Good Morning,
Oh man - did I have a week - last night was the first night’s sleep I have had for nearly eight days. Gold!!!
Anyway - pipgod - I cannot email you because I do not know your email address and like I said - I cannot send PM’s because it keeps telling me that it is not set up in my profile BUT IT IS. So I don’t know what from here but I would really like to see your plan out of interest sake. The email address that I provided does work - I use it for all my subscriptions on various websites and I’m getting the messages. Please try again.
Further to the above I want to thank everyone for their contributions.
I misunderstood the 1% rule - although - even although I was wrong about it - based on the new information contained in this thread - I would not be down the pan again.
I will be sure to use the correct stop loss calculations and the correct use of the rule form next week after I have thrown some more $$$ into the pit.
I have come to some conclusions and, once again, learned some valuable lessons in this past week. I’m going to share them here:
[B]You do not know better than the mentors on this forum.[/B]
I NEVER used stop losses. Everyone says to use them. Use them. Don’t think you can hang onto a trade until it turns a profit. Yes - it may in the future - but are you willing to run the risk that because of one single trade - you may lose everything in your account and pay loads on interest in the interim. Take the loss - at least you will live to fight another day. USE STOP LOSSES!
[B]Trust the graphs and indicators - they are right 90% of the time[/B]
This past week has taught me something (not that I did not already know it but once again I thought I was knew better). Last week - the Daily and Four Hours Charts and Parabolic SAR and MACD were telling me that Gold was going down. Not one, but at least four to six people were interviewed on Bloomberg that had varying degrees of interest in the price of Gold. Every single one of them said that Gold would go to $700.00 USD an ounce - in contradiction of my indicators. What did I do - ignore my indicators - and bought Gold. Had I either stayed out of the market - or bought in the direction of my indicators - I would have made a fortune by now. Instead - my account is clear again - this time - to $8 000.00 USD! We are now on nearly $18 000.00 USD in a matter of six to eight weeks. At one point in the last two weeks - I had ‘made’ $1 200.00 USD - by using Jame’s system(s), VanessaFX, and by making a few trades based on my own charts and indicators. The moment I stepped away from these methods and made a decision based on other peoples opinions - well - here I am again. TRUST THE GRAPHS AND INDICATORS.
[B]The advice of analysts in the media[/B]
I no longer have Bloomberg or CNBC in my office. These analysts (as had been said on this forum in response to one of my previous posts) may have a long term idea of where things are headed - but then again - if you had a look at your own graphs and indicators - you know just as much as them - believe it or not. Yes - Gold will go to $700.00 USD per ounce - and beyond. I don’t need an analyst to tell me that - my weekly and monthly graphs - as well as MACD and Parabolic SAR - are telling me that this will happen - just not today - just not this week - and even if it does - the gains to made in the long term - far outweigh the little bit of profit you may make in a day or a week. The four hour and smaller time frames were telling me that it was going down - and it has - big time. Whether these analysts use the power of the media to manipulate the markets - I do not know - and probably will never know - but they cannot manipulate the information what is being given to me in black and white (or in my case blue and red) by my trading system.
[B]Stop hunting - not just by your dealer - but by the market itself[/B]
This does happen - without a doubt - except - this time - with Gold - just on a scale that you would never see on intraday trading. In this instance - while sitting here watching parts of my financial life going up in smoke (or down in Gold as the case may be) I spent much time reading various reports, looking at futures chat forums, etc. etc. The statistics showed that the amount of limit orders for long positions on Gold by far outweighed the number of limit orders for short positions globally (from various sources including US Government stats and other places like Gold exchanges etc. etc.). So what happened? Gold went up - caught all of those longs and then plummeted - and even as it was going down - it still moved up now and then - just to make ensure that any new longs were taken down as well. This is not a conspiracy theory or anything like that. It is just the way people and the market work - the big players - that is why they are the big players. I corresponded with someone who was called by his broker hours before the price plummeted and he was told to liquidate his longs and go short - even to the point where the actual positions for shorts were given within to him within a $1.00 or so. Admittedly this is a forex pro (I can’t imagine GCI phoning me to tell me to remove my longs because Gold is going down in two hours). The point I am trying to make is there are people in the ‘know’ who do know what is going to happen before it happens. They are not guessing or predicting the market - THEY KNOW. Why do I mention thsi point - BECAUSE IF YOU USE STOP LOSSES AND DON’T GET GREEDY - it does not matter what they do. They can only rape you for a small amount - not clean you out.
[B]You and the type of person that you are is the problem - not the market[/B]
I would be suicidal right now - except for one thing - I know that I am the problem - not the market, not the indicators, not the systems - but me. I hate looking at a loss - and even worse - I cannot bring myself to take that loss - but try to ride it out - until my account can’t take it anymore. This does not - and will never work. Why should knowing this make me fell OK about what has just happened? Well simply because I know that if I trade machanically and not emotionally the system does work and there is still hope.
[B]Hedging positions[/B]
Hedging can and does work BUT only in a ranging market. Never hedge to protect your margin - this does not and will never work. There can be no more a soul destroying moment that watching yourself ‘make’ $6 000.00 USD on your shorts within a day or two - but know that you will never be able to touch that money - because you have longs that are making a $6 000.00 USD loss. I still believe that with there is (mathematically) a system or algorithm that could be worked out to make this situation workable - but I have not found it yet - and until I do - never will I make this mistake again. And - once gain - this would not be a problem is you stuck to the rules and used stop losses (already mentioned above). Put it this way - last Friday when I bought Gold - within two or three hours - all of those positions were showing a profit - but - because of all of the things that I have mentioned above - I did not have any stop losses set, Gold WAS going to go to $700.00 USD an ounce, so - I left them open. By the next morning - these positions had nearly liquidated my account - so I hedged them in case things got worse - and spent the whole day yesterday trying every trick that my brain could come up with - to close them out - nothing worked - the only person that made money out of my tricks was my broker. All I managed to accomplish by hedging for this reason - was to delay the inevitable.
[B]Brokers that take credit cards[/B]
I am surprised that this has not been mentioned on any thread that I have seen here or anywhere else. DO NOT open an account with a broker that takes credit cards. I know that this convenient BUT think about this: I cannot tell you how many time in the last two months I have had open positions - they were doing well - so I thought - well - put some more money in the pot while the going is good. Most of these times I have just transferred money there and then to my broker - opened more positions - and been wrong. I can’t help myself but feel that even if I lost everything that day or night - it would have been limited to what was in my account - and I would have had to walk away - cool off - and at very least - wait until the next day to go down to my bank and effect a wire transfer. By that time the whole market would have changed - and you could start again - afresh - and with a whole new take on the thing. Being able to just transfer money immediately is not the plus that you may think it is. Once again - if you stick to the ‘mechanical’ rules - this would not be necessary - but we are human (at least I know I am) and have not yet developed that ‘mechanical’ skill that is required to be a successful trader (but you’d be surprised just how close I am now)! It has surprised me how a clever person like me (yes - this does not make me stupid) and who has been around for such a long time - has tried to apply human logic and emotions to an inanimate object like the market.
[B]Don’t watch[/B]
Don’t open a position and then sit and watch it. Have a good look at the situation i.e. your graphs and indictors, open a position based on these, set your stop loss, and walk away. I cannot tell you how many times (particularly with James’ EUR/USD system) I have opened a position (with no stop loss of course) and watched it start going against me and then closed it. It it does not IMMEDIATELY start moving in my favour - I close it - and make a loss. I can tell you that everytime I have opened a position and then become distracted by something else or had to attend to something else the position has ended in a profit situation. One time in the past two months I opened a postion (I forget on what) and then forgot about it (it was a Friday). When I looked again the next Tuesday - I had made about $800.00 USD and it was just sitting there waiting for me to claim it. But I looked at the graph for the preceding days and it was going against me - only slightly mind you - for quite a while after opening it. I know that had I been sitting there watching it - I would have closed it - and taken a loss - instead of actually making some $$$. Now this might be a problem for some of you because (and this is already mentioned in the Babypips School) I am one of those people who feels that if I am not sitting in front of my platform all day every day then I am not working. Once again - I suppose this the type of personality that I have - but it has to change. The above only does not apply to a ‘scalper’. Put it this way - if you have already mastered the ‘mechanical’ technique of trading then by all means - sit and watch - but if you don’t trust the system and yourself - then don’t watch - you have done all you can when opening that positions wisely - now it is up to the market.
[B]Conclusion[/B]
I know that there are newbies that will read the above and do just the opposite. How do I know? Because I am not giving you any information above that others have not given me in other threads on this forum. I thought I was special. How do those people know me? How can they give me advice - they don’t know me, my personality, or my trading style? I chose to ignore them - and - unless you have the money to burn that I have (had) - even then - trade mechanically - and take note of what I have said above - and don’t think you know better - you don’t. Like I said - the market is an inanimate object - you don’t control it - it has no reasoning or emotion - it just is - and if you can understand that - you’ll do alright.
Thanks to everyone who has tried to give me advice and read all of my rantings and ravings. I do appreciate it. Like I said before - I really do want this to work for me and I believe it can if I just follow the the rules.
I know that there are those of you on this forum that will read the above and say ‘well - we told him’. I know that - and you were all right. It is just that I had to really mess up to take heed of your advice. I am hoping, however, that by putting your advice over just in a different and more open fashion - that I will get through to some or the other newbie and save them the anguish and hopefully make them some money. Put it this way - these thoughts are coming from a newbie - not from an expert or ‘old hat’ - so to all the other ‘noobs’ that read this - I am not an expert or an analyst - or anything like that - I am you - I just have a month or two on you - save yourself months and a lot of cash - I am not talking down to you - I am talking to you.
Anyway - I will see you all next week - ready for the fight! It is a long weekend here in South Africa and I am going to see Evanescence this afternoon (yes - I am a complex creature - never quite fitted the ‘mould’).
Have a good trading day and a great weekend.
Regards,
Dale.