Parabolic SAR - that's all!

Hello,

Don’t worry: on this thread, anything goes!!!

I curious though: where / how did you hear / find out that the Fed has cut rates early??? I’ve been trying to log on to Bloomberg since I saw your message but the site is obviously too busy or something so I am assuming that SOMETHING has happened but not quite sure what. What I DO know is that that Dow (right now) is down 459 points and that’s BAD man. Having said that if the Fed DID cut rates the Dow should be rallying to the up side not ‘falling like a stone’.

Fed slashes rates - Jan. 22, 2008

Well done!!!

NOW I know why I can’t log on to Bloomberg!!!

‘Geez’, how about that people??? Ain’t that something!!!

Like I said daxm: well done!!!

Sorry about your positions though (but don’t feel to bad I’ve had a ‘horendous’ two days as well. The good news is that I’m glad that it’s ‘over with now’ (the rate cut) so that maybe now we can ‘all get on with it’!!!

So what do you think it all means? (i.e. my original question(s))

Oh, and even though I’m down for the day I adjusted my stops last night to “lock in” some of yesterday’s profits. I’m now curious to see how this all plays out for the day.

I have to admit that I’m glad I’m in the market right now. I want I am a “hands on” kind of guy and in order to learn I need to be involved. This new learning has also involved me in what is going on at the economy (both US and global) level. I think this FOREX trading is just the ticket for me and my personality. I’m so excited to find a “job” that actually interests me. Now to just make it profitable (reguarly).

Which reminds me of a question I asked earlier (that no one answered). When do you know you can “make it” as a trader and focus all your energies there?

Now you tell me:

Fed cuts rates before scheduled meeting!!!

Dow will rally before the end of the day!!!

‘The Delta Phenomemon’!!!

I am ‘gobsmacked’!!!

Coiencidence???

‘J. Welles Wilder is the man’!!!

Love and best wishes,

Dale.

Dale,

I do believe that the DOW will rally just because that is such a huge move by the FED. BUT I’m not studying the DOW (or stocks in general) so don’t take what I say for anything more than conjecture.

However, the DOW hasn’t responded yet to the change and that might be because they are concerned that the recession issue hasn’t been resolved by this cut. The fact that the stock market is sluggish to this change is a statement within itself, I think.

By the way, I DID start answering your question last night or the night before:

Which reminds me of a question I asked earlier (that no one answered). When do you know you can “make it” as a trader and focus all your energies there?

but I was not happy with the things that I was saying (or at least how I was wording them but it went something like this:

I think you’re ready to start doing this as a full time career when you’ve ‘lost touch with reality’!!!

Only kidding.

I could only offer you this:

You have to be able to live with the uncertainty (I had my own business for years so I’m pretty used to it).

I would suggest that you have ‘backup money’ in the bank JUST in case you don’t ‘make it’ (at worst case) OR you have a ‘bad month’ or two.

Don’t start off small i.e. my HUGE losses were in ‘increments’ and most of them came from margin call after margin call. I really do believe that had I ‘ploughed’ the whole lot in at once I would have done better. I’m a firm believer (nowadays) that it’s easier to open a HUGE position and ‘shoot’ for a lower numbers of pips than it is to open a small position and ‘hope’ that the instrument ‘trends’ for a couple of months.

Spend money learning (by buying books). It’s amazed how many people come onto this (and other threads) who just want a ‘quick’ solution. How do these people (and I include myself here ‘ala last year’) even HOPE to make a living out of this without doing the background work??? I’ll guarantee that there are traders out there who have being doing this their entire lives and have not yet ‘made it’ and they have experience!!! I really believe that this is a business that you have to ‘study’ and ‘learn’ and get experience LIKE ANY OTHER JOB. Don’t think this is different from being a lawyer, doctor, dentist, or anything else. As a matter of fact the aforementioned professions are an easier way to make a living belive it or not i.e. they are dealing with ‘the known’ not the ‘unknown’ (with or without my beloved ‘Delta Phenomenon’)!!!

Remember that you have monthly bills to pay and the ‘trick’ is to ensure that you’re making enough profit WITHOUT having to touch your capital. That’s what happened to me i.e. needed to pay bills, not making enough profit, draw on capital to pay bills, increased lot sizes to make up for the capital that I did not have, ended up owing ‘the world’ around $360 000 USD, not to mention what it does to you as a human being i.e. ‘living like a king’ for a good few years and now having trouble paying for broadband and your family thinks you’re nothing better than a ‘compulsive gambler’ and an ‘ars*hole’!!!

You wanted to know!!!

That’s as close to ‘telling it like it really is’ as you’re going to get!!!

In short: if you can ‘handle’ the above then you’re ‘ready’!!!

But hey: all of this is ‘just me’!!! I WILL ‘master the trade’ if it’s that last thing I do in this world OR until I have no resources left to pursue it (and even then I’ll probably be able to ‘make a plan’). (Did I mention that you need ‘dedication’ and a sheer ‘love of this business’ and you have to be able to accept the ridicule if you lose and be prepared to do it on your own because if you lose you are not going to get encouragement from anywhere i.e. trading is YOUR ‘baby’ not anybody elses and you are solely responsible for your profits and losses)!!! What was that about reality???

Sorry, we were ‘overtyping’ each other so I just saw your last message now.

Don’t worry - I’m right (Wilder is right on the mark). The FTSE, AEX, CAC, DAX, and SMI are all up right now (they were VERY DOWN this morning) now they’re ‘in the green’ and I see that the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are ‘clawing’ their way up as well (the Dow is now only down 171 points).

Where this affects you (forex) is that all the JPY crosses are going to go up as well, maybe not immediately today, but trust me (trust ‘The Delta Phenomenon’) they will rise from today!!!

I must just tell you that I am a little bit surprised that a pair like EUR/USD did not ‘react’ in a more ‘violent’ fashion to this ‘surprise’ but then it may still i.e. had it not been for your message I would not have had a CLUE as to what happened and I’ll bet there are quite a few people who are going to be VERY surprised when they check their positions during the course of the day!!!

Oh and I forgot to mention that the S&P financial’s are ALL ‘in the green’.

Enjoy the ride!!!

I too have owned a few business and have no issues with “letting it all hang out”. I enjoy the feeling of knowing that what I do, day by day, matters. Being an employee makes me feel like flotsam, which I don’t like at all.

I guess my question is more in the range of percentages/ratios of money. (More money management questions, oh my!). In other words, would it be safe to have stashed away enough money to pay my bills for 6 months or should I wait till have have 1 year’s worth? (I’m sure having a year’s worth is better but what is realistic?)

As to taking a big risk versus a small risk, I do agree that you don’t want to start so small that you get margin called. I figure I’ll start out with $5,000 dollars and trade mini lots. That way I have a lot of fudge room and won’t get margin called (because my stops will hit first). I don’t feel comfortable, though, dumping $50,000 into FOREX and quitting my job and praying it all goes well. Just too much risk for me there! :wink:

If you are in the financial position that you describe then I would say you’re ‘good to go’ especially with the correct ‘attitude’ that you seem to have. Also, there are many, many, good people on this thread that will help you out (unlike when I started out i.e. I got many ‘one line answers’ and I can’t say it helped me too much BUT having said that it’s NOT to say that people should be ‘spoon fed’ but I know about the books you’re buying and reading and you’re obviously prepared to put in the hours and the work. Me personally, for what it’s worth, don’t mind answering questions in as much detail as I possibly can BUT when I see a message like ‘what is this Parabolic SAR system that you’re talking about’ on page 172 or whatever then I want to ‘run screaming into traffic’).

I would say this: if you have the discipline and patience coupled with the financial situation that you describe I’d ‘go for it’.

By the way: I don’t have a problem dumping $50 000 into trading so if you can’t bring yourself to do it then send it this way. I only too happy to oblige!!!

(The sad thing is that if I had the money I had last year today I would be in ‘seventh heaven’ but maybe it’s taken all those losses to ‘teach me a lesson’. VERY expensive way of learning but worth it)!!!

Alas, I don’t have 6 months (let alone a year) worth of saved money, nor do I have $50,000 to invest, yet. I’m just speculating on where my “jump off” point is.

Gotta set those goals!

‘Ahem, ahem. ahem’!!! Did I see a message earlier on today that said ‘short EUR/GBP’??? I could have sworn I did!!!

‘Chucky’: looks like ‘Wilder’ got his own back today!!!

(Only kidding with you. I’m up to my old antics today i.e. drinking my ‘head off’ BECAUSE I WAS RIGHT and ‘Delta’ was right). Unfortuanately I could not fund my $7K Dow lots BUT I’ll get there again!!!

So: does anyone want to know what’s going to happen to the price of ANY instrument on, let’s say, 23 June 2011??? (It’ll cost you though)!!!

I love you guys!!!

Hi!

Why does my daily gbp/usd chart look different than yours?

Thanks

I don’t know.

WHAT THE ‘F*CK’ KIND OF QUESTION IS THAT!!! (Only kidding)!!!

Would you care to do the following:

1 - Attach YOUR GBP/USD chart.

2 - ‘Detail’ as to ‘whose’ GBP/USD chart is different from yours.

Dude, cut back on the booze. :wink:

So did you find out yet whether I can get a discount on the Delta Phenomenon book yet? (In between sips of your lovely scotch.)

Dude,

Dude, cut back on the booze

This is the first time in a couple of months that I actually ‘FELT LIKE’ having a drink so ‘humour me’!!!

As far as ‘TDP’ (‘The Delta Phenonemom’) (I’m going to ‘call’ it that from now on) is concerned: it took them about two weeks to ‘organise’ the discount code for ‘NCITTS’ (yep - you guessed it - ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’) so be patient!!! (By the way: I’m not ‘GUARANTEEING’ that anything is going to happen but ‘hold thumbs’)!!!

You know: I love this ‘sh*t’!!!

Now watch what’s going to happen:

Tonight, the HSI, and the Nikkei, and the MSCI Taiwan are going to ‘follow suit’ i.e. follow ‘my babies’ (the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P) and by tomorrow afternoon when the NYSE opens ‘all is going to be forgiven’!!!

By the way: now I hear / see that there is talk of a FURTHER rate cut in the US AT THE SCHEDULED TIME!!! ‘What a bonus’ for the Dow!!!

Where to did you get this info?

Bloomberg.