Predicting the next candlestick direction

I agree, which is why FX is a challenge. With no float or trade volumes that make any sense, to us retail traders, the rules kind of dont apply. My point I guess, is that even in a situation with green after green after green candle, the next one might always be red. Yes, there might be 3-4-5 greens for every red, but the chance that the next is red is always there. And then it might be 2 reds, 3 reds. It is not like flipping a coin, as there are too many factors impacting, but from a single traders perspective, the next candle can always be green or red.

The next candle in an uptrend has a 55% probability of being green. This is a basis from which to make a profit.

There is a system on youtube whereby you look for a 3 bar swing high or low, and there is an 80% chance that the 4th bar will take out third bar’s high or low (depending on if swing high or low) following the swing direction.


Sounds really interesting! Have you by any chance got a link to it, please?

It is ICT but you wouldn’t have to use ICT necessarily. Perhaps a 62% fib retracement on prior day’s bar could be suitable depending on the next day’s opening price. This would also keep stops smaller.

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