Price Action Forex

Beginner Questions Candlesticks, Chart Patterns, and Price Action
22

[edited to comply with forum policy]

I can see why.

It’s a “mystery show”, I think.

Half his posts are telling everyone how long he’s been trading and how successful he is, and the other half (usually when he’s been called out on something ridiculous, which happens almost all the time) are saying he’s no expert and not making a living. I don’t doubt that he’s well intentioned, but just can’t make it out at all. :confounded:

Quite apart from Martin, though, the proportion of helpful information and trading chat to sheer nonsense seems to be at an all time low, at the moment.

I don’t really know why you’re still here, Bob. I don’t really know why I am, either.

23

Thank you All, for your valuable time and comments.

Summary of the system:

  1. Price action based and uses monthly and weekly S/R levels
  2. Aims for consistent long term account growth.
  3. Even if the number of lost trades is high / higher than number of profitable trades, as long as the average profitable trades is 2 - 3 times the average lost trade value, the account would continue growing consistently. This needs to be tested further (forward testing) in the next several months / quarters.
  4. In the past 11 months, the system has shown an account growth of about 13% + (with lower risk)
    Eventually I plan to increase the risk to 3 - 5 times. The trades will be posted in real time as they happen (both real time and pending trades).
    When i started using this strategy the account was at around $ 9075 and with realized trades, the account value is now at $ 10,388 and running profit of around $ 141 I. had made some mistakes with EURUSD which resulted in consecutive loss of 10+ trades.
  5. I would like to test see if an account growth of around 40 - 50% in a 12 month period is attainable (around 4% per month). Does this seem reasonable / worth pursuing?

Once again, i greatly appreciate your valuable time and comments.

I am unable to post any links to my statement or upload pdf as i am a new user. So i have converted the statement to an image and uploaded.

The statement below is from a live trading acount:

DetailedStatement.jpg612×4752 1.83 MB

24

If you have a loss % of 45%, then to figure out what the percentage would be for 2 losses in a row you would find the product of 0.45^2, which is 20.25%. So, there is a 20% chance to have two losses in a row.

But to find the probability of 13 losses in a row with a loss rate of 45% you would do the following: 0.45^13. . . . it’s an astronomically small number . . . so small as to be practically impossible. If we took the probability down to just 1% probability that would be only 5 losses in a row.

So yes, there is something very wrong. UNLESS, you are trading multiple instruments at the same time. That is, if you are trading multiple correlated pairs then you very well could have 13 losses in a row, but that would also be a glaring issue also. It would mean that you are not managing risk across correlated pairs correctly.

Anyway, my 2cents.

25

The key is to keep the average winning trade 2 - 3 times the value of average losing trade.

Assume 55% losing trades and 45 % winning trades (Yes - more losing trades than winning trades)

Worst Case Scenario: Average winning trade is 2 times average losing trade

winning trades: 45 * 2 (multiply by 2 ) = 90
losing trades : 55 = 55
Net 45

Best Case Scenario: Average winning trade is 3 times average losing trade

winning trades: 45 * 3 (multiply by 3 ) = 135
losing trades : 55 = 55
Net 80

The net result always points to a scenario where account growth is positive (not explosive but still positive)

Is this calculation to simplistic ?

Thanks for your time and inputs.

26

I do not consider news as the analysis is done on weekly and monthly charts and trades taken on weekly / daily time frames… Those time frames will usually have the “fundamentals” factored in. The stop loss is very high such that the brokers usually cannot take it out with false moves. The stop loss is in place only to help during catastrophic moves (example 1000 to 2000 + pips movement). I had experimented with taking trades on lower time frames (We have to consider news impact when trading on lower time frames) only to burn out - too much screen time and too much noise - not worth it.

27

you’re right. Positive expected value is crucial

28

Because it feels so good when we stop. Hehehehe.

Martin, Luv ya Braugh, but the wrong part was the encouragement for an obviously weird and basically statistical improbability. The numbers just do not add up. Oh, and then followed by an unverified broker statement seals it.

The Great Skeptic VIPER

2 Likes
29

@TradeViper
Nah man, Fair enough, my bad, stupid mistake, i was tired,
ive got a lot going on in my life right now, (i won’t go into it) but it’s not 1 thing that’s bad, it’s a few things all at once.

Haven’t been sleeping much
basically, i looked at it wrong, i had a blonde moment i guess,
MY BAD… Fair enough

i’ll be honest, with everything that is going on, replying to these posts is sort of a relaxation technique to get my mind off stuff

now all i want to do is help out
but Laughing charlie and bob don’t seem to want to drop what happened in the past
i’m trying to avoid them so as to not cause more problems
at the moment, they are my only two issues

i really don’t want to deal with rude people, nor should i have to
and i don’t really have an issue with anyone

but the way i see it is if someone has an issue with me, they should raise it without being rude

i gave bob a chance, he didn’t take it
i then told me , let’s agree to just not talk, he then purposely follows me around on blogs hehe (i mean… yeah… weird or just wanting to continue shit)

anyway, not to raise it up again
but, i’m just saying, i don’t mind people saying i stuffed up
and there would always be a reason why i did , if i did

but rudeness is not appropriate.
i’m not rude to others, so why i should take it

anyway dude,
all good , Me and You are cool as far as i’m concerned
be cool, i gotta go

30

Appreciate your time and comments. Attached is a screenshot of the ongoing trades in the account.

Ongoing_Trades.jpg1871×474 263 KB

Will post any new trades as they develop and are taken in the account. Fellow traders who are interested in following the system /. trades, please try out on a Demo account first until you are comfortable. A very important piece of trading is managing risk.

If you are a beginner level trader, please do not risk more than 0.5 to 1% on a single trade and no more than a total risk of 5% of account on all trades taken in the account.

There will be losing trades but the system aims at minimizing the loss while maximizing the winning trades.

31

bro, lose the tickets from yourself. I care not for you or your opinion and certainly don’t follow you around but you won’t let it go and keep bring up my name.

Why bro, do you have father issues???

I did source the root cause of your frustration but. And it wasn’t because I told a 16yo not to listen to you (I told him not to listen to anyone if you go back). Its because I said I want to kill myself after reading your posts. And guess what - I still do. Go back and read them yourself. You are a right royal pompous jack …

Your post is off topic and has been flagged by the community. Ba hum bug. The commumity is a right royal toss bag and this is why this forum is dying. Martin, build a bridge and get over it.

32

@bob
Mate, why don’t you just leave it alone
are that much of a child that you need to continue name calling

mate, i’m not speaking to you purposely so there is no more CRAP ok
LEAVE IT ALONE

i wasn’t talking to you to begin with , in these captions, i was talking to viper
Nor was i talking shit about you
and you did follow me on that last post, and i left it alone

WHY DON’T YOU?

if you don’t care for me or my opinion, then it’s bloody obvious isn’t it… leave it alone
stay out of my way and i’ll stay out of yours
when you respond to a post, i won’t do anything, i’ll make an effort to purposely stay out of the way

Now. DO YOU THINK YOU’RE ABLE TO DO THE SAME
because i want this CRAP to stop, this is pointless

I have no idea what my father has to do with this, and WHY ARE YOU EVEN BRINGING FAMILY INTO IT.
Do you really want to start CRAP
WHY ???

have i said anything about your family ? NO
Would i ? NO

so what’s your deal mate, you don’t even know me

as or the root cause of my frustration, i’m not Frustrated to begin with

PLAIN AND SIMPLE
you started with that post with the 16 year old kid
NOW… IF I’M WRONG… Clarify it
but facts are facts, i gave the kid advice and you just came in and said DON’T LISTEN TO MARTIN (more or less)

No Respect whatsoever, you just came in mouthing off like some idiot on you tube
so… I’m happy to either fix this or stay out of your way
CAN YOU DO THE SAME ?

because if you can’t
Honestly, i don’t have time for your BS and your childish games and monitoring my posts and putting up little remarks that TECHNICALLY , don’t breach the rules of the site
WE ALL KNOW WHAT YOUR DOING
you know it
i know it
and i’m just saying… I’m happy to let it all go to rest

so… the only question is … Are you prepared to leave it alone so that we can all have a nice experience on this site
IT’S UP TO YOU MATE

No BS, i’m trying to lay this to rest, bu t you just keep pushing it

i didn’t say anything bad about you in those last posts did i ?
i didn’t bad mouth you did i ?
but we both know i could have

so WHAT’S IT GONNA BE MATE ?

33

Honestly mate
i didn’t you see that post
i’m not aware of it.

Why would you want to kill yourself, that’s stupid
and over what ?? a Firetruckin post… Seriously. dont’ be a goose

what have i done to make you want to kill yourself ?

if you want to kill yourself, then , honestly, you have issues
even if it’s not literally killing yourself, the fact that you have an issue with a POST to such a degree, means you have an issue
ok

now, i’m willing to help the issue
we can drop all this is if you like

we can agree on the following

  1. we are allowed to mention each other, although we should probably avoid it, but if we must then we shouldn’t put shit on each other - i think that’s fair

  2. we should probably avoid talking to each other - i think that’s fair

  3. there shouldn’t be any further bullshit or low blows - i think that’s fair

  4. no more flaming or name calling (and this does go against the rules of the site… FYI i have not flagged your [quote="_bob, post:31, topic:124375"]
    You are a right royal pompous jack …
    [/quote]

comment

ok, i didn’t want to be an A…hole
ok

SO HOW ABOUT YOU LET ALL THIS GO…
let me know

34

I am over it
so… if you would just stop replying to things that i say, WE CAN MOVE FOREWARD

35

No you’re not. Stop raising my name in your posts. Its that simple. You’re more than welcome to the forum, the rest of us are over it

36

Good, ok so we have an agreement

but mate Understand this, so IT DOES STOP ok
i will make a consious effort to not bring you up… fair enough

but if someone else brings it up or something similar , you can’t get offended if just comment on it… ok
Just like if someone was to ask you , what happened with that thing with martin, i would have a problem with you mentioning my name, so long as you didn’t talk crap about me
and i won’t talk crap about you

Mentioning someone is mentioning someone, there’s nothing wrong with that
and at times it might be necessary, but it doesn’t mean this needs to start up again… ok

so do me favour
for the sake of the forum continuing normally
i’ve agreed to not mention you in general and not respond to your posts for the sake of the peace
but IF IT HAPPENS at some point that you are mentioned, don’t go off the handle ok,
I"m not going to talk crap about you

but what i, JUST AS AN EXAMPLE
some newbie asks me , martin which testing software do you recommend
and what if i say something like "bob mentioned that birts is good and i’ve tried it and i agree"
there’s nothing wrong with that mate… ok

so do me a favour and don’t freak out if something like that happens… ok
that aside, like i said i’m gonna do my best to refrain from mentioning you
and i would appreciate it if you did the same

so… do we understand each other ?

37

Same old, same old.

And so the revolving door keeps turning :joy:

38

Hi,
Hope you had a wonderful weekend. New week and new opportunities .

Potential Sell opportunity for EURAUD @ 1.56650, Similar sell opportunity for USDCHF @ 0.99350

If entering this place your Stop Loss wide enough so as to avoid retracements and Spikes. Try it out on a DEMO account.

Trade safe and once again place your Stop Loss wide enough. Please do not risk more than 0.5 to 1% on a single trade

Thank You

42

The account continues to grow. Please see attached.

Statement.jpg1051×631 148 KB

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Statement for the last 10 days - Dec 5th to Dec 15th is attached.

Statement_Dec_5th_Dec_15th.jpg1050×625 141 KB