Please Read & Comment!

Hello, new to these Forums and the Forex as well, I have been spending alot of my time researching what many have different names for. Some call it a Game, Gambling, Career, Crapshoot… No need to go on, you get the idea. Please continue reading, I am not bashing the Forex in any way, I just can’t seem to find consistant information.

The people who consider this a career are generally people posting on various Platform Forums which, of course everyone would love this to be their career, I know I would. (Generally Bias Opinions)

The people who consider this a Gamble, Game or so far as to say Crapshoot/Luckfest are likely people who are scorned from their losses which are likely derived by various mistakes.

So why am I posting this, what is my question? I need to know just how much of this is a game of luck. I know its all predictions/trends so you can’t say theres no luck involved, simply because there is. I have read through the School, which I give many thanks to the people who shared their wealth of information, I am demoing some different systems and I am indeed a Noob. I have some experience dealing with swings in a similiar type game but because I rather not debate its similarities ill opt not to name it, just saying the swings don’t bother me much if at all.

I’ve read through alot of crap on various forums saying they make 10% a week consistantly over xx months/years, which if it’s luck, I get people go on runs in other types of markets/games all the time, often giving it all back in the end. How many of these people do exactly that? How many are actually using systems that consistantly yield that high of a return.

My next question is, if these people are indeed being honest and not just catching an amazing up swing why arent millions investing in this such as the Forbes 500 list. If someone could consistantly break this market like I keep reading, well it just doesnt make sense because insert billionare here would be employing teams of the best traders to make him/her tons of money, few to none of them actually do so though. (Public tax records indicate this, atleast the ones I researched)

Hopefully I didn’t draw this out to much as I am looking over it, it seems lengthly but this is a pretty rational question. No reason to not read it, I am not talking trash about Forex in any way, merely seeking solid information. I am hoping the posts are true and more then a small handful of people are proffitable in this market. Just sounds to good to be true, someone has to lose money for someone to win money or wouldnt the economy crash?

If this is more Luck then Skill, I wish all who read this in it’s entirety the Best of Luck! :slight_smile:

Muck…

I’m sure there are more qualified people to answer the questions you pose. Will give it a shot here. I think there are different reasons to be in different markets. I mean if you have billions of dollars would you be ok with yourself betting billions on the usd demise and helping push it down? Just to stay with the longterm trend? Or would your idealogy change and want to see some good come from the money if your going to make a profit regardless. Forex is just like any other Market when you break it down to its smallest increments. Just a numbers game. Best just to diversy across several markets instead of everything riding in just one avenue.

There is vast amounts of money being traded on Forex, heck Warren Buffett himself has ventured outside of Stock Market and has been shorting the Dollar since like 2003 or so. Won’t get into his venture into Silver which blew up in his face. ;o)

Forex has a tendency to blow up in a new investors face, faster than the old buy and hold with stocks. Since you have the option of leverage to speed up the process, without credit checks like Stocks and can short without account balance of 25k like Stocks. Alot will call it a gamble, which in true in some sense, but in other sense everything in life is a gamble, nothing is a guarantee.

I would imagine if you have dominated and created vast billions of an account balance. would be like any other market and you could actually swing the currency rate if trying to employ a huge team to dump it all too fast, dumping it slow would create the rolls that everyone tries to identify and jump on for the ride.

Two most famous people that pop to mind would be longterm Warren Buffet and short term George Soros that get most of the spotlight. But sure there are thousands that don’t get the spotlight or really just don’t want the limelight. Even in Stock Market you or I don’t really hear about indiviuals that made a million overnight, but it does happen sometimes.

Two ways to make money in Forex that come to mind. Either big bank roll or small bank roll and being more conservative with the leverage so you can slowly amass money and reduce the risk of being whiped out in the process.

Bazooko has a thread where he isn’t even using indicators and 3 month demo’ing, long and short merely on a toss of a coin. Mainly to prove if you have solid Money Management you can still stay in the “game”. It isn’t a profitable system it is down obviously. But in 3 months it hasn’t got anywhere near to being whiped out. Just down slightly. If that is true and he has posted the results in the thread everynight. Then would lead you to assumption if you can employ some indicators or price action to swing the odds of identifying the trend then you could be profitable.

My thoughts on it anyways… ;o)

I guess you could consider it biased since they’re making money from it. It’s biased in much the same way that stock traders encourage others to trade stocks, or real estate investors say it’s the best way to make money. They do it, they make money at it, so to them it’s great.

The people who consider this a Gamble, Game or so far as to say Crapshoot/Luckfest are likely people who are scorned from their losses which are likely derived by various mistakes.

I’ve explored many forums when I first started looking at Forex. What I’ve found is that those who call Forex a scam usually jumped into it without learning how it works, then look for someone else to blame for their losses. I once read a post by someone who has lost over $5,000 in a live account, and then proceeded to post the most basic questions that should have been asked before he even started demoing, let alone opening a live account!

Forex is no more a gamble than the futures market or the stock market, both of which make a lot of people a lot of money. Of course, a lot of people lose a lot of money in those venues, too, but the same thing happens in real estate investing. Any market can turn against any investor at any time. That’s why knowledge and discipline are required. Without those two essential elements, it truly is a gamble, since the “trader” has no idea what he/she is doing.

I need to know just how much of this is a game of luck. I know its all predictions/trends so you can’t say theres no luck involved, simply because there is.

See my comments above. Predictions/trends are used in any investment situation, as nobody knows what the future will hold.

I’ve read through alot of crap on various forums saying they make 10% a week consistantly over xx months/years, which if it’s luck, I get people go on runs in other types of markets/games all the time, often giving it all back in the end. How many of these people do exactly that? How many are actually using systems that consistantly yield that high of a return.

High? I guess it depends on who you talk to. Don’t consider it crap just because it falls outside of conventional thinking. I know people who do more than 10% in a week consistently. As with any market, there are good weeks and bad weeks. You have to look long term and use proper money management to be able to ride the bad weeks to take advantage of the good weeks.

I will say, though, that my experience with the Forex forums has shown that the vast majority of posts are pure garbage. Anyone who tells you that they have an automated system to trade that makes them $x guaranteed is full of it. There is no guarantee of profits in Forex anymore than there is in the stock market, real estate, or any other investment. In that sense, every investment is a gamble.

Many people are focused more on having an automated system to trade for them than they are on learning how to trade profitably themselves. Then, when that “system” doesn’t work (because computers can’t adapt to the changing market conditions like we humans can), then blame their broker for their losses.

Along with that, many people are attracted to “trading the news” because of the potential for huge profits in a short time, despite the regular advice of experience traders telling them not to trade during news announcements.

Of course, most lose their money because they don’t understand (or don’t want to believe) that the price can jump rapidly (not just move up rapidly, I mean actually jump from one price to another without touching any prices in between), and they constantly cry that their broker didn’t fill their Stop Loss (some don’t even put one in!).

I read about one “trade” who regular trades the news without a Stop Loss and has now started a monthly fee advisory service!

My next question is, if these people are indeed being honest and not just catching an amazing up swing why arent millions investing in this such as the Forbes 500 list. If someone could consistantly break this market like I keep reading, well it just doesnt make sense because insert billionare here would be employing teams of the best traders to make him/her tons of money, few to none of them actually do so though. (Public tax records indicate this, atleast the ones I researched)

Many people are under the impression that just because some investment makes a lot of money, that every rich person in the world is involved in it. Does that really make sense? That would mean that every rich person is involved in everything that makes them money, and we know that’s not true.

For example, Donald Trump loves real estate development. He made his fortune with that type of investment and it’s obviously very lucrative. So does that mean that every other rich person is involved in real estate development? Obviously not. Why? Because, although it will make them a lot of money, it’s not something that peaks their interest.

For the most part, people invest in things that interest them, not just because it will make them a lot of money.

I am hoping the posts are true and more then a small handful of people are proffitable in this market. Just sounds to good to be true, someone has to lose money for someone to win money or wouldnt the economy crash?

Certainly there are more than a handful of people making money. Otherwise nobody would bother with Forex at all. And, yes, someone has to lose for someone else to win. But, that’s the way with every investment. The stock market is the same. Someone has to lose money on a stock for someone else to make money, and we all know that more than a handful of people make money in the stock market.

Also, keep in mind why the Forex market exists. It’s the market used by countries and world banks to trade their currency. They do not invest billions of their dollars in gambling. There has to be a consistency to their profit and a way to “predict” how the market will move. Of course, they tend to make the market in a sense, but since there are a lot of them, one bank cannot control it alone.

Up until recently only those with some substantial money could get involved and trade with these banks. Now, we small investors can get in on the action, too, and there are many of us making good money at it on a regular basis.

If this is more Luck then Skill, I wish all who read this in it’s entirety the Best of Luck! :slight_smile:

Again, read my comments above.

If you think Forex is pure luck, then you won’t be going near the stock market, commodity futures, or real estate investing.

For that matter, any business venture is a risk, right? If it wasn’t, then banks would be bending over backwards to loan money to new businesses. Of course, we know that they hesitate to do that, requiring massive amounts of paperwork to try and “predict” the future profitability of that business before putting any of their own money into it.

When I first became interested in the Forex market, I read everything I could find and explored almost every forum around. The information overload almost caused me to forget Forex trading, until I found a system that worked. Once that happened, and I started making money consistently, then everything came together and I was able to start applying what I learned to my trading. It all made sense, then, because the stress of trying to organize all that information was relieved.

If you’re interested, PM me and I’ll give you the link for the forum run by the man whose system I use (I don’t think it’s right to post a link to another forum in here). The system produces consistent profits and, yes, they can be well over 10% a week. It depends on several factors, including the amount of money you have to start with, money management techniques, and your personal discipline to follow the “rules” and learn to interpret the “signs”. He provides a lot of help for newbies, too.

Talk to you soon.

Terry

Hey Terry, appricate the response.

It’s not that I want this to be a Pipe Dream, I would sacrafice endless hours to learn to be proffitable in this market it’s just the only thing consistant in my readings are the mixed views of Forex. I am not here because I think its a scam, the only way you can get scammed is by not putting effort into your research which is what this post is all about really. I just want it to be known that I am not saying Forex is a scam in any way. I am just trying to learn as much about it as I can, which is being rather difficult due to all of the garbage people post/advertise - theres an add at the top of this page “Trade Forex with 100% Accuracy” these types of things set people up for failure, I know this site has to advertise but come on, “the beginner’s guide to forex trading” should not allow such distractions, promote a learning tool or some literature.

Will PM you later I am interested in the forums you mentioned, again I appriciate the response. I am not trying to discourage the readers in any way, if anything this thread should encourage readers to do proper research before diving in, which is what babypips is all about. :slight_smile:

Muck…

I think if you actually click on the banner ad of “100% accurate forex trading”, you will see it ISN’T an advertisement at all. ;o)

It is just a one liner joke so to speak, tells you not to fall for traps like outrageous ads promising you the moon.

And yes I did click on it… ;o)
But to my defense, I’ve clicked on about everything in this site. hehe

Think the only ads I’ve seen on Babypips have just been Broker’s Ads. Trying to get you to come try their demo’s and start learning to trade. Which is fine I suppose, keeps noobs from finding themselves in bucketshops. ;o)

Or actually find themselves back in a circle at the ultra cool website of secretpips.com ;oO omg spam ;o)

Ah okay makes me feel better lol :slight_smile: I cant get the page to load but atleast they dont advertise crap, thanks for clearing that up, was just irritated that they are nice enough to explain this isnt a way to get rich quick and it isnt easy in their school but having ad’s counterdicting it seems backwards. Glad they don’t really do that :slight_smile: thx for the response.

Hi Muck - I think in2blues response is one of the most thoughtful and insightful I have read. I agree entirely with what he/she and Kangi have said in their posts. I have been trading this market for 3 years and also read everything, did a full blown diploma on technical analysis and found some excellent mentors. You should check out in2blues recommendation but if it doesnt suit then keep looking. This is a very individual business and I wish you well

Traders who’ve been around the block a time or two will tell you that any given trade is basically all about luck. Things happen while you hold a position that go both for or against you - news, geo-political events, etc. The overall objective in any long-term trading effort is to put the odds in your favor on a consistent basis and let the law of large numbers work to grow your account. That’s the skill part. It’s like poker. If you play enough hands, the best player at the table is going to end up with all the money.

The idea of a random or coin toss system actually has less to do with money management and most to do with the exit strategy employed. It’s main point is to show that how you get out of a trade is at least as important as how you get into it.

As for why rich folks aren’t putting all their money in forex, the answer is quite simple. They have better alternatives. The more money you have to put to work the better the choices become. I work with a guy who made a lot of money in his investment bank days and also manages some other money as well. The investment vehicles he’s mentioned have been quite amazing. Like principle protected notes with really significant upside potential. Not to mention direct business investments, high level hedge funds, and all kinds of other stuff.

The thoughts behind “rich people” investing in forex was mostly derived from the people claiming incredible returns on their trades, 10% a week is obsurd compared to say a mutual fund averaging 20% a year… in all hoesty I dont know anything, thats why I am here, to learn. I just don’t understand is what I guess I am saying.

(Yes I understand a mutual fund is a very low risk investment but its the only accurate % that I can think of) :slight_smile:

The rule of never risking more then 2% of your capitol, I understand this (again this maybe totally off) but if you can consistantly come out on top couldnt someone with a large bank roll say 2% being 100k, 10% being 10k … yes that would require a huge sum of money to invest with but am I doing the math/thought process wrong? help lol :slight_smile:

Sorry if this is way off its late and im tired not intending to make an excuse for my rodent like IQ :slight_smile:

[U][I]“couldnt someone with a large bank roll say 2% being 100k, 10% being 10k - Muck”[/I][/U]

Account Margin $100,000
Usable Margin $ 2,000 (2% at risk, with using a margin call as the stop loss, so news can’t make you lose more than the 2%) ;oP

Used Margin $98,000 (Deposit)
Leverage Ratio 10

Controlling $980,000

Lots 9.8
Per Pip $ 10
Turn Profit 100

Turn Profit $ 9,800 (10% was profit in your example)
Margin Call $ 2,000 (2% was at risk in your example)

Reward/Risk 4.90:1 (5:1)
True Leverage 9.8:1 (10:1)
ROI 10.00%
ROE 9.8%

Would need 100 pips to turn $9,800 or 9.8% profit, but only 20 pips would bust the trade for $2,000.
For every five bad trades, one decent trade would break back even.

[U][I]“10% a week is obsurd - muck”[/I][/U]

I’m thinking 10% is very achievable in one week. Even using your numbers. ;o)
[U]Potentional[/U] to make $509,600 profit or 509.6% (before taxes) for the year if everything went your way, with 5200 pips. cough… ;o)

Boils down to, is the system your employing going to identify the bottom or top more times than not, since your on a 5:1 R/R. If your system can identify it. You don’t need a big bank roll, you can do this with $1,000 for Account Margin all the %'s stay the same. ;o)

Most people trade in mini/micro accounts in these forums, according to a poll I stumbled apon. I wont ask what your account is because its personal but would you mind sharing your time/experience in the Forex market 1 year - 5 years+? Or atleast if you have traded live yet? I just want to be sure I am not being informed by someone in the same boat as me is all, don’t think I am discrediting you or anything, if I sound like I am I apologize it isnt my intention.

I Have spent over 12 hours reading today and I have came to the conlusion that I am just going to have to see for myself. Not saying your response isnt appriciated because it is very much appriciated, regardless of your experience.

Most of my day was spent reading about the Forex it self, not strategies or anything like that, with the exception of the EMA system here on babypip’s. Any chance you have any experience with it? I am planning on Demoing it this week and probrably several after if it is sucessful. Money management and psychological effects should come easily, I played poker for a living for 6 years but online poker is a Class C felony where I live and I cant play live due to a back injury. The money management and psychological effects are very similiar, if not worse in poker due to the luck to skill percentages, your pushing a small edge over a large number of hands 54% skill 46% luck is whats been said in many studies. No need to argue the similarities in money management and psycholigical issues because anyone who doesnt agree obviously hasnt been sucked out on against a 3 outer on the river (only 3 cards in the deck can beat you) :slight_smile: this doesnt mean I don’t plan on taking every aspect of this seriously. I am starting over again in a completely different system, saposedly theres less luck involved in this then there is poker and I was consistantly proffitable at that so I am confident I can definetly make money in this, if I dedicate myself.

Thanks to all who have influenced my decision to commit to this and see how it goes. I’ve been through babypips school and time to start demoing systems! :slight_smile: Have a good night and thanks again! :smiley:

Muck…

Anyones account size isn’t important to your trading success. ;o) the previous example was using your numbers of a big bank roll assumed you meant $100,000 lot size, when you was talking about $100,000 Account Margin.

I have a few decades in Equities, mere months in Forex. ;o(
Numbers are numbers though. Once you have understanding of the numbers involved on paper, then have to see if the actual movement is even possible to attain it in real world. If so, then have to test systems to try and maxmizing the movement. You can take what I say as grain of salt, since I can be considered a newbie as well. But I feel I have a solid understanding of the math involved in Forex.

Account Margin $1,000
Usable Margin $20 (2% at risk, with using a margin call as the stop loss, so news can’t make you lose more than the 2%) ;oP

Used Margin $980 (Deposit)
Leverage Ratio 10

Controlling $9,800

Lots 9.8
Per Pip $0.10
Turn Profit 100

Turn Profit $ 98.00 (10% was profit in your example)
Margin Call $ 20.00 (2% was at risk in your example)

Reward/Risk 4.90:1 (5:1)
True Leverage 9.8:1 (10:1)
ROI 10.00%
ROE 9.8%

Not saying this is a good or bad money management! just worked out the math in your example, but you can see the account balance didn’t really matter as far as the % was concern if you compare both examples. I personally think the 5:1 is a bit high, think the norm is trying to stay closer to 2:1. Guess boils down to how long do you want to have your money tied up, in any one trade. Or just how often do you want to keep paying the spread for the lower R/R hitting more. Just showed 5:1 cause that was what was in your example of 2% risk and 10% profit, if I read it right.

Don’t really know much about poker think I’ve played it twice in my life…
Bought one lottery ticket thus far… ;o)

From my experience on Babypips, if anyone gives you the wrong numbers or use the wrong words. People will correct the person with a quickness. cough Rhody cough ;o)

Muck,

For the most part, I understand what you’re saying.

I’ve been demoing for about a year and have only recently opened a live account. Most of my demoing time was spent trying to find a system that 1) I felt comfortable with, and 2) made consistent profits. I finally found that system and have begun trading live.

As for the 10% a week, it’s not only doable, but I personally know people who do much more than that. I myself have had trades making 16-17% in a single day. Now, keep in mind, I’m really still a beginner, so the consistency isn’t there yet. Also, I’m finding that trading live is a LOT different than demoing. I didn’t believe that when people told me, but now I see it’s true.

Here is the other forum info I mentioned. Apparently, I can’t send PM’s until I have at least 50 posts, so I was told to post it here.

The forum is called Forex4Noobs and it’s totally free. There are even free videos on various topics. After you register, go to the “Free Systems & Strategies” forum and click the topic “The VFX System”. The first post has a download link for the ebook, which is also free! This is the system I use on a 4 hour chart. It works great, and it works consistently.

And, here’s the best part. The forum owner is available in his chat room daily during the London sessions. He trades live in there and tells us what he’s doing and why, so that we can not only learn to trade profitably, but actually make money while he does. And it’s all free.

This forum, along with BabyPips, are two of the best I’ve found. They give truly useful information and the BS is kept to a minimum.

Hope this all helps. Don’t give up, because Forex is a great way to make a living and I’m looking forward to doing it full-time.

Terry

In2Blues

Yeah that is pretty much what I was getting at showing Muck his own numbers. That to me it looks doable, even at 5:1.

Was thinking after I posted it.

If you had one good trade +100 pips, then one bad trade -20 pips = +80 pips or 2 bad trades -40 pips, 2 good trade +200 pips, 4 bad trades -80 = +80 pips

In this scenerio you wouldnt have to stay at the 5:1 since you might only have a two days left in the week, Could possibly adjust the trade so your only dealing with a 20 pip up or down to speed up the reward since only have two days.

Three days sitting with +80 pips = $78.40 need $19.60 / 20 pips to go to achieve the 10% a week of 100 pips / $98.00

Could just go with leaving everything the same in the trade but take profit would be 20 pips for the $19.60 to finish off the week. Still same 2% risk at $20.00, Same Leverage of 10, mainly just cranking down the Reward of 5:1 down to a 1:1 ROI 2.00% ROE 1.96% ;o)

Just if that 10% a week, was the main goal ;o)

My thoughts on it anyways. ;oP

Thanks for the link, and the insights. Sorry to waste both of your time on my scepicism. (<–Spelling wrong I think :P) I am gunna do some research in systems and start demoing this week, thanks again for all the support and I hope to hear from you on later questions :slight_smile:

http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-daytrading/2138-2-roi-daily-forex-market.html

Maybe check out the above thread which seems like a very experienced forex trader from his claims, which are just claims so he could be the equivilent to a 12 year old making random guesses or flipping coins but I don’t think he is. He says 2% daily/10% a week is only what the elite traders can maintain only about 5% are capable of doing this over time.

I have given up on trying to figure out the real, well [B]realistic[/B] potential and I am just going to give it a shot demoing and see how it goes, just somthing you might look into.

Thanks again.

Muck…

You Didn’t waste my time… ;o)
Was running the numbers to really see how crazy it looked on paper.

I think it is possible, would it hold over time… Man unless I see someone really doing it with weeks of data over different years. Would have to say highly unlikely but nothing is in the realm of impossibilities.

Think it would have to rely on different systems, range bound systems and trend based systems would have to be used. I don’t think there is any one system that spans everything. ;o)

As for that 2% ROI thread, sometimes I wonder where people get their data from. 1% of the elite traders can obtain 2% a day. I mean where does this kinda data come from is what I wonder, a broker? a bank?

Anyways wish you the best… Hopefully we all figure this shabang out.
kangi