Please excuse my “bone-headedness” does this mean long and short on the same pair or is it being long and short in the same base different pairs?
Please excuse my “bone-headedness” does this mean long and short on the same pair or is it being long and short in the same base different pairs?
Yes it can do. But the occasions for opposing trades on the same base currency would be limited. Examples might be AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF, where these are often opposed in TA terms to the rest of the AUD/ or EUR/ sets. Less common with other base currencies.
But if for example GBP is established in universal bullishness, I would also take multiple long GBP positions. If EUR was universally bearish, I would take multiple short EUR trades. Trying not to see each trade as a unique incident, more as part of a “policy”. Risk management is still key of course.
is this what is called basket trading?
Yes, sometimes its certainly what I call it. The thing about a basket of trades is they are all opened pretty much simultaneously in the same direction regardless of whether the individual chart shows an entry signal. For me, the entry signal is the aggregated strength or weakness of the whole set of pairs based on the same currency.
At other times I take sequential entry signals off the individual charts and end up with a basket, though I wouldn’t then close all in the basket simultaneously, exit would be based off the individual chart in the conventional way.
This is my biggest winner percentage wise - 6.62% gain!
January is almost over from a trading perspective, and i just closed my third position for this month in profits.
As i mentioned previously, this was a rough month for my account, since i lost 6% on 2 different positions (EUR/GBP & USD/CHF).
I don’t want to go in to the losses cause i made some mediocre mistakes such as not having an appropriate pip sharp level to base a trade on (area), and the other position was lost because i was seeing something that was not there.
Any how, loosing is a normal part of trading, life goes on.
My winner (NZD/CHF) almost made up for the 2 losses, so all in all i am happy, since for almost a year now, my winners are 99% of the time bigger then my losers.
This is important because it’s a sign of improvement, and now i can slowly focus on increasing my winning percentage by being more picky with my setups, and eventually to focus on not being too conservative, because this current win…could have easily been a 10% increase in my account. But let’s start from the beginning.
So, on January 16 i Shorted the NZD/CHF.
I spotted a trend on 4H (3SMA trading system, since i trade 2 different systems), it was the second swing of this ongoing trend.
I entered the trade automatically upon the first candle close bellow the 30 SMA (Green). The Stop Loss was located beyond the swing pullback and also beyond the 50SMA (Red).
I had a Fibbo level of 61.8% and a counter trend line on the Daily that was broken.
Here is the counter trendline that was broken on the Daily
As you can see from the chart, i could have gotten a much better entry when the pinbar retested the trendline from bellow, but it was a small pinbar, not the type i am comfortable with, so…i regret nothing
Basically, i had a confluence of resistance which was holding it’s ground, even though as you can see from the chart, it took a while before price started going my way, and actually it almost hit my stop loss. But that’s why it’s better to play conservative, because i am guessing a lot of people got stopped out. Basically price was in a channel, then it shot up, almost touched my stop loss, but it didn’t then it started going down.
Here are the details:
Here is a screen shot of the sequential exits i took, i had 3 exits with 0.25 lots size each, or 33.33 %
.Take Profit 1
Lot Size: 0.25
Profit: 110.00 EUR
.Take Profit 2
Lot Size: 0.25
Profit: 200.48 EUR
.Take Profit 3
Lot Size: 0.25
Profit: 274.26 EUR
Profit in total 584.74 EUR
Total Gain: 6.62
As i am writing this i am waiting for MY FX Book details to load up so i can have the precise details of what happened.
But anyway, what i did not like is that this trade took 10 days, and in theory it should have been over in 2-5 days, not more than one week. But as a trader i have to adapt to current market conditions, and current market conditions are…low volatility basically and a lack of momentum.
Generally speaking i am happy since it was 1:2 R:R and even more, so i am improving.
I will post this now, and once i get the details from My FX Book about the gains in percentage i will upload those, but in general it was close to 6% gain all in all.
p.s: I trailed my Stop Loss to break even after the first TP, and then trailed to the first pullback after my second TP at 0.63750, but since i closed the position manually it’s irrelevant.
Also, i had a final TP set in place, but i was scared it’s not gonna get reached, and that’s why i closed it manually. My final Tp was set up based on the Weekly time frame, to the previous swing low, which was overstretching it a little bit.
Here is where my final TP was set approximately.
Yesterday i shorted EUR/JPY upon the breakout of the rising trend line on the Daily TF (Or flag formation on the Weekly time frame)
Currently it’s 40+ pips in profits.
Flag on Weekly
As you can see, we have a broken trendline, we have a Fibbo level (did not mark it, but it’s within Fibbo territory)
I entered 5 pips bellow the sniping top on the daily, and the stop loss was placed 5 above that formation.
I could have entered on a pinbar on the weekly, which would have given me a really good head start, but i played it conservatively.
My game plan depends on the momentum i keep seeing, because this is potentially a 500+ pips trade, and if volume picks up, i might just stretch the trade out.
My first priority is for price to move enough in my direction so i can trail my Stop Loss to break even, and secure 50% of the position.
also waitin on a 1hr pullback to take a short on EJ. but i think i ll wait for today s candle to close, with the news and all. good stuff. u could take partial profit and set BE, and let some run, i d expect ej to test previous daily lows, ofc nothing is guaranteed but…just a thought
I closed my EUR/JPY short in profits.
Total profit: 285.78 EUR
I exited the trade in 2 portions of 50%.
EUR/JPY has a huge potential for a 500 pip move to the downside, but i need to play it conservatively.
I am happy with this trade all together.
2 days go i shorted GBP/NZD upon a support breakout on the Daily time frame, and following a bearish trend momentum.
Basically i lost 3.11% because i was a bit reckless, since i had 2 wins in a row. This is why it’s crucial to follow the jedi path , and not let emotions guide you. Be focused when you are winning, be focused when you are loosing.
After my Sell Stop order got triggered i opened the economic calendar (not before…) and noticed top tier events for the NZD, which basically pushed my loss 3 seconds after the information came out (i was not sleeping, i was waiting to see what will happen)
What did i learn?
Well, even though you are trading the longer time frames, always always always check the economical calendar for the week, and also check the calendar when you find a valid setup.
This particular setup had 42 pip SL, and i completely forgot that Top Tier news events can spike price 50 pip…and even a 100 pips within minutes.
So, unless my SL is 150 + pips, i need to be mindful of economical events, and manage the trade more nimbly.
Basically i could have closed the trade at a small loss or a small win at a few points in time, but i decided to leave it open, which was a mistake.
Any ways, loosing is a normal part of trading, i am still satisfied with my overall performance these past few months, so today i am continuing to search for potential setups.
Here is a screenshot of the setup
Trading is not an instant gratification venture, even though it’s advertised like that.
And not that the advertisements are not true, technically they are. Yes, you can become a millionaire with only a $100 - from e technical point of view, if you catch the majority of the moves the market makes, yes you can.
The problem is, no one can, not even the most high tech computer…the market’s are like the universe, we can not understand what’s behind it (well, we kinda do…people buying and selling)
I am fascinated how subtle all of this comes to you if you are persistent. I’ve tried to get my friends in to this, and all of them are interested in the financial potential, but not in the whole trading/investing process.
So, it’s not for everyone, i mean you really need passion to get you through the tough and even boringg times. Even for someone as addicted to trading as my self, starring in charts can be boring at times, and i can only imagine what it looks for civilians
Guys, don’t lie to yourselves. You’re gonna have to put in the hours to actually start seeing some consistency and improvement in your trading, and you’re gonna need to keep doing that for a very very very long time, if you have any hopes of actually making this a full time gig.
They say it’s like running a business…yeah, maybe even more than that, psychologically speaking.
It’s Sunday, 16 of February, time to see at what levels we are going to be trading for the upcoming week, and potential catalysts.
EUR/CAD - D: The EUR is falling across the board, here is another pair where a major significant swing point has been broken to the downside. We will monitor this pair.
AUD/NZD -W: I don’t plan on taking any trade on this setup, because the breakout was not clean at all, it’s very messy, no momentum, but since we did get a pinbar on the weekly, i want to see what is going to happen.
This is regarding the Part Time trading strategy. I will post about the 3 SMA setups i am monitoring a bit later.
As far as i am concerned, i have a valid setup to open on the EUR/JPY (Setup number 2)
The only problem i am facing is that i do have a few big EURO events this week. I might cut down on my risk…still ot sure what to do, if you guys have an opinion i would love to hear it.
I set up a Sell Stop order on EUR/JPY yesterday when the market opened. Ideally it would have been in profits, but obviously traders are waiting for the high impact news coming from the EUR tomorrow.
The way the order is set up, i should be safe…if current price action remains.
Basically price has been stalling the entire day, and if the news is positive, it will push this pair up, and if it’s negative, it will push it down, and activate my pending order.
If the news breaches the high of my setup candle (Fridays’s Pinbar), i will cancel the order.
Here are the details, and a screen shot of the setup.
Time Frame: 1D
Type: Sell Stop (Pending Order)
Stop Loss: 119.303
Risk in pips: 52
Risk in %: 2.9
Lot size: 0.63
For those of you who follow this journal, i already had a winning trade on this pair about 2 weeks ago.
The original plan with that trade was to leave a small portion of the trade to run to it’s full potential, but then i decided to play conservative.
Now, price has broken a significant level, and if momentum continues hopefully i will have another winner on EUR/JPY.
Target levels and the entire process of managing the trade, and trailing my stop loss will be determined once i am actually in the trade, and depending of what type of volume i get. If the volume is big enough, of course i want to leave the trade open to reach it’s final target, but if things are moving slower, i will play it conservatively.
I consulted Baby Pips’s ( i’m not sure this is how you spell that) Market Milk to check the trend indicators, the oscillators and volume. And still, it seems this pair has a little more steam to go, before the bulls put their final foot down.
And also, i think that this whole Brexit deal weakened the EUR, since it does not look good when one of the more powerful countries in the world wants to leave. But we as traders don’t care about politics in the absolute, we just care if and how that is going to help us get pips.
I got stopped out on my EUR/JPY short at 1:49 GMT + 1
That big volume green candle was did the damage. I am -3% on this trade (as in every other trade)
So, what happened?
Well, rememmber in a previous post when i mentioned i need to be more careful about my setups? Well, i thought i was, but i really wasn’t.
The setup in itself was perfectly valid, but as i mentioned previosly, if my Stop Loss is bellow a 100 pips, i need to be vary of economical news events. My Stop Loss here was 52 pips, and i believe this is the main reason for this loss.
Basically there was a bunch of news events for the EUR the JPY and GBP (which affects the EUR) which were positive for the EUR, and negative for the JPY, so today the EUR/JPU rallied almost 100 pips, which is insane, since the 7 day ADR for this pair 62 pips, so almost double the volume, and from the looks of it, it’s all because of the news.
Here is how the calendar looks like:
I understand that i learned a valuable lesson today, and there is no point in being depressed over this. But god dammit 2 losses in a row, just after i started getting my momentum. But this is the path that we as traders must go through. Now i understand that if this was a real account, i would have been really pissed off. Not because i am letting my emotions get in the way, but because i could have prevented this.
Losses are normal, but it hurts when you could have prevented them.
So for the next trade, i need to be mindful of:
Stop Loss Size
Basically, if the SL is small, make sure that there are no major news catalyst for the upcoming week, This is especially true for trading the Daily charts, i don’t think this is a regular occurrence for the Weekly, or at all for matter on the monthly.
Now i will try to find another setup.
If there is anything you guys wanna add, please do, any input is valuable.
Yeah and even then you don’t know what will happen. There may be no major news but if Trump tweets something or some tragedy happens you’re still SOL.
I always tell myself “I wouldn’t have known” and that I made the best decision based on what I knew at the time. Hope you don’t beat yourself up too much about this! There are many trades still waiting to be taken!
Trump can effect the scalpers, at least that’s what i have seen so far, not long term trades.
Have you tried using ATR to place your SL? that may help
I haven’t updated my journal in 17 days.
Here we go
As i was doing my Weekend Market Analysis i decided to make a small but significant change in my trading strategy.
On the second strategy i trade - the 3 SMA, i will cut out the 4H timeframe.
The reasons are:
Too many signals
Economical events affect the setups more than i am comfortable with
Again, too many signals
Trading needs to be a balanced act, for me at least, it’s more important to trade in the zone, with a good flow, instead of executing every-little trade signal i get. This will significantly cut down unnecessary screen time, and increase my effectiveness, or so i believe. Even though some of my biggest winners were from this time frame on this specific strategy, quality over quantity is the game i am trying to play.
So, as of this moment, on both my strategies i am only looking at the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Time Frames. Of-course, if necessary i will zoom down to 4H to have a better look at price action, but my setups will not be based on the 4H Time Frame.
My trading has improved significantly since I started focusing on these time frames, mostly weekly. Things move a lot slower and entry points are not as accurate but if you cut your position sizes in half and only trade in the direction of the trend, once it starts moving in your favour then just scale in and aim for the next S/R level.
Thanks for the input.
This has also been my experience, as far as entry points, they might not be as tight as smaller time frames, but at least they are higher quality.
But, i am not comfortable with scaling in. I just risk 3%, play it ultra conservatively, and then scale out as the trade develops.
I trade 28 currency pairs, and rarely focus on one.
But i am noticing something interesting from a technical perspective that is happening with the most popular Forex pair - The Fiber (EUR/USD) on the Monthly time frame.
This is a long term outlook, and it will be a top down analysis.
This is how the monthly chart looks for this pair.
Pink - Monthly
Blue - Weekly
Red - Daily
Obviously this pair has been in a bearish trend for the past 12 years.
Even though the horizontal level has been broken 2 times before, and now again towards the downside. With the volume we have seen this month, price came back up to retest that significant level, and it touched the level to the pip, and immediately went back down, signifying strong market rejection. The monthly candle is still ticking, and we are seeing a formation of a very nice pinbar on the monthly time frame. Of-course, we need for that ticking candle to close in order to make any type of a decision, but so far it looks promising.
If we zoom down to the weekly time frame, we can see a combination of a railway tracks and an outside bar, but both formations very ugly looking, and not the type of price action i would like to get involved in.
For now, i don’t plan on putting a sell stop order based on this weekly candlestick formation, even though i am tempted. Right now, it’s important that i am noticing heavy market rejection, and a potential further move to the downside.
And lastly, i want to share what is happening on the daily time frame.
Basically, after that big push to the upside, price went in to retracement mode, retaracing to the pip to 61.8 Fibbo level. This is great, cause it’s a signal that all the traders are looking at this level.
My train of though is that if price breaks bellow the 61.8, and retests it from bellow, that could be my entry signal, since it will be a confirmation that the bulls are regaining control, and the downtrend is continuing.
Here is the daily chart with Fibbo:
Without overloading this post with to many screnshots, if you zoom up to the Weekly and Monthly with the fibbo, you can see that all formations line up to the 61.8.
Conclusion: I know i have a bearish bias, and want to go short, weather i will get that opportunity this month on the D, W, or a i will play it uber safe by waiting for the monthly to close, remains to be seen.