well gee don’t I feel stupid…that’s an hour of my life that I’m never getting back :o tho it’s comforting that my data entry skills are pretty good should I need to look for a new line of work if this forex thing didn’t work out
I seem to remember ICT makes 2 trades in a given day where he only takes the 2nd trade if the first one didn’t work out. Maybe go for a more aggressive approach initially say at the 50 or 62% retracement to PDL/PDH (as long as it converges with other factors of course) and if that didn’t work out then take the more conservative trade at the PDL/PDH…or whatever. I’m sure you have thought of something better. Just throwing that out there. GL
Was looking at a zoomed out view of the UJ and drew a fib from the top orange line to bottom orange line (daily t/f swing high/low) and find that the PDL 82.34, S1 pivot, and the weekly S1 pivot level are just above the 50% (82.29) level. So my idea is to wait and see if price breaks thru that support, and then set a pending short in wait of a retest of that support turned resistance at the 50% level.
Well, support still held and price bounced up off it. So plan B was to enter at the 50% level of the the PDR (previous daily range- blue lines) which also happens to be the central pivot (yellow line). Plan B should have been preset last night, however, I was too focused on plan A that I overlooked it.
Then this morning seeing that price was there, I entered 2 market orders at 82.67 & 82.72. Talk about being disorganized, I also forgot that I had altered my lot size for one of last weeks pending orders, but MT4 didn’t and my market order was for 2.8 micro lots…oops…so I entered a second order with 2.2 mirco lots…so now I have a combined 1/2 a mini. I was a little sloppy with calculating my optimal lot size because I had to run off to work.
I have my stop just above the PDH which is 32-35 pips, but with 1/2 a mini, the loss will be about $15. Target is just above the PDL at 82.40 for about 30 pips.
Only problem is this is a really slow time of day so it could take awhile to reach either end.
That worked out rather well…target hit for +30. Now since I had 2 orders open, mt4pips has recorded it as 60 pips even tho they weren’t full lot orders.
Ok, so now maybe plan A will play out. Price broke down thru support at 82.35ish so am setting a pending sell order at that price 82.32 should it be retested and hold as resistance. Again the S1 pivot is there, and the H4 flow is still down, and in the sell zone for the monthly pivot.
Stop is at the PDH (82.81) which is a 50pip loss, but at 0.4 lots, it’s only $20. Target will tentatively be set just above the 0% fib I used on Monday at 81.20…120 pips…very ambitious I must say
Plan A would have worked out to a point…first it missed triggering by a couple of pips, then it didn’t reach my target but would have been profitable due to the trailing stop I set for 25 pips.
However, I left the pending order pending into today, and earlier this morning it triggered, but unfortunately price decided to go up all the way past my stop. -50 pips but fortunately was not a full mini lot.
What was kind of funny actually was that I was going to delete that pending at the start of the day because of the pattern price was making. I was going thru the Street Smarts book checking out the Wolfe Wave & Three Little Indian patterns and considered that price may go up considerably based on the projection of the Wolfe Wave…then thought, naaaah, price bias is down, so I left it alone.
Now I see it very well could have been as I marked on the chart. So possible new rule is that the previous day signal should not extend into the next day, and don’t trade against a possible pattern such as these.
My COT composite index (based on the last 52 weeks) says to short the yen and the pound. US dollar seems it might go lower and we also see bearish divergence on US bonds (?). So conflicting signals on GBP/USD however seems to support shorting the USD/JPY. Thoughts?
Hi…yes I’m just having a lazy day recovering from a night out last night …just a tad too much wine :o
Anyways here goes…
US Dollar Index: Down? PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts
Composite COT Report:
80-100% - Look to go SHORT - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely long and Commercials (smart money) are extremely short.
0-20% - Look to go LONG - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely short and Commercials (smart money) are extremely long.
Now JPY is the quote pair so it’s opposite.
JPY: 7.69% = Short
GBP: 69.2% = Stand aside
Interest Rates:
USD = .25%
JPY = .1%
GBP = 1%
Bias: Looks like it’s still saying sell USDJPY this week.
Now for S&R lines on the chart:
H4 flow is up. The PDH (83.09) is at the previous week’s high, which I’ve also got marked as a H4 swing hi resistance area, and in a figure number area of 83.00. As far as the pivots go, we are in the sell zone for the daily, weekly & monthly.
Again with a short bias I will put a pending short @ 83.00 with a 20 pip stop just above the weekly R1, and target the previous session low at 82.40 which is 127% of the PDR and S1.
Well it would appear that my entries suck. Price was rejected at the R1 and didn’t quite make it up the the PDH. My target seemed good this time. A 2nd possible target would have been the 161.8% which also lines up with S2. Perhaps I should work backwards from that using the reciprocol fib of the 161.8% which is 61.8%, which is where the R1 is and where I should have entered. I also just noticed a bullish gartley forming and the D point also completes at the S2, and that would have confirmed a C point entry at R1
I had a couple of potential short orders pending, but price didn’t reach high enough to trigger them…again too shallow of a retrace it seems.
So now price has broken down thru the PDL at 82.29, and coming back up to retest it. I am in short now at 82.26 which is the middle between the PDL and the S1 at 82.24, with a 20 pip stop and a target at 81.96 which is S2 just above last weeks low, the weekly S1, and a double bottom.
I guess I’m a little guilty tonight of being a traitor to USDJPY. It was just too painful tonight watching it try to slink through a 18 pip consolidation. So I peeked at GBPUSD and darn if it wasn’t at the PDH, MR1 & 61.8% fib of a prior swing (last weeks high to this weeks low). I had to take it. Short at 1.5935, stop of 20 pips, target 30 pips at 1.5905 which was just above the Asian session low.
Last week my TDA (top down analysis) that I didn’t post basically said to stand aside…unless I guess one wanted to scalp which I tried a few times and ended up pretty much breakeven…got a little off track so need to get back on track.
Bias: Looks like it’s saying sell GBPUSD this week.
Now for S&R lines on the chart:
On the daily chart price is at the top of an 900 pip range (being an1.6300 top and a 1.5339 bottom) and already bouncing down. I threw on a 5,3,3 stochs and see a bearish divergence on the highs. Flow on the H4 & H1 is down, although up on the daily until it breaks down thru 1.5820ish
The game plan would seem to be to look for pullbacks that converge with pivots and fibs in the sell zone from which to go short. Now the last 2 times my COT indicated extreme readings, the pullbacks were rather shallow, so this time maybe entering around the 38% area is in order.
Well yes to the newbie trader support & resistance would seem complicated, but actually it’s quite straightforward when one takes the time to learn it.
Short trade triggered at the PDH/R1 area at 1.6165. This is also a 50% fib from the high area of 1.6300 to the PDL of 1.6034ish
I did try a couple of short trades earlier testing out the shallow fib levels, but they failed.
Stop is 25 pips, and target is near the Asian session low at 1.6112. It would be handy, if that worked out, to only close 1/2 the position, move stop to break even, and set another target at the PDL.
looks good, your analysis grabed my attention… i been watching gbp/jpy and is at a similar point right now…i manage to grab the pips on the move up and took profit at R1, which is also about 20pips above thursdays high, i been waiting to see what was going to happen…now on the back of your analysis i have decided to test the waters short too. Who knows, anything can happen, but looks like a good entry and may be good one to let run if it gets into profit…waiting
Did you trade short after all? I was concerned, and still am, that it wants to go back up to 1.6300. Whether it was my analysis or luck, it worked out for me that time anyways.
Today’s entry is basically a repeat setup of yesterday. However today I used the midnight to midnight EST OHLC to calc the pivots instead of the 5pm time…I check both each day to see what they look like… and this aligned the R1 right with the PDH much better. I moved my upper fib down a little to last weeks high, and the bottom at Fridays low, so the R1/PDH is at 61.8% too.
So short entry will be 1.6180…an institutional level…, 30 pip stop just above the MR2 pivot, and target near the Asian low at 1.6110
i went short there after all and managed to grab 30pips, as it it did slow up…Today i am short already gbp/jpy just now at 132.47 after it broke through yesterdays low with a bit of momentum.Looking for 50pips at 131.97.
looks like you just order just missed on getting triggered there or did you manually get in…cause it seems it is on its way down now
No price didn’t get up to my entry. When it was at 1.6159, MR1 area (top orange line), I thought that it could go down from there…and before I could really think it thru more, it did…and I missed it. So I thought about using ICT’s OTE (optimal trade entry) and waited for price to bounce up again to the 62-78% area of that first down leg (before the first white circle), but it only made to just above 50% level before resuming down again. So I missed that one as well.
Finally it got down to the PDL (bluey limegreen line) at 1.6088 ish, so I took a long there (first white circle). Went for 15 pips and got them.
Then after I woke up, price had broke thru the PDL and returned to it (2nd white circle), so I entered short for 20 pips, and got them too.
Tonight trying a short from yesterday’s most recent resistance at 1.6085 area…3rd white circle. It’s right into a bold faced bull candle as I think ICT calls them which are rather unnerving to short on. However, the flow on the H4 & D1 is still down so hoping it holds. It’s also the 50% fib of the PDR, and 62% of the yesterdays swing up from the PDL projected onto todays low…fibs are so versatile.
Pending order was triggered at 1.6094. Stop is above the MR1 (middle orange line) at about 20 pips, and target is just above the PDL at 1.6035
Your trading seems to be making a lot of sense these days…That looks like a good entry there for gbp/usd. The 55ema on the 4 hour chart is acting as floor and the Central pivot point (5pmEST pivot) seems to be providing the daily resistance at 1.6085. It looks like its getting ready to break lower…
I already grabbed 50pips with gbp/jpy on the move up from the CPP to yesterdays high and daily R1.
I think i am going to join your short, just going to watch a bit first… perhaps my order might be enough to break the cable lower…lol
Excellent work Sweetpip… I’m so proud of your development. Kill it rolling and it will inspire many more like you… that long for consistency and focus as your thread has showcased in your personal trading. Awesome, Awesome, Awesome… Kudos!!
