had a quick glance at the NJ and im no expert on this pair…but from my method of analysis it looks to me like it may be ready for an upmove…I see it as Bullish.
as for E/N…i would not yet take this trade just yet…just because it is in a range…has been for past 9 days.
but nice for pointing it out…as if the break of the range is an upmove …then we are looking at possible trend change and will have caught it at the exact low point.
Hi Evermore, l have been pondering this set up (NZDJPY)today too…saw it breaking down earlier today on the 4hr and posted that l thought it was a false break, which it turned out to be! BUT l can’t find enough evidence just yet that it has the strength to shoot up ! l find break-outs hard to play despite having put quite a bit of time into studying/monitoring IBs, NR4s and NR7s (narrow range) which some traders trade with great success. They tend to trade them intra-day which isn’t for me. Checking the NZDUSD, as its a heavily correlated pair,makes me inclined to wait - its printed a bullish Pin Bar but its right under very significant resistance,the big psychological number of 00.80.This makes me inclined to wait for a break-out re-test trade on the NZDUSD rather than a break-out trade on the NZDJPY. However, that’s just me and DnB favours a bullish break-out on the NZDJPY and he is most likely right.
Personally l am favouring the EURGBP to break lower after printing an IB+Doji combo today; although its not tucked right into the EMAs the 10 has almost caught up with price and price has previously been respecting the 10 in this downtrend.
That’s my 2p anyway!
Do you use several brokers or just alpari? If you mind…
I just use Alpari Uk. I don’t see the need to use anyone else, especially now they run on NY time. For all the US guys who can’t use Aplari UK I would say FXDD is a good option, everyone I know that uses them don’t have any issues.
In regards to NJ, I know it’s going to explode mostly like bullish since that’s what most of the charts are signalling. But No I am not trading that one, I am long on AU because I find that market is clearly trending upwards. I got in on the Inside bar break a few days ago.
Always look for the market with the best trading conditions to give you that extra edge, if you trade in sideways markets trying to anticipate breakouts & such it will often burn you. NJ is sideways, so I say to myself why trade that when you’ve got other markets which are currently full steam ahead.
looking at this …i am like day trader style…and with this one i would only consider a short at this stage…
maybe mid day tomorrow that could change …but i am bearish on this pair right now.
the trend is right …ts bullish …but i think we are in for retracement…just to clarify.
Lots up upper tails, signaling price wants to go down, but no follow through? I would have liked to have seen something happen by now, especially now it’s moving into an area where you would look for long signals.
I agree. Price was trying to go down, and tried hard this week, but failed, this is another example of the several pin bars thing I mentioned a few posts ago. Price is rejecting a resistance-turned-support. I got in when price wiped out the previous high. Trade looking good so far.
To trade profitably, one must observe and identify one thing properly… current price direction. No “thinking” required. What makes things a bit tricky is your point of reference. Price can “appear” to be going up on one chart and down on another as in trend. A fixed point of reference can lead you astray after a while. Your point of reference needs to be relevant to today, this week, this month, and this year. USDCHF daily chart shows price has moved up. What point of reference makes you “think we are in for a retracement”?
hi evermore …thats great …the multiple pin bar thing is a nice price action signal…hope you made some good pips…plus the pair corrolated very well with the euro.(like dnb said)
i actually went short cable…and then pulled out with about 7 pips as i was tired and dont like to leave my positions on unless i am heavy heavy in the pips…in hindsight i should have waited an hour or so as price was actively moving my way…but i was too tired…
Just two possible trades for me last week. First was a nice big bullish engulfing reversal bar on EURUSD which produced a decent profit BUT l completely missed seeing it…maybe l better monitor less pairs and study fewer deeper!
The second l mentioned on Wednesday was the EURGBP double doji and/or doji IB at a long term low continuation trade.
This one played out ok, hitting my T1 at 1:1 to the very pip - last week a trade missed my T1 by a pip and turned to take me out a BE!! --gotta love FX!!! And the second part is now risk free with the stop at BE.
So not a bad week as 52 pips on EURGBP is the same as 81 pips on EURUSD.
Many thanks to DnB for helping me rediscover IBs as l had started to overlook them in favour of Pin Bars and Outside Bars, yet IBs offer great R:R and are really worth learning how to trade properly.
Trading the news is more for advanced traders imho not newbies BUT as always in trading you can find traders who have great success at it but not too many!
Trading the news is just a whole new ball park. I would say the successful news traders are the ones with economic degrees and really understand how to interpret all the data to position in for long term movements. People who scalp the news are just hoping to catch volatility as the news comes out on the economic calendar.
Two possible counter trend trades…Belt trades or Engulfing Bars plays back to mean value. EURGBP and EURAUD Daily Charts below…possible entry on a 50% ish pullback or perhaps a little less…thoughts please…
l’m monitoring them on the 4hr. They are very strong reversal candles but they are fighting very strong downtrends. If there is good 4hr entry at around 50-61% pullback l may enter especially on the EURAUD and go for 100 pips or something.But l do think caution is the order of the day!