Hi Slipshod & SladhaFX, appreciate your acknowledgments
This looks like a nice long setup for EURUSD at 1.3213, with the S2, a monthly low, and a previous demand zone (upper gray area at bottom of chart), plus it has exceeded itâs ADR. Stop is 20 pips @ 1.3193âŚjust below the minor psych line of 1.3200, with a buffer. Ultimate target is the PDL (greenish orange line right of the yellow circles) which is around 70ish pips, but 1st target will only be back up to the 127% fib (yellow line) of the PDR for 25 pips.
DratsâŚthat got stopped out. However, itâs still in the demand zone which was quite wide with a few other significant levels such as the weekly S2 pivot, and the 161.8% of the PDR so I entered again at 1.3193 where it was stopped out. My stop is a bit bigger being below the demand zone this time where is should normally go, but was a little too large before where I entered. Targets are still as before.
I bet youâre regretting that one arenât you haha. I had a bad feeling about the euro after taking a similar loss this morning so Iâve been watching it drop on all of the major currency pairs since then, waiting for a good entry point. With this much of a bear market Iâm not going to settle for anything short of a bullish engulfing to enter. It seems like the euro is dishing out fake outs left and right on the shorter term charts. On the bright side though, I cant wait to go long on some of these monthly(an a few quarterly) low Euro pairs.
Edit: Also this is sort of a newbie question but where do you get your news from when judging market sentiment? I have been using bloomberg for ages but it doesnt seem to have the amount of forex news as it does stock.
Not so much regretting itâŚya win some, you lose some I re-entered and got a little of it back. Being that itâs getting into the later US session, itâll take too long for me, and with the next US news release due out in just over an hour, it could just banter back and forth for a while, so I closed out early due to lack of confidence. Yes a nice bullish engulfing would look good
Sorry almost missed this. I donât use news to judge market sentiment because I donât know what it means half the time so I certainly wouldnât know what it means to the massesâŚlol. I just use forex factoryâs calendar displayed on my chart so I know âwhenâ news reports are coming out so I can avoid trading at those times. Sorry canât be of more help there.
A possible demand zone on the EURJPY for a long at 101.85. We have the 161.8% fib extension of the PDR, the S2 which are close together at 101.80ish (lowest green/yellow lines at the right), and the ADR has been exceeded. I entered at a higher price than those because of the weekly S2 being there as well which could have been a turning point and might not have reached the lower levels. 1st target is the 127%, and 2nd target is the PDL between 30 & 70 pips. Stop is just below the demand zone which is almost 20 pips.
Strange how the trades I post donât work out and the ones I donât post, do work out :33:
Another drats on that last trade I posted that got stopped out. However, my last trade was on USDCAD and since many pairs seems to be on a trend, I thought this time Iâd try a trade with the trend, even if that meant buying when price was at the top of my screen.
The play there was after price broke the PDH and held above for a few candles on the 5min chart, I then placed a pending buystop at the PDH waiting for a retest of the PDH at 1.0350ishâŚwhich it did. The candles on the down moves to retest didnât seem to have much volume so I felt confident enough that there wasnât a lot of supply coming in.
Stop was below the âbaseâ of that breakout about 20 pips. Target was another supply level above with sub targets at the fib & pivot levels. Went to bed and woke up this morning to find +50ish pips. Sweet
This week was a bit about trying the alternate version of the method by trying to trade with a trend by entering on the retest of a broken supply or demand level. The results are mixed but out of 11 trades, 5 losers & 6 winners, came a total of +19.9 pips.
I think part of the problem, besides being December, is that Iâm not gauging the quality of the S&D levels well enough to enhance the odds of a successful trade which is something Iâll be reviewing more over the next couple of weeks. Using Sam Seidenâs criteria, this includes rating the strength of the move from/through/to a level, the number of tests of a level, how long price stayed at a level, the big picture, the time of day, and the distance to the next level to determine risk/reward. Each of these variables is given a score, and the overall score either supports taking a trade, or it doesnât.
Those light blue bars you have there might help you a little. Seidens criteria (strength of the move from/through/to a level, the number of tests of a level, how long price stayed at a level) is much more telling if you include volume and principles of SM activity. But, you knowâŚwhat else am I gonna say lol. However you proceed, best of luck.
I do try to use that too, but using everything at once is too much at first. So to break it down, first I focused on the S&D part, now on the Odds Enhancers, and then try to put it all together with VSAâŚwhich like you said should be very telling
âŚand of course I say, without VSA from the beginning, youâre not getting much actual info on the supply/demand balance. Just trying to help because after all this time trading, you still seemed like youâre searching. ok, Iâll shut up now lol. Proceed with your thread.
Hi mozdef,
I donât think I stopped following ICTâs methodâŚI still use much of it such as the confluence of the daily/weekly/monthly highs & lows, pivots & fibs and taking into consideration the average daily range & candle formations. My computer crashed this summer and I lost my COT data & charts, and Iâve been slow in recreating them.
Recently I got into supply & demand vs S&R which are pretty much the same thing except for the previous price action at these levels. Price behaves more dramatically at some S&R levels than others and that combined with some other factors, called odds enhancers, can be very powerful.
My problem is timing. When you guys are all jumping and anticipating setup at the London & US opens, Iâm pretty much zonked out from already being up 18 hrs and have to get to bed to be semi functional at work, so Iâm not very active on his threadâŚyou could say I stopped participating in the thread, but still follow quite often in stealth mode
Wow, so youâre using volume, s&r, supply&demand, average range, pivots, fibs, candle patterns, cot info, every high & low level in the book + odds enhancers too?
Iâm surprised your head hasnât crashed along with your computer.
This guy is being very diplomatic with his advice, but to do you a genuine favor he really should be very blunt.
Stop following all the forum geniuses, brush all that crap off your charts, get back to basics & load up 1, perhaps 2 items max on that list that youâre comfortable using & really start getting familiar with how they interact with the price action.
If this is simply a hobby then fine, carry on. But if you have ambitions to perhaps take it beyond that stage youâre going have to make some serious decisions & quickly, because youâre drowning in a sea of overly complex mush.
Lady, you donât need another story. Judging by the amount of time youâve spent sashaying around this place youâve got more than enough of those to last you a lifetime.
What you need is to take that guys advice & strip all that padding down to something more manageable.
Thatâs going to be awful tough because youâre so heavily invested, but as we all know from time to time, lifeâs a b*tch.
Man, without any reference on what makes your advise any better than the rest of the âforum geniusesâ, Iâll just stick to the plan Iâve been creating for my self these past several months which has been working out rather well. The only thing complicated about it is the way you put it⌠which is not quite accurateâŚand is of no help to me.
Of course you will
Itâs probably what youâve been doing every year for the past 5 years, & what youâll be doing again this time next year, which no doubt prompted Petefader to make that comment. And I bet heâs not the first one to make that observation either.
I re-entered and got a little of it back. Being that itâs getting into the later US session, itâll take too long for me, and with the next US news release due out in just over an hour, it could just banter back and forth for a while, so I closed out early due to lack of confidence. Yes a nice bullish engulfing would look good 
