EURAUD
EURCAD
EURNZD
[B]
Commentary[/B] – The falling trend channel in EURAUD has been maintained for yet another week. After the pair slipped below 1.5885 at the end of last week, it quickly found a bottom at the beginning of this week at 1.5640 and went on to consolidation through Friday. The short-term, chop from the Monday clearly puts in for a modest rising trend; but the larger downsloping channel will likely overwhelm this small setup. A break below 1.5640 would likely target 1.5476 and price action could push a little further before a large change in trend is found.
[B]Strategy[/B] – Short-term bearish against 1.5883 with a target of 1.5476. Long-term, a bullish trade could be considered on a confirmed change in trend with a target of 1.6395.
[B]Commentary[/B] – EURCAD is wading into untested waters. The historical charts on the young euro, have led to one large technical formation in EURCAD. A monthly or weekly chart shows a considerable rising trend beginning in October of 2000. This could be the rising node in a large wedge that will need to find a resolution eventually. On Friday, spot pushed below 1.38 and test the rising trend, but we would need a considerably greater berth between the technical and price action to really confirm a break. On the other hand, this trendline could turn out to be a neckline on a head-and-shoulders formation going back to the beginning of 2006.
[B]Strategy[/B] – Flat until a break lower or bounce is confirmed.
[B]Commentary[/B] – Bearish momentum in EURNZD was curbed for almost a week until the floor at 1.8350 gave out on Friday. As Jamie pointed out last week, the 61.8% fib of the 7/25 to 9/10 bull wave around 1.8243 may act as a short-term support level; however, this is a minor technical in a bigger trend that will likely be swept up with the tide. Bears will likely target the swing low down at 1.7025 as a long-term target
[B]Strategy[/B] – Bearish against 1.8652 with an initial target of 1.7782.
