Hi Muba,
I am new to Forex too.. so the following is just my opinion , hope I dont mislead you :)
First of all, I would suggest that you prepare a trading plan with clear entry and exit rules, which timeframe is the primary time frame that you get the entry and exit signal , that way , you will not have a question on which direction the chart is going .. the more important question is : is the risk to reward ratio good enough to put on the trade.
Try to use less indicator on the chart , when I started in early this year , I also think that the more confirmation that I have , the better is my trade , I am not saying that was wrong, is just that you might have to wait for months to have a signal. ( based on your chart is 4Hr , I assume you get your signal from 4Hr chart. ) I am not a person that can wait for three months for one signal … hehe
Answer to your question :
1 since the bollinger band isconverging a strong trend or breakout is about
to happen
Yes, by definition when BB is converging it may have a breakout. When trying to gauge the direction of the breakout, I will check the lower and higher timeframe, Example, if you are using 4Hr time frame, check the 1 Hr and daily chart , just to make sure they all agree before you enter the trade.
2 RsI and Stochastic are below 50 but not yet in the oversold region
If you look at the trendline that I draw on my RSI, it would be bearish bias if the RSI break the trendline and start going down again.
3 There is a bearish crossover of MACD
I dont use MACD , so I have no comment for this 
Based on my analysis as of 25/11/2007 22:00 GMT :
I have draw two Fib level on the chart, Both is also sitting at 50% , my overall bias will be bearish.
This is what I will do if I want to get into this trade.
Assuming I have 5000 capital, and I am risking 2% of it, which is 100 dollars.
I will sell short @ 2.0668 ( 61.8% Fib of the small fib.) Stop Loss @ 2.0768 ( 50% of the large Fib ) , Risk 100 Pips, therefore, I will sell one Mini lot at those level.
As for profit target, I will be looking at 2.0450 ( previous low ) as my first target and then 2.0400 ( support trendline from daily chart ) as my second target.
Risk to reward ratio 1:1 ( if take profit at 2.0450 ) or 1:1.5 ( if take profit at 2.0400 ) . Generally , I will be looking for 1:2 ratio, so I might sit out for this
Please take note the above exmaple is just to illustrade what happen in my head when I am analysing a trade … it is not a buy or sell recommendation … I dont think I am qualified for that yet …heheh
I believe there is no right or wrong answer about how you interpret a chart and it is really not that importat to be right or wrong for one particular trade. Develope a trading system , back test it and you will have much more confidence to put on a trade.
just for the record, I have blow out my first trading account. ( 5k ) and now is back to demo trading until I get have consistant result … I think patient and persistant is the key in Forex trading … 
Hope this help and happy trading !!
Peter
