Happy new year to all your traders, I hope 2013 was a year that you can reflect on, taught you lessons and helped evolve you as a trader ready to tackle the markets in 2014.
One market I’ve been involved with, actually the only market I’ve been involved with since DEC 2013 is the GBPAUD. When you have beautiful trending conditions like this, how can you not trade it. I’ve been long on an Inside Day breakout and still holding my trade because this trend just continues to show determination to move higher.
The New Year’s Eve candle has closed as a bullish pin bar, communicating that higher prices a likely to develop as the market rejected moves lower into the trend mean. You can see when the market trends perfectly like this, the mean value acts as strong dynamic support and price just floats above it nicely.
Just advising caution trading during the holiday period, as the markets generally stagnate and can ‘spike’ randomly due to low liquidity.
thanks vasude… i understand % risk per trade concept,risk-reward ratio.
Im able to manage good when i have only one trade at a time… the real problem is when i have multiple trades at the same time or i have to place new trade when old trades are open…though i maintain % risk per trade same, still i find something is missing.
eg. if a system gives 10 valid setup per week. do you take all 10 trades or you skip few. if you take all 10 trade , then say 2% risk per trade = 20% risk per week. if you skip few trades, then there is chance that you miss winning trades.
Keep in mined that most of those trades your already have working are already showing a profit. Having said that it really cuts down your % risk so you can handle the 10th trade.
The bullish rejection candle is a good price action indicator that the trend is still intact and something we can anticipate higher prices from. Also note how the mean value has been beautifully acting as the main termination point for counter trend movements in this trends.
So, the first NFP release came out last week and sent shockwaves through the market as the job report was much worse than expected. My USDJPY stop was hit but the AUD and NZD certainly gained a lot of ground from the release and as a result a nice short price action signal developed on the EURNZD.
EURNZD has already aggressively sold off from a weekly resistance level, displaying angry bears in this market, now the market has retraced to test a swing level which did hold as new resistance as higher prices were denied. The Friday candle did close as a bearish rejection candle with a nice bearish close to the body. This area also lines up with the mean value dynamic resistance, creating a nice bearish hot spot in the market for sell signal to develop.
Looking to grab retracement entries on Monday, if the trade works with us and plays out as planned, there is plenty of room for the market to move lower before hitting a weekly support level.
I’ll share with you this setup on the GBPAUD on daily TF , we have here HS pattern at good structure point in weekly chart also engulfing candle which engulf last three days candle and the price rejected three time from the same price with this engulfing candle i think this means the bears willing to control the market ,so in my opinion if we see nice bearish price action here it will be good trade , i appreciate your reply
I’ll share with you this setup on the AUDNZD on Weekly TF , we have here two PB pattern at good structure point in weekly chart the price rejected two time from the same price , also in the daily chart we have
D bottom pattern i think this means the Bulls willing to control the market ,so in my opinion if we see nice bullish price action on the daily chart it will be good trade , i appreciate your reply
A major price action event took place on the AUDUSD today during the Asia session. The market broke down below a major weekly support level that was acting as a major long term containment line for the Aussie. A quick check on the economic calendar tells us the the unemployment figures were disappointing, firing up the Australian Dollar bears.
We are now driving into very fresh lows and the dynamics of the chart are looking very bearish again indeed. As long a price stays underneath the support level as bias will be to the downside. We will be on the lookout for any bearish trading opportunities that form as a price action signal. There is no point just selling now as that would be chasing price, which is something we do not do.
The best place for a short trade to form would be on the underside of the breakout level, as the market test, and confirms it as new resistance. Something like a rejection candle or a breakout trap & reverse trade here would be very inviting to short into. The most important piece of information at the moment is going to be how this daily candle closes.
It’s quite possible that the market will regain strength during the London/New York session and close back above resistance, which will change our stance on the situation completely, but if price remains on the low side of the weekly level then this chart has plenty of open space to move to the downside.
but the AUD and NZD certainly gained a lot of ground from the release and as a result a nice short 
