GBPJPY
GBPCHF
GBPAUD
Commentary – We had been looking for long standing top to form, but price is right back at the 240.67 high from October 15. Given that the rally from 219.30-240.67 is clearly in 3 waves (middle wave is a triangle) and that the decline from 240.67 also ended up as 3 waves, it seems certain that we are working with a large complex correction, maybe a triangle or a flat. Either way, the next level of potential resistance is the 78.6% of 251.10-219.30 at 244.29. Short term support is at 238.48.
Strategy – Stopped out of bearish position
Commentary – Last week, we wrote that “the dominant pattern in this chart is the decline from 2.4963, which is in 3 waves. The subsequent rally from 2.3487-2.4205 is a 5 wave advance, which indicates that the larger trend is up. A rally through 2.4205 exposes the 100% extension of 2.3487-2.4205/2.3789 at 2.4507. The near term picture is bullish as long as price is above 2.3789.” The rally is unfolding as expected so remain bullish.
Strategy – Bullish, move risk to 2.3933 (from 2.3789), targets 2.4507 and 2.4951
Commentary – We wrote last week that “price is well on its way to a new low (beneath 2.2427). Again, we will look to identify the bottom and reversal as this pattern progresses.” The GBPAUD has registered a new low. Viewing the intraday charts, there is no sign of a bottom in place for wave 5 just yet. A small 5 wave advance offers an opportunity to get bullish for a return to at least 2.3200
Strategy – Flat