ is to ‘stick’ with it, takes the losses ‘like a man’, have the patience to ‘stick the trades out’ without ‘tampering with them’ and make sure you have enough available margin to carry you through when the trades temporarily go against you. It may not be the ‘sniper’ approach to trading but it’s a sure fire way of making money in the long run I’m convinced.
By the way: I see that the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq have rebounded sharply since my last post. Could we have seen ‘the bottom’???
Oh - and to my ‘old’ friends on this thread:
How is THIS for a ‘radical’ trading strategy:
When you get margin called your open positions are closed at a loss BUT the amount of margin that you used to open the trades is returned to you right??? Well - what if you margin 99.99% of your account at any given time. If the trade goes in your favour then you’ll make an absolute killing and if the trade goes against you you’ll just get margin called (as if you were stopped out)!!! RAD!!!
My ‘radical’ trading idea was just that - a ‘radical’ trading idea. Don’t try this at home!!! You will get nailed!!!
(What makes you think I’ve nothing better to do than sit here and post ‘garbage’ while I’m waiting for the ECB and BoE statements tomorrow)??? I TP’d on EUR/GBP by the way - nice profit - rather taken and stay out until the interest rate announcements tomorrow. See - me - learning!!!
sometimes it seems, to just do the opposite of what you think the pair is going to go.
Mostly what i hear is dont let your emotions get involved, easier said than done for most of us.
I have been following this trread for about 3 months now and still not sure what works.
Im stilll on demo until i figure it out.
I’d like to follow ya’ll on this thread but there are just too many posts to weed through them all to find the systems that are working and those that are not. Could someone generate a set of rules for the different systems talked about here?
I think I understand the initial system of following the PSAR and “doing what it does” but as I’ve skimmed through the pages I see talk of Dale’s new system.
Dale here (not Tony). I DID go short EUR/GBP yesterday but took a nice little profit. Thank goodness!!! I see it’s now pushing higher!!!
Actually - this is something I’ve learned (from John F. Carters book) - he says that entry points are a ‘dime-a-dozen’ but the money (profit) is in the exit’s (that’s roughly translated from memory). This single statement (theory) of his has allowed me to able to take small profits from the market (lately) and be satisfied with them and stopped me from wanting to ‘jump off of something high’ because I got out too early. After time (and a lot of losses) I have finally come to realise that if you miss something today you can bet your bottom dollar (nice ‘pun’) that the opportunity will present itself again and you can count on this!!! Fine example: yesterday the Dow touched it’s August 2007 lows and then rebounded sharply. Now in a ‘past life’ (last year) I would have ‘jumped in’ on the rally probably as it neared it’s end. Now - I stayed out and yes, probably missed a very nice profit, but - nothing has changed in the US so you’ll probably find that there were a whole pile of limit buy orders sitting at the August 2007 low and that caused the Dow to rise at that point (interestingly enough it hit a pivot level at exactly the same price as the August 2007 low and then started the rebound). If I’m wrong about this and we have indeed seen the bottom then I missed the trade yesterday BUT I know that in the next couple of days there will be another sharp rally either way. If I’m right of course then even better i.e. maybe the Dow has a lower bottom to come and the lower it gets the higher it’s going to go and that means cheaper lots (current price would cost me $637.05 USD per lot). The long and short of the above could be translated into one word: ‘patience’!!!
daxm:
You HAVE to tread the whole thread!!! It’s not about trading - it’s about my trading life!!! (Only kidding)!!!
If you are going to use Parabolic SAR to trade then nothing has changed at all i.e. go long or short as indicated by Parabolic SAR and move your stops are per Parabolic SAR and that’s it. I tried throwing everything from moving averages to other indicators to the ‘kitchen sink’ at it but the more you throw at it the bigger your dissapointment is when the trade goes against you and believe you me this can finish you off!!! Over time ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR WILL make a (very nice) profit BUT what you have to ask yourself is this: does trading this way ‘suit’ your personality? Another realisation that has come to me (the hard way) is that NO - trading with Parabolic SAR DOES NOT suit MY personality - no matter how ‘foolproof’ it may be in the long run. I am one of those people who just has to be trading all day and all night in some form or another and no matter how I have tried to fight against who and what I am - who and what I am has won (I am going to turn 43 years old this year - it’s just too late to get an ‘extreme makeover - personality edition’ now). Now that does not mean that I have given up on Parabolic SAR - not by a long shot - I still think that’s it’s the one indicator that you actually CAN rely on in the long run. As I have said in a previous post I have a major problem with the way that Parabolic SAR is presented to everyone in their trading platforms i.e. they’re all wrong and this is a major cause of concern for me and I am working on my own Parabolic SAR formula that will CORRECTLY calculate and plot Parabolic SAR as per J. Welles Wilder’s original work and I’m convinced that this will make all the difference to the profitability of the indicator. At the moment, while I am doing this, I am trading some of Wilder’s other systems and these are working ‘as regular as clockwork’ for me and suit who I am i.e. lot’s of action, small amounts of profit every day, always have positions open or orders waiting to be executed etc. etc. etc. and this is working for me. Now and then I’ll ‘take a chance’ like I did yesterday on EUR/GBP (based on Stochs and RSI) but only when I’m almost 1000% sure of what I’m doing OR I’m 1000% happy to take the loss if I’m wrong.
Wow - that was a great post (even if I have to say so myself)!!!
Keep in touch.
I’m looking forward to the impact of the ECB and BoE statements today (again - ‘in a previous life’ - I’d already have had open positions based on my ‘gut feel’ of what’s going to happen - but my ‘gut feel’ has always been wrong - so - I’m staying out until I see what’s headed and where. I no longer mind missing those few pips if I’m out of the market at the time of the statements because I know that the direction of the pairs about an hour after the statements is what is going to count NOT the quick ‘spike’ that happens at the time of the announcements that COULD nett you a great number of pips BUT could also result in a substantial loss as well).
By the way - I have written come nice indicators for Delta Stock’s platform - including Pivot Points and Keltner Channels (and some more channels). If you’re trading with Delta and want them let me know and I’ll post them here for download (although you will have to be careful because whatever I send to you will overwrite any custom indicators or changes that you may have already made yourself to your platform. The only other way to do it is to manually enter what I have done into your platform).
Now I know that the RSI and Bollinger Bands need to be ‘modified’ so that they can be overlayed on each other BUT I really like the entry points that are given by RSI overlayed on Bollinger Bands. From what I can see this seems to ‘filter out’ very nicely your Parabolic SAR entry points and seems to make those initial huge stops less likely to be taken out.
Thanks for the update Dale. I’d still suggest that you make a summary post and put it as a sticky post on the front page. I sure hate to have you have to repeat yourself with each noob who comes into this forum.
Just as well I ‘ALMOST’ margined 99.99% of my accounts on EUR/GBP shorts yesterday!!! It’s at 0.7554 as I type (I TP at somewhere around 0.7480 or something like that yesterday. Talk about ‘dodging the bullet’)!!! I’m learning!!! So much for RSI and Stochastics (although if the truth be told all it means is that the longer they stay where they are the harder the pair is going to fall). Interestingly enough I did not notice yesterday that ADX is still (stronly) on its way up. Just wait until that ADX line makes a turn!!! It’s strange (lovely) how all of Wilder’s indicator just seem to compliment each other!!! (OK - Stochastics is not his but ‘added insurance’ is all)!!!
I think that it’s important that the FIRST PSAR reversal dot must be outside the Bollinger bands. It doesn’t matter about the later ones. However if the FIRST PSAR reversal dot is inside the Bollinger bands, then do not reverse.
Dear BarryPips,
I downloaded this indicator and used it in my MT4 but it exactly covers the old version which I use to use.I mean no difference with the regular one.
I was wondering should I change any parameters or something?