Pound Crosses Reverse: Long Term Bearish Implications


[B]Commentary[/B] - We wrote last week that “coming under 245.07 would signal additional bearish potential.” The GBPJPY has plummeted this week and tested the 6/27 low at 243.95. The 55 day SMA is at 244.23 today as well. A bounce from these levels is expected, with former support now resistance at 246.26. However, this could be the beginning of the larger turn that we have been looking for as the pair has broken below the last 4 weeks? lows as well as the support line drawn off of the March and June lows.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Bearish against 251.10, target below 221.05

[B]Commentary[/B] - The GBPCHF surged through the 2.4757 January high and has reversed over 200 pips since making a high at 2.4963. The long term structure indicates that this could be a major turning point. The 61.8% of 2.7319-2.0928 is at 2.4778 and the rally from 2.0928 is a 3 wave correction. We are expecting a decline to at least 2.3288 over the coming months. Near term bearish target is at 2.4308.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Bearish against 2.4963, target below 2.3288

[B]Commentary[/B] - After breaking down today, the GBPAUD has clawed its way back. We find the choppy decline from 2.3911 disconcerting. Choppy declines usually give way to sharp reversals higher. In this case, a sharp rally would most likely be wave c in a flat correction that began at 2.3287. We would expect it to end close to 2.3911. Our confidence in our count for this pair is not high right now.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Move to flat (previously bearish)