Price Action That Matters For Beginners

Hey beijin, I appreciate the kind comments.

My charts are pretty cool right? They are actually generated through Market Scope 2.0 on Trading Station. It may not look like it because I have modified everything. If you are using FXCM there is a settings screen where you can change the color theme(I use Dark). I also modified the colors of my candles and all of the drawing tools I use.

krugman - Re your response on GBPNZD…Thanks - I get it, the RR would work on smaller timeframe and a 50% retrace entry.

Exactly, even without a retrace you still may be able to land a 1:2 or 1:3 RR which isn’t bad. When trading only daily charts it can be tougher trading in between these S/R levels as the candles are much larger. Going down in timeframe can let you trade these key daily S/R levels but with smaller stops and greater room for profit.

Although my win ratio is rather high I always struggle to get decent RRR even 1:1 is rare to me, maybe I should start going to lower TF to find better entry points

On the daily’s a 1:1 or 1:2 is pretty standard without using a modified stop loss or retracement technique. If they are making you money and have a high success rate then keep on taking them.

Hi, I was just taking a look on your main website at the “current setups” page. The last one you posted was on EUR/USD Pinbar Setup – 7/9/13, looks like you take about on trade per month? Is that right or do you only post a selection of your setups on that site? Just wondering what setups you are monitoring currently? Thanks.

Hi mancamy,

I think you should stick to Krugman’s main thread to get that kind of answer for your question. Here is mostly about learning the basic, and so it’s less hectic.

All in all, Krugman once mentioned that he will only post the best of the best live setup so that people will not get turned off when the live trade fails. There are much more trades Krugman took, but he did not post each and every trade. Remember that Krugman’s focus is an extremely rewarding trade in expense of having riskier trade (say Risk 1 : Reward 20) and lower winning rate overall (say only 20% success rate). Or the way I like to think it: “[B]Higher RRR, lower Win Rate[/B]”.

Hi Krugman,

I just took a brief glimpse on USDJPY D1 and W1, and I’ve noticed something funny:




That look like textbook Pennants for me. Maybe it’s a good time to discuss about Pennants and Flags according to your PA interpretation. What do you think?

Ok, thanks WM

Hey mancamy, I haven’t updated that blog for quite a while. It was kind of a test thing I was doing to see how to lay out a good PA website. I haven’t been updating it because I have the official version of that website that I am getting ready to launch tomorrow, and on it’s own .com, not a wordpress.com. Although most recently my babypips thread have been getting much more attention than my work on the website.

I trade at different frequencies depending on the market. I have gone a week or more without any trades, but I would say I average 1 or 2 trades a week. Has been as high as 10-15 if the market is throwing signals left and right. I have been so busy with other things that I haven’t traded lower TFs for a couple months so my trading has been even less frequent. I have only recently been getting back into the 1 hour and 30 minute timeframes. I do like to post live setups that I take, and just posted one this morning in my other thread. I am not obsessed with posting every trade I take though, for two main reasons. First I don’t force a strict set of rules, so many people following my website have trading styles with low RR setups and high win rates. I tend to look for higher RR setups and because of the extra risk have a lower win rate. I don’t want people watching me win big RR setups and feeling that their trading style is inferior. This can cause people to try and emulate exactly how I trade, and start changing their trading in a way that will hurt their success. Since I am not offering a signal service and only post trades for educational purposes, there really should be no difference whether the trade I posted was a live trade I took or not.

The second reason I don’t is because many traders passing through are looking for high win rate, without paying attention to RR. Win rate is fairly meaningless unless coupled with your RR. If a trader visit and see’s a 30-50% win rate, he may turn right back around and leave, not realizing my account has grown 200% in the last 3 months because of my regular high win rates. Because of the potential confusion I just post my setups when I think they can help me create a good thorough analysis to help traders learn.

BTW that blog looks so bad, lol. I am actually somewhat ashamed of it, I am really looking forward to getting my new site up.

Hey Willy, I don’t have pennants as an approved pattern. And on this thread I only allow the 1-2-3 pattern. The reason I don’t talk pennants is because they have a near random breakout rate, and they have a really high statistical rate of being false breaks and reversing. I wouldn’t trade the pennant as a stand alone pattern, but I would consider trading trading price action signals off the the trend lines they form the pennant and treat it as a standard trend line trade. Also pennant breakout quality gets worse once price passes the 2/3 mark measured from the start of the pennant to its apex. In the examples you shown above they are about 80-90% of the way to the apex of the pennant. Although I think the chances of a break higher is a little more likely, the breakouts may not be very impressive.

But I did notice you mentioned flags, so if you have some to show then post them up in the other thread and we can talk!


I am getting ready to check out for the night but wanting to leave the community here with something to look at. I didn’t see anything of quality for today on the charts so here is one of the currency pairs and key S/R level I am looking for pullbacks to get into the bullish momentum.

I’ve never visited the blog, but it seems like some members already visited it themselves. Kinda like a secret society blog where only very few chosen ones can access it when I think about it. :smiley:

Hello krugman25,
I am a 50 year old Father, Husband, Airline Pilot and newbie Forex enthusiast who is halfway through the BabyPips course, plus doing extra homework on Elliot Waves, Candlesticks and other aspects of Technical Analysis; the more I read about the subject, the more I like it… hence my interest in the Price Action thread (PA for Beginers for now, PA that matters in due course); Best Regards, RavingEagle

Hello there and welcome to this thread

We are all happy campers of Krugman’s teaching methods and I am sure you too will benefit greatly

Let’s help each others become better traders

Hi guys, I’m originally from Venezuela, recently… relocated in Sydney Australia. I’ve became interested in PA signals just 2 or 3 months ago. It’s pretty hard to erase and rewind all the previous indicator background if you know what i mean, but starting to stop the bleeding in my account and growing very slowly, well at least some recovering after so many hits. Not yet fully confidence though maybe because of the previous hit has undermined my patient, but I think I’m starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel, well hope so :slight_smile:

Anyway, very happy to find this threat where we all can learn from each other experience…and hopefully stick to the PA theme

I would like to share my view and hoping to get some comments about it. I’ve noticed my trading problem (some sort of pipsology issue I guess:)) are basically my S/L and my undermined patient. However, the more I witness the whole PA thing working the more committed I am to became the most patient one :slight_smile:

Anyway let’s drop some pics and see what we can learn from foretesting…(if for any reason I shoudn’t because I missed the rule in the ocean of unrelated PA topic chit chat, let me know)

The above IB has not broken yet. However my gut is telling me that before to go forward we might retest the now Support @ 0.8673, the question is price would stop there or it would down i bit further, shall I wait for the IB to be broken 1st then place an order accordingly? This y friend is what have prevent me from being more profitable, so allow me to share this and see what can i learn from you guys.

Thank you very much in advance


Hi Venepips,

that’s a very ambitious TP level you put there. Can you elaborate more why you choose that level as TP? I don’t take any continuation signal trade for now, but I’m also interested to read more of your reasoning here. Please list the Pros and the Cons of this trade, and if you give a rating to this trade using a 5-star system, how many stars will you give for this trade?

Cheers!

Hey Venepips, welcome to the thread! Most of us have tried other non PA trading styles only to lose part or all of our money, and then starting making back our losses after learning PA. I just want to let you know you are in good company and I hope in the not too distance future you can say that you are a better and more successful trader because of what you learned here.

I hope to be seeing you more around the thread, welcome to the community!