I agree, which is why FX is a challenge. With no float or trade volumes that make any sense, to us retail traders, the rules kind of dont apply. My point I guess, is that even in a situation with green after green after green candle, the next one might always be red. Yes, there might be 3-4-5 greens for every red, but the chance that the next is red is always there. And then it might be 2 reds, 3 reds. It is not like flipping a coin, as there are too many factors impacting, but from a single traders perspective, the next candle can always be green or red.
The next candle in an uptrend has a 55% probability of being green. This is a basis from which to make a profit.
There is a system on youtube whereby you look for a 3 bar swing high or low, and there is an 80% chance that the 4th bar will take out third bar’s high or low (depending on if swing high or low) following the swing direction.
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Sounds really interesting! Have you by any chance got a link to it, please?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUB29c6H_I8&ab_channel=FaizSMC
It is ICT but you wouldn’t have to use ICT necessarily. Perhaps a 62% fib retracement on prior day’s bar could be suitable depending on the next day’s opening price. This would also keep stops smaller.
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