Pips of GLORY - Smart Money Trading

Sweet_Pip · March 15, 2012, 2:04pm

5th trade of the week just triggered…short EURUSD from 1.3100. Stop at 1.3123, and target is 1.3030 (3:1).

I’m not sure I like this area so much anymore after looking a little closer to the drop in price to the left that is a little more substantial than one 50 pip bar I was basing my level on. I will be home for lunch in an hour so if I’m in profit at all by then, I may close the order and reset it higher up at 1.3138.

Update:
When I got home I changed the stop to 1.3080 and waited, but then had to go back to work and when I saw it was at +10, I decided to close it rather than leave it. Price was reacting between the 62% & 38% fibs of that prior down swing, and the 38% level was actually only 10 pips more than I took so I’m ok with that. However, if it does go to my original target then I have to learn to trust more! On the otherhand, this 38% fib could be a swap level now if it’s going to head back up to 1.3138ish.

OMFX · March 22, 2012, 4:06pm

Hi Sweet Pip,

I only started to learn forex trading about a year ago. My one year experience has been very frustrating…almost given up. By chance or fate, I came across ICT’s thread about a month ago, which gives me some hope. I have been trying to read all his threads and view his videos ever since…still going on…just too many of them but they are very good materials. I learned about you through reading ICT’s first thread. One of your posts, you mentioned about MT4 trading simulator for backtesting. Can you please point me to where I can get the simulator, or if you can share it (only if you can)? Thank you!

I will also be following your thread occasionally to learn how you apply ICT’s method and tools…being one of the early “disciples” of ICT. Hope you don’t mind.

GLGT!
OMFX

Sweet_Pip · May 15, 2012, 7:54pm

Phew…I finally got myself back up to the starting point once again after plunging in big loss territory, but unfortunately I can’t attribute it to any methods I’ve practised thus far. So once again I have a new approach that I will continue on with for the next little while.

I won’t continue it in this thread because it’s changed a couple times already from the beginning and would just be confusing, so instead, if the results I’m getting continue, then I will start a new thread because it does cover an approach that isn’t widely discussed here which is trading pairs based on the strength and weakness of each currency… and how one arrives at that determination. That’s the only “odds enhancer”/edge I need…not a list of them. I’m also getting away from fibs and pivots…too many lines to cast doubt and paralysis of analysis. Combine that with a little price action/candlestick patterns and it’s seems quite simple, used on a 30 min timeframes seems to offer up a few good trades a week to keep the itchy trigger satisfied…lol.

So thanks for the support in the past but if this doesn’t quite pan out, then I’m afraid it might be time to bow out with an “at least I tried” and no regrets.

o990l6mh · May 16, 2012, 6:24pm

I’ve been tinkering with that kind of approach myself in the past, without much success though to be honest.

Even though I’ve found my groove, I’d love to learn what you’re up to

Oh, and don’t quit! You’ll get there and when you do you’ll be glad you stuck to it. That’s the way I feel now.

Sweet_Pip · May 18, 2012, 1:33pm

Thanks for the vote of confidence…we’ll see. Here’s what I’m up to now… 301 Moved Permanently

TradeViper · May 27, 2012, 7:15pm

Sweet, I was just thinkin that maybe a short might be in order here on the Euro, maybe 78-81, I’m not trading it, holiday in US tomorrow, but you never know.

The Ever Trying To Know VIPER

Peirce · July 21, 2012, 3:13pm

Anyone home? Sweet Pip are you still trading?

system · July 28, 2012, 9:49am

Sweetpip… status report.

Sweet_Pip · August 24, 2012, 7:30pm

I’m reviewing…it was interesting to reread all my posts…for awhile there (a year ago) it sounded like I knew what I was doing…lol. Then I started tweaking things and it all went to hell in a handbag so to speak. Seems like I need to go back and undo the tweaks and try it again :20:

Sweet_Pip · September 5, 2012, 11:27pm

I’m back

Here is a chart of a trade setup for a long on the EURAUD. I chose this pair because the EUR is strong and the AUD is weak according to a strength analysis. I have chosen the price of 1.2330 which is shown to have a confluence of a few factors favoring it. They are:

a broken prior resistance (big black candle at left) that could become a pullback support in an uptrend
the 50% of the prior daily range as well as (labeled middle yellow line)
the weekly R1 (dashed red line)
and the RSI is heading down to below 35 level, or oversold area.

Looking for it to bounce up to try a triple top at the new resistance at 1.2390, so my target is below that for a possible +60 pips. Stop is below the 61.8% PDR fib of 1.2313 which is about -20 pips.

I have a pending order waiting for price to pull back to it.

Results:

Ended up getting stopped out by about 3 pips. I was thinking 1.2330 was too early but you never know how much of a pullback price will go…sometimes a shallow retrace or a deep. I just have to compensate my stop a little better it seems which was just below the 61.8% fib and too close. My target was actually 1.2350 which would have been reached otherwise.

What I wanted to record before each trade was the strength analysis and the 6 best currencies to be paired…at the time of the this trade the strongest currencies were EUR, GBP & CHF, and the weakest were AUD, USD & NZD.

cwstan · September 13, 2012, 1:21pm

do you analysis AUD/USD? May I know what is your view of this pair?

Sweet_Pip · September 13, 2012, 3:51pm

Hi cwstan,
According to the strength analysis, the AUD (-6) & USD (-7) are basically at equal strength with both being the weakest of all the currencies analyzed. So therefore, the AUDUSD would not be considered when a setup occurred because either currency can “take control” since they are of equal strength which means we give up the edge.

The strongest currencies right now according to the analysis are EUR & CHF so it would be better to look at EURUSD & EURAUD for long entries, or USDCHF & AUDCHF for shorts, when when it’s PA aligns up with whatever method you use.

Hope that helps

cwstan · September 14, 2012, 12:15am

thx Sweet pip… what is your view for this QE3? Furthermore, I would like to know there still have any meaning to trade CHF? because what I know CHF have pair with EUR so the movement will be same right?

Sweet_Pip · September 14, 2012, 12:53am

Hiya,
I really don’t have much of a view on the QE3…I just view the reaction to it on the charts and then figure out where to place my trades. I’m not a fundamentalist, just a techy

As for EUR and CHF, if you mean they are both strong currencies, then I just know I won’t be trading that pair.

Sorry couldn’t be of more help

Sweet_Pip · September 15, 2012, 1:29pm

Getting back into the “swing” of things, I’ve been reminded of when I used to use channels and have decided to incorporate them again, but this time on a more of a multi-timeframe application.

Using the Linear Regression Channels, I will plot them on the Weekly, Daily, & hourly t/fs using different colors for each. My color standards for any of my multi-timeframe S&R lines are Green for monthly, Lime for weekly, Orange for daily, Red for H4, and Yellow for daily.

So now, after selecting a few pairs to work with depending on their strength/weakness relationship, I will follow the trend on the hourly timeframe until it reaches the outer limits of it’s channel within the daily timeframe, which is governed by the weekly channel.

At this point the strongest currencies are EUR & CHF , while the weakest are USD & JPY &…so I’ll be watching pairs with those strong/weak currency relationships…ie EURUSD, USDCHF, EURJPY & CHFJPY.

Then my strategy will be to enter on pullbacks when entering a trend, or bounces when a channel limit has been reached. If a channel will be broken, then a loss will occur which should be my feedback to look for a trend change.

I used this to enter a short Friday on the EURUSD after the dust had settled. I was trying to get a long in, but it didn’t give much in the way of pullbacks after that QE3 business…lol. But I didn’t really want to catch a falling knife either. So I waited until the US session to look for a bounce short off the upper channels of both the daily, and weekly, after the big push up during the London which put it way past it’s usual average daily & weekly range, so looked like a good time/place for the big boys to take a bit of profit taking just before the markets closed for the week. Got a semi-quick 20+pips

Here’s a look at the Weekly which is showing the most recent weekly (lime) channel being broken by the daily (orange) channel…so of course a short at the weekly channel limit would have been a loss… feedback indicating a possible weekly trend reversal now to the upside. Following the daily channel then, it could now move down to the opposite side (retrace) before resuming up again as I’ve marked up on the Daily chart.

Anyways, that’s the strategy tweak this time…we shall see

Weekly Chart:

Daily Chart:

Windsurfer · December 1, 2012, 4:19am

Sweet Pip, are you trading a live account? Which broker do you use? I am from BC too.
What do you know about Friedberg Direct (FXCM Canada)? Thank you!