results so far
today’s trade, sell us30 @ 34688
closed at 110p profit cause it is late and champions league night
today’s trade, sell us30 @ 34134
results so far
It is time for me to reach some conclusions out of my trades so far.
So if I had taken profit at 100p which is 1:1 risk reward, I would be at 0 profit. This means 50% win ratio, not great at all. Even if this went up to 60%, very unlikely, profit would be 400p in 2 months not great either.
If I removed two rules of closing the trade early when it’s late for me and moving my SL to entry, I would also be at 0 profit. This is 33% win ratio. If somehow I manage to bring it up to 40%, doable, then I will have 600p profit which is interesting.
Moving forward, I will take option 2 and see what happens. I will also reduce my trades during choppy conditions.
One final thought, if I did not have this sample how could I have reached such conclusion? Actually any conclusion?
What are the professionals doing? I will search baby pips to seek answer.
i know you mean it literally, and i hope and trust you’ll take my response as offered in that spirit and absolutely not to criticize, which isn’t my intention at all, but you’re about to make a classic mistake, here, and i’m hoping i might help you to avoid it
it absolutely isn’t
you are between 15% and 20% of the way toward “reaching any conclusions”
i can’t tell this from 24 trades, and neither can anyone else, including you
you need at least 5 - 6 times as many trades as you have, to tell
bringing your win-rate from 33% to 40% means increasing it by 21% (of what it was)
bringing it from 50% to 60% means increasing it by 20% (of what it was)
it’s very nearly the same thing
yet you’re saying that one is “very unlikely” and the other is “doable”
you can see, i think, that this can’t really be good reasoning, and that something must be very wrong, somewhere, with the logic?
(and that’s even ignoring the sample-size problem!)
it’s WAY too early to decide that!
the very common, widespread mistake you’re about to make, here, is “changing your plan on the basis of a much-too-early guess before there’s any real statistical evidence with any degree of confidence worth talking about”
you don’t have a sample: you have between 15% and 20% of a sample
and the answer to “how?”, i hope, is "much more slowly and with some confidence and then WITHOUT the risk that you might be abandoning something that works in favor of something that can easily turn out to be worse
it’s what people do almost all the time - they get impatient and judge too quickly, and chop and change what they’re doing on the basis of guesswork, with no underlying mathematical, statistical or probabilistic justification for it … to put it very bluntly, they guess
you deserve better than that!
no offense to anyone, but the conjunction between “professionals” and “babypips” is maybe a tiny bit troubling? it’s a beginners’ forum, you know?
Flamingoproxy good to hear from you. Thanks for your input and we have been through this before.
I take under serious consideration every opinion even if it is rude. You spent time and effort to respond to me so how can I not be grateful? I am.
Actually I agree with you regarding the sample size. Probably I am influenced by some previous comments however I will take your advice.
Achieving a 600p profit in 24 trades is easier when going from a 33% to 40% 1:2RR as you only need 2 more winning trades. But probably I did not explain this well. However one can argue that achieving 200p TP is much harder than a 100p profit.
Well you seem to know your stuff and offered a great advice. I assume you are a pro or close and you are here.
buy us30 @ 33407.1
buy us30 @ 32965.86
it hit SL…
After testing a higher time frame for some time, I decided to change the rules of my Strategy.
Of course the number of trades will be less but the profit target will be higher. I estimate approximately 15 trades per month.
So TP is set at 400p, SL at 150p and a trailing SL at 200p.
Let’s see what the the forward testing of this Strategy will reveal.
Sold us 30 @ 34040
So the targets are
Went 165 to the winning direction and revered sharply to hit trailing SL.