Would you enter into any of these trades or would you wait next week after NFP?
Yes I am looking to enter AUDUSD
Short ? At what level? Or is it long? Why?
It was a short signal, but the NFP release pushed prices back up. The signal is still valid until the highs get broken so we will see what happens next week. It may cave back down again.
Given that Fridayâs close, the close is scraping along the trend line, how will you call this trade see as my 61.8 level is just ahead along with the 1.06 psychological?
Nothing to do but wait and see what happens next week with price action. If the market opens and sells off aggressively then I might short a break of the low. But things are getting pretty choppy now, a lot of rapid up and down movement and it is essentially a counter trend trade. Might be wise to sit this one out.
Iâve been thinking so too but it seems that itâs also overbought in the daily TF. I just hope it shoots down since it was initially having difficulties breaking 1.05 and 1.0525. 1.035 seems yummy at this point.
HI DnB,
Just wanted to ask you about S/R and Trendlines, as they can be very subjective. This is your view of the AUDNZD from your siteâŚ
and you see a possible shorting opportunity and yet if l zoom out, this is what l seeâŚ
a doji right on Support in a possible flat top triangle formation favouring a long opportunity with price possibly moving up to test the flat top again and with a possible break higher on the cards.
l know we are talking about a doji which by definition is an indecision candle and theoretically could go either way and having differing views is what actually creates a market in the first place (!) but l wonder if you could tell me what you see as the weaknesses in my view and thus why you favour going short? Your thinking process would certainly be helpful to me; possibly you are seeing price going back down to test the trendline as it has closed below the 20ema?
Many thanks,
Michael.
The recent moment is down, even though there was a solid uptrend happening there, it has exploded higher into a weekly support level where it heavily sold off and has been down ever since.
I like to think of some trend deaths the same way a star dies. Just before a star dies, it grows very rapidly and then after it has burnt off all itâs fuel it explodes. Same with trending markets, just before a trend ends sometimes you just get this sudden surge of movement then boom.
So this chart has been dieing off ever since and is now closing on the bearish side of itâs mean value and closed below they key support level. So yeah my bias on this one is bearish until something convinces me otherwise.
Thanks for your explanation DnB, l see where you are coming from now.l may look at taking the trade short until the bottom of the triangle too and then re-evaluate.
Thanks again,much appreciated!
If youâre not comfortable with a trade you shouldnât take it. I put up them blog posts for educational purposes not as trading signals, just keep that mind 
ThanksâŚl have had second thoughts as l see that price is sitting on the weekly 50sma and the daily 50 is just below too and given that the trendline isnât too far below that either the R:R isnât convincing me. Also, at an ADR of about 58 pips it seems a very slow moving pair, although of course you could just increase position size to counter that.
Thanks again for your advice!
Hi, everyone
EUR/aud short. Comments please.
Regards.
Good day, been following this thread for some time. I only comment very rarely but I was actually looking at the same trade and then decided against it due to my reason below.
The short looks good on the daily but if you look at the weekly chart one might think there will be a bit of a retracement before another sell off. Might want to be cautious.
l agree about the weekly chart plus there seems to be lots of similar set-ups on lots of pairs tonight.Also there is a RBA Interest Rate announcement coming up tonight too.Thatâs why all the indecision candles.
How about this one on the AUDJPYâŚthere is still the news factor but could be break out of a range, congestion followed by continuation? Thoughts plsâŚ
Price isnât at mean value but we are talking a possible breakout continuation here so we may get 2/3 more long candles before it retraces back to mean.
i take short euraud in london hours,no trades in asia ,due to false breakout.
I think EURNZD has a a more defined signal, itâs larger and has a bearish close to compliment it. There doesnât seem to be any sign of trend exhaustion yet, remember I look for sudden price explosions or increased volatility. These two markets are just smoothly sailing down.
Hi DnB,
I would highly appreciate it if you can kindly expalin your statement into more details (perhapes with chart example), specially the part âsudden price explosions or increased volatilityâ & what do exactly consider as clear signs of trend exhaustion. Thanks a lot.
Wafik
Hi again DnB,
CHF/JPY 4H, PA Pinbar signal to buy
I would like please to get your views on this setup, just to correct me if I am wrong somewhere:
- Daily trend is down. However, the current trend on 4H at the moment is up.
- The pinbar is at end of the swing, with the current trend, & its O/C is within previous bar.
- The pinbar stands exactly at Fibo 50% retracement level.
Thanks in advance for valuable comments.
Wafik
hi wafikjabra
yeah, that looks like a nice signal, price is closing on the bullish side of the mean on the daily chart. So the very recent price moment has been bullish.