What the hell. Short the S&P just above the daily pivot. I got faith huh!!! LOL!!!
Ah what the hell. Short Euro Stoxx 50 at ABOVE R1!!! LOL!!!
That What I was just thinking!!
I think this is really key to success. I believe that it gives you so much flexibility and you’re not “all in” even at max proper risk management, that when it does/is going in your favor you can press the pedal to the metal and go all egyptian, pyramiding like no-bodies mummy!!
KC
Must say that in sitting watching these things I’m seeing a bit of a pattern and the patter is this:
ALWAYS does price trade to either R1 or S1. What happens after that is of course up to Mr. Market.
What I’m saying is this:
Let’s assume the MF says to go short. Fine. But probably the best trade you could try and do with this is to short at R1 or long at S1 and NOT at the daily pivot. From my albeit short period of monitoring this: even if price opens below a pivot it seems to go above the pivot to R1 and then back down again (and hopefully to S1).
Other thing I’ve noticed is that individual stocks obey these levels even better (the large caps.) and sooner. Suppose that’s no surprise.
Ah what the hell. Short the NASDAQ as well!!! LOL!!!
Alright in this case:
The NASDAQ has traded up past the daily pivot. It opened halfway between the daily pivot and S1 so it’s not as yet traded to S1 today. I’ve placed a stop order sell just south of the daily pivot. As a rule my stop orders don’t get slipped (too much) so although it’s not my usual modus operandi should be fine. TP is obviously S1 (just slightly north).
Beauty of this method of course is that I"m not IN the trade until price starts trading below the daily pivot.
Well something just pissed with the markets.
I’m sure that one could get to read this stuff as it happens.
I’m just sitting staring at 15m charts. And you can see that NOTHING happens. And then all of a sudden you get a flurry on movement. In this case I was watching he NASDAQ start rolling over but with a lot of “jiggling” around but to the downside,
And then it stopped…
And then it started again…
BUT NOW:
Turns out the Durable Goods number just came out bad. BUT: the first little flurry in price that I spoke about above started at least 30 seconds before the figures came out. Mind you: I’m streaming Bloomberg so there’s probably latency involved.
Actually no. This post was started 8m ago now. Durable goods only came out 4 minutes ago.
NASDAQ short order executed. No slippage.
Uh Huh. Trump Tweeting about firing Powell. Never a dull moment.
Well. TPs not hit. But closed out at overall profit on all of the above (only smallish loss was on the DAX). About 200 net. And that is JUST fine. Later. Tomorrow. Morning.
Well. We’re off again.
I’m short the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ.
Given the close correlations it may be worth mentioning that so far I’ve just been calculating the MF for the Dow (although I will expand this once I’m 100% happy with what’s going on here).
When I woke up this morning these things were already trading just north of R1 in all cases so I just shorted them at market. TPs are at S1 of course.
Must say that my clarity here is dumbfounding. I have finally realized why it’s necessary to calculate the Trend Balance Point for the next day. Essentially what it’s doing is keeping you in a particular trade of the TP for that particular trade had not been executed during the previous trading day. OR it’s telling you to reverse the position if the momentum has changed and so far as I can tell when this does happen: your loss is a mere fraction of your intended risk.
Yesterday’s trades of mine were good examples. I closed out at profits (except the DAX as noted) just for the hang of it. But the whole idea of the thing is that if price had closed below the TBP then the TP for today would be moved to S1 on those trades. In other words: it’d not be unreasonable to think that one could stay in a trade for a few days and end up with a great profit i.e. if some type of short term trend developed then you basically be moving the TP everyday until it got hit. Wow.
I’m really and truly thinking about reopening the entire book now what with all of this clarity!!!
■■■■ me.
As I just posted on my other main thread.
Something spooked the markets. Mainly the Dow.
Dow TP hit. +R/$622. Now that’s more like it.
How’s this for a move (short from just above R1, straight through the pivot, down to TP at S1):
Dow 15m 27062019 1227
Nice work if you can get it daily I’d say!!! LOL!!!
Well. The Monthly prognosis.
As some may know: I’ve closed out my two dumb positions on my account. Sad. But the right thing to have done.
So I am now flat (no positions and no orders).
Here is the interesting thing though.
I actually made, since last Monday, 2651.10 JUST out of trading these pivots (or my bastardized version of Wilder’s TBPS). And that is a net i.e. clean and clear. I’ve no way of working out whatever percentage that is as there have been capital deposits and withdrawals. Suppose the only way of coming even close to estimating is to say the position sizes were based on a 55K account. On that basis we’re talking about 4.8% or thereabouts. That’s not too bad considering that for the first week my lot sizes were much smaller due to my being a little TOO conservative with position sizing. Also not too bad considering that I closed these trades before the close every night regardless of whether they were in profit or loss i.e. never continued to let them run as per Wilder’s method. So. There you have it.
Now that I’m out and have some time on my hands I think I’ll complete a worksheet that will allow me to trade the TBPS on one or two instruments but without having to strain my brain trying to work out the flipping TBP late every night. May even write a little piece of software to do the job.
Sooooooooo… There you have it folks. Pretty darn interesting.
Well. You can add a tad more than 550 to the total!!!
Man. I"m tellin’ ya: there’s something to these pivots.
In about the last two hours:
All I did was short the DAX at R1. Then it went up. Then I checked the S&P. It had not yet traded to R1. So I took a small loss on the DAX (like 50 or thereabouts). So I shorted the S&P at R1. That went up. Then I checked the Dow. And that had not traded to R1. So I waited for the Dow to hit R1 and then just shorted it. And then shorted the S&P and the DAX again. And hey presto. Monitored all three to see which one (the lower of them all) was about to hit the next lowest level. The Dow started trading down to the daily pivot. Moment that happened and it got close: closed them all out at profit. Basically 1% for the day. Actually just over slightly.
And here’s the sheer beauty of this. Given that I’m now REALLY doing something that for some reason or the other I just couldn’t get myself to do: I made sure that I would close any position out at 1% loss. Never came anywhere near. But that’s because??? Of my risk based position sizing. In other words: the opening position SIZES were based on ATR and 5% of capital. But once in the trades: the actual losses possible were only 1% per trade. I don’t know if that makes sense. But it does. Point is: you don’t have to trade with fixed stops and worry about getting stopped out i.e. had I done this exercise using the traditional method of placing orders and then stop loss orders just above then I would have gotten stopped out for sure enough times for me to have walked away in disgust.
There’s a lesson up there for one thing i.e. you need to wait for the US to trade to these levels I think. Then you can go wild on the other stuff if you like.
MAN. I dunno why it’s taken me so long to see this stuff or be able to actually get myself to trade this stuff. I’m am almost 100% sure it’s because of my position sizing and therefore no need for stops.
What’s even more surprising is that this was a flipping FRIDAY AFTERNOON and with all this holding pattern for the weekend going on. Just imagine what could happen on a normal day and under normal market conditions!!! I intend to find out next week I can tell you.
BUT NOW:
It could VERY well be time for me to reinstate my TC2000 subscription. Among SO much other stuff: that gives you NYSE up tick and down tick info. in real time. Now when I did have it: it did nothing for me. I was trying to trade some BS system in John F. Carter’s books. And it never gelled with me. But I watched the above happening on 1m charts. And I could see what was happening on the charts but not what was happening behind the moves. The basic premise is that when these things take off (and let’s say price is moving up) then the number of up ticks starts climbing. In a sustained move they reach a sort of fever pitch. Then they start dying down. Now if that dying down starts happening at a pivot level then you simply fade the move. Dunno. Need to see if it’s worth doing this now for me (given the situation). Unfortunately it costs i.e. there is the subscription as well as the exchange data feeds. But in the last two hours and without better information: I just paid half that subscription!!! And for the first time in my miserable trading life: “I get it (the ticks)”.
You can actually see it on a 1m chart. Price MOVES big time. It then gets to some point (usually just north of south of a pivot) and it starts slowing down. At that very point is when the tick volume is running out of steam. Then it just sits around and drifts up and down and up and down. Then just from a broker chart: all of a sudden you start seeing the price to begin “jiggling around”. And this jiggling then starts to get more pronounced. And at that point there is some move coming. At that point you don’t really know which way it’s going or what the bias is. That is all in the ticks!!! The NYSE symbol is $TICK. And then there’s other stuff like $TRIN and $TRAN (and so on and so forth i.e. not giving a crash course in exchange data here).
Anyways. That’s me done for the day, the week, and the month obviously.
Oh and just in case somebody sees this and gets clever:
This is NOT the same as those utterly useless tick charts that brokers give you. I’m talking about the actual exchange ticks which are nothing more than a trade on the exchange and is regardless of volume traded. In other words: a buy is an up tick and a sell is a down tick. So when up ticks start climbing and becoming feverish then it means there’s a shitpile of buy orders getting executed and same on the sell side. And that, I’m told, is where the rubber meets the road. Never quite “got it” until today.
And I tell what ELSE is interesting:
These trades were just taken i.e. no confirmation from Wilder’s MF or TBPS. But here’s the thing: had I bothered with that last night I would have gone long at the open, TPs were hit at just about the same time I started shorting this afternoon. Those were BOTH way trades. And sure nice work if you can get this action every day. And frankly I no longer see it as being impossible or even difficult anymore.
Anyways. I’m glad I’m flat now. I know for sure I’d not be able to stomach sitting on open positions over this particular weekend with this US/China nonsense going on. Done that too many times years ago. You cannot enjoy your weekend or live because you’re sitting looking for any little bit of news. And let me tell you: it’s terrible knowing over the weekend that what you thought was going to happen hasn’t panned out and you know for sure that you’re going to get ripped a new arsehole at the open on Sunday night. Not worth it EVEN IF you are on the right side.
1 Like
Thought I’d check on what happened last night after I closed out as detailed above.
Below is a 1m chart of the Dow. CLEARLY it doesn’t pay to hang around and be greedy on these types of trades. Had I not closed out all of the shorts when one of them hit the daily pivot I’d have ended up taking losses albeit that they would have been pretty minuscule. But a loss is a loss. The S&P, matter of fact, shot up in those last thirty to forty minutes to above R2 (matter of fact it close right at the mid point between R3 and R2 almost to the cent).
So there you go.
Now to further this endeavor I got a complete and very pleasant surprise last night. It appears that TradeStation Technologies (the technology division of TradeStation Securities) has come down to earth and is no longer charging exorbitant amounts for what is arguably the finest trading and analytical platform on the planet. $99 Monthly which (so far as I can tell) includes real time exchange data: NASDAQ Level 1, AMEX, NYSE and OPRA This ladies and gentlemen boy and girls is GOLD. I can ill afford it at this time. But it could very well that this notion is a false economy i.e. the stuff is indeed the keys to the kingdom especially for trading pivots and tick fades. So I shall see what I decide over this weekend.
Level the Playing Field with TradeStation Analytics
And what’s more:
I see that TradeStation Global now has available CME Micro E-mini Futures available for trading. In addition: one can open a trading account with $1 000 mimum. Now truth be told: I couldn’t be happier with by broker. But man: this is tempting I’ll tell you. TradeStation has always been out of my reach due to the US minimum margin requirements. But things are changing so it would seem.
CME Group Micro E-mini Futures
This is HUGE. And there is NO excuse for ANYBODY to be ■■■■■■■ around with spot FOREX anymore!!!
Anyways. Back to the trades.
Dow 1m 28062019 2300
Alright. Well. Huge gaps up in all of the Futures (as noted on my other thread).
But you cannot beat these pivots man. Every single instrument gapped right up to a pivot level (whether it be to a main pivot or a mid point).
Anyway. Trade for the day shall be shorting the S&P at R3 (and possibly even at R4 i.e. I have a feeling that we’re going that high during the next 24 hours or so). Matter of fact I’d better manually calculated R4 as I don’t even have R4 on either my account platform or TradeStation.
How do you like THIS for an opening gap!!!
I shall be shorting the ■■■■ out of this stock once the S&P trades to an extreme pivot level this afternoon.
Apple Inc. 15m. 01072019 1233
Tell you the sad part though:
With Wilder’s TBPS: one would have gone long all of this stuff at the close on Friday. In all cases: the gaps would have resulted in your TP orders being slipped real nice in your favor and every single trade would have been over at nice profits within the first second after the open. Only problem is that somebody like me wasn’t prepared to take the chance of something going awry this weekend with Mr. Trump & Co. there. So I can live with the fact that I was flat coming into this week i.e. could have gone badly the other way (in which case stops would have been slipped BADLY against you).
Well as I sit here a patiently wait…
Below is a 15m chart of the S&P Futures. As can be seen I have a limit sell order just south of R3. The moment that order is executed I’m then ready to short the Dow, NASDAQ, and the DAX regardless of where price is in relation to the their respective pivots (albeit that they’re all trading right now at extremes). Target will be the moment any one of them trades to R2 today (well just north of R2 anyway).
I’m not using the NYSE ticks as yet for this nor am I fading the ticks today i.e. still trying to get something ironed out with TradeStation.
SP 500 15m 01072019 1440
Just to clarify further:
The targets are not carved in stone. More often that not I see price moving to a certain point and then it appears to stall. This may or may not be at the pivot. And profits are being taken on a discretionary basis at this point in time as well i…e as soon as I have deemed that a profit is “good enough” then I’m out regardless.
All trades are closed at the close regardless.
And most important: I know already what my risk based position sizes are to be on the four instruments mentioned i.e. this worked out early this morning already and is only valid for trades today.
RIght. Well in sitting watching price for the first few minutes on the S&P it seems to be having a really hard time breaking above that line. So I jumped in short on all. Have cancelled the limit sell for now but have an alarm set at the same price so will assess where we’re at if the level is reached.
This is one of the main reasons I want to have access to $TICK. There could be no surer trade than tick a frantic up tick extreme going into a pivot.
Morning (again).
Right.
Today we’re going supercharged.
I’ve just calculated the MF for the S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, and DAX. All long entries. Should have gone long at market on all four just before the close last night but too taxing for my brain at that time of night to do these calcs. I have to formulate a better way of doing them. Anyway: have placed limit buy orders at yesterday’s closing prices. I’m short these same instruments with my core trading system but am fortunate enough to be able to open positions in opposing directions on a handful of instruments (the S&P, Dow, and DAX being three of them and unfortunately not the NASDAQ). Unfortunately prices have moved up slightly since the close last night. Am tempted to just jump in at market. But may as well wait and see i.e. my main trades today will be shorting at R2 and R3 so if I don’t get these too bad I guess. But this the reason I say the supercharged version i.e. going long as per the MF to start the day’s trades, TP at R1 (in this case), then short at R2 or R3 on the very same day.