There is large bearish pin bar that has formed on the 4 and 6 hour charts. This also signals a potential false break of the inside bar that had formed on the daily. A safer trade would be to see if the daily candle closes bearishly, otherwise the 4 and 6 hour intra day candles are worth considering.
At work so I can’t post the charts, but worth keeping an eye on for daily close.
Hi Dude, been reading your threads and wanted to contribute to the PA community some more. So you will see me here from time to time from now on. :53:
Anyway 2 questions;
Anyway great work here and well done on making FX-men status.
Darth
That blonde chick is my wife, haha. All of the stardom was going to her head so I changed it. Just kidding, she actually didn’t mind although I didn’t want people confused on whether I was the girl in the picture. I don’t really have any specific online material I could direct you to on volume. I used it based on years of reading various articles and seeing it in action during my time trading the NYSE and also Forex. It is a great tool. Actually the pin bar on the EURUSD I mentioned this morning had very little volume on it, also the candlestick pattern it was breaking out of was an inside bar/pin bar combo which has very bullish implications. We only saw volume shoot up when the market strongly rejected lower price movement, with huge volume to back it up. A prudent intra day trader that shorted the pinbar could have used the huge price rejection and volume to get out of the trade early and avoiding losses, or avoiding getting in the trade all together due to insignificant volume behind the pin bar. A good understanding of volume can really improve a traders success.
Just out of interest which indicator(s) do you use to measure volume? Is that on a single broker or is it using some function of the price.
Hey!
Really glad to hear that you are getting great results! I can only speak for myself, but seeing others success in terms of numbers really motivates me to continue since it is a proof of what is possible in this business. So I only encourage sharing and then it’s up to everyone how to use the information. 
Once again, great job on achieving great results!
It’s raw volume that is accessible in FXCM’s marketscope charts. I believe it is also something you can enable on MT4, but I personally have never used MT4 to trade, so I wouldn’t know how to enable it. If you use some other proprietary trading platform you will have to contact your broker on how to enable it. It’s also important to note, volume is on a per broker basis, so volume from broker X may not match broker Y. Obviously the larger the broker, the better the volume from your broker will represent the Forex trading community as a whole.
This is pretty interesting stuff. The blurbs i have seen about tick volume says “Volume is difficult to know becuase the market is de-centralised”. And then goes on to say from tick volume you can work out what the volumes were. Surely this only works on the assumption that there are liquidity transfer algos in fxcm that monitor across multiple other markets thus when each one of those markets moves its reflected in fxcm. Otherwise how are you not just measuring fxcm volumes? Which are useful but it realistically wouldnt include the big institutional markets.
Yeah, dude! good on you. let’s hear it…and then tell us how you do it 
Hi Guys,
A trading psychology question here…(let’s assume it is NY close right now, am dead beat so am having an early night don’t think I’ll make it NY close)…
I was toying with taking a EURUSD long trade that I saw on the 12 hour chart at the NY close last night (4/12). As per analysis in the charts below from my trading journal. However, I was also thinking that if that level did break that would be good RR potential upto the next key level, and entering on a retrace I would still have enough room to book some profit and move to break even as price reaches the first resistance level at 1.3650. (Despite the fact that I have told myself I will only trade the daily charts until I can be consistently profitable).
However, I decided (talked myself out of?) placing the trade because it was heading into key weekly and daily resistance. However, it’s looking pretty good right now (assuming it closes this way at NY close) and that weekly resistance 1.3650 has broken and price has closed above…in which case would now be looking to target 1.3820 level. Psychologically, I’d had a rough day at work yesterday, I had a job interview first thing this morning (!) and haven’t taken a trade for ages because I have been trying to be really disciplined re-writing my trading plan and re-learning my educational materials…
So question is…“Did I make the right decision not to take the trade? Discuss, with reasoning (technical and/or psychological).” haha!..just want to check whether I hesitated or my decision was rationally justified.
Input much appreciated.
Amy 
[QUOTE=“mancamy;575128”]Hi Guys,
A trading psychology question here…(let’s assume it is NY close right now, am dead beat so am having an early night don’t think I’ll make it NY close)…
I was toying with taking a EURUSD long trade that I saw on the 12 hour chart at the NY close last night (4/12). As per analysis in the charts below from my trading journal. However, I was also thinking that if that level did break that would be good RR potential upto the next key level, and entering on a retrace I would still have enough room to book some profit and move to break even as price reaches the first resistance level at 1.3650. (Despite the fact that I have told myself I will only trade the daily charts until I can be consistently profitable).
However, I decided (talked myself out of?) placing the trade because it was heading into key weekly and daily resistance. However, it’s looking pretty good right now (assuming it closes this way at NY close) and that weekly resistance 1.3650 has broken and price has closed above…in which case would now be looking to target 1.3820 level. Psychologically, I’d had a rough day at work yesterday, I had a job interview first thing this morning (!) and haven’t taken a trade for ages because I have been trying to be really disciplined re-writing my trading plan and re-learning my educational materials…
So question is…“Did I make the right decision not to take the trade? Discuss, with reasoning (technical and/or psychological).” haha!..just want to check whether I hesitated or my decision was rationally justified.
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/><img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>
Input much appreciated.
Amy :-)[/QUOTE]
Hey Amy
I’m thinking if you didn’t lose any money, you made the right choice. I’m not really in any position to comment, my trading has really gone down the pan of late and plan to take a break whilst I reeducate myself and go over some trades to see where I’ve gone wrong the last 2 weeks or so. I’m now just 100 pips away from where I started which im not liking. I took two set ups today which even looking back looked good to me on the AUDUSD engulfing bar 4hr (looks perfect to me)and the GBPCAD pin bar (perhaps a little too small) . Ouch what happened to the Aussie? It bit back… I need to get back to discipline!
[QUOTE=“mancamy;575128”]Hi Guys, A trading psychology question here…(let’s assume it is NY close right now, am dead beat so am having an early night don’t think I’ll make it NY close)… I was toying with taking a EURUSD long trade that I saw on the 12 hour chart at the NY close last night (4/12). As per analysis in the charts below from my trading journal. However, I was also thinking that if that level did break that would be good RR potential upto the next key level, and entering on a retrace I would still have enough room to book some profit and move to break even as price reaches the first resistance level at 1.3650. (Despite the fact that I have told myself I will only trade the daily charts until I can be consistently profitable). However, I decided (talked myself out of?) placing the trade because it was heading into key weekly and daily resistance. However, it’s looking pretty good right now (assuming it closes this way at NY close) and that weekly resistance 1.3650 has broken and price has closed above…in which case would now be looking to target 1.3820 level. Psychologically, I’d had a rough day at work yesterday, I had a job interview first thing this morning (!) and haven’t taken a trade for ages because I have been trying to be really disciplined re-writing my trading plan and re-learning my educational materials… So question is…“Did I make the right decision not to take the trade? Discuss, with reasoning (technical and/or psychological).” haha!..just want to check whether I hesitated or my decision was rationally justified. <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/><img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> Input much appreciated. Amy :-)[/QUOTE]
Hey Amy,
I will keep my answer to your questions short and simple and will not go into details about the trade itself.
To answer your last question, yes you made the right decision not to take this trade, but maybe for the wrong reason. You pretty much explain it yourself early in your post why you should not take this trade:
(Despite the fact that I have told myself I will only trade the daily charts until I can be consistently profitable).
You have the best trading psychology advice right there!
Never brake your own rules! Never! If you cannot trust your own decisions or trading plan/rules, there is nothing else left. There won’t be anyone standing behind you when you trade to push you into beeing disciplined. You only have yourself when trading. You are your own boss. During our whole lives we have been used to having parents/teachers and/or a boss who tells us when we are wrong and who directs us into the right direction. But in trading we only have ourselves and we must have the strength to follow our own rules to the fullest!
Trust in the plan and rules you have created yourself. There is a reason you created that particular rule mentioned above. Remind yourself why you did it. I know it’s hard sometimes and i speak from experience, but we can only help each other by reminding one another about this time after time. But we can’t force each other to follow them. Thats something we have to handle ourselves
And please, remind me in the future about everything i just wrote if you can see that i am about to break my rules… 
Hope my answer is useful.
This is for any trader that is struggling right now.
There are a large number of reasons why a trader might be losing. If it is intra day trading go back to just trading the daily’s. If you are struggling with retracement trades, go back to just trading the break. If you are breaking rules, taking poor quality setups, over trading or a number of other problems take a step back and look see if you can identify the problem. It might be one or a number of things. Also keep in mind, when learning a new technique you will almost certainly lose more at first until you really get in tune with the proper way to apply to it your trading. I would suggest demo trading new techniques, methods, time frames until you are ready to apply it to your actual trading. Another common problem is making too many changes too quickly. If you are building up your trading skills, get really good at the foundational principles. That may mean only trading pinbar, on the daily TF and only entering at the break of the pattern. Once you are consistently profitable with that, it is time to grow your skills. If you are not profitable even with the most basic principles of price action trading, piling on a bunch of more techniques and time frames won’t help you any.
I also want to add in that you must let your edge play out. Even losing 5-10 times in a row doesn’t mean anything, you could very well land a 5-10 winning streak immediately afterward. Statistics aren’t even considered unless there are at least around 100 sample, so if you have lost a few times that is just far too small number of trades to come to any educated conclusion to your trading. Often traders risk way to much to ever figure out if they have an edge or not. If you risk so much that you won’t survive 5-10 losses, you will probably never know if your strategy ever really works or not. I am becoming more of a proponent of small risks per trade, somewhere around 1-2% max. This will let you suffer an unusual long streak of losers while letting you stay in the game long enough to let your edge play out and see your long term profitability.
Hey BA, don’t get discouraged. I’ve found whenever I have a rough spell trading, I take a break, go back over what I did, just like you are doing and I’ve always found through this process I make another small break through or alight on a new piece of understanding or more sophisticated perspective that helps me improve and moves me on a step. Am sure you don’t need me to tell you this. You’ve got absolutely the right approach. Well done, mate.
Ha! You are SO right. Thanks for keeping me on the straight and narrow. Just what I needed. I really like hanging out here
Cheers, man.
Back to compiling my filter checklist…
Hey everyone, I just want to let you know I started up a new thread dedicated to some new long term strategies I have been developing called “Castling”. It is for long term traders to can use something called derivative hedging in their Forex trading. There is basically nothing that exists about it so I will be carving to path for it. It will essentially use popular option strategies to hedge your Forex positions and other fun things. This is good for a trader who wants to diversify a bit and hold some longer term positions, or if you just prefer longer term trading. Even if you aren’t digging it, still drop by and show your love!
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/59859-krugmans-forex-castling-strategies.html
Thanks, Aaron - good advice - especially re trade samples/edge. In terms of picking a starting strategy for the daily chart, am thinking of focusing, with trend, on pullbacks to key daily/weekly s/r, entering on a break (or retracement, can’t resist coz I is greedy) and using pin bars, engulfing bars and two bar reversals (the last one coz if you blend the candles it’s really a pinbar). I think that’s rather more than you suggested but since it’s on the daily charts, I reckon I’ll have enough time to manage to focus in this.
So now you all know…shout at me if you see me deviating! Ha!
Potential 2BR forming on the EURGBP weekly charts. We will have to wait an see how the candle closes tomorrow.
And once again, NFP is lying ahead. Guys, it seems like I’m leaving early this week.
Good luck for you guys with open trade. NFP day often turns out to be nasty. Depending on your open position now, you may either be dancing in the moonlight :18:… or banging your head to the wall later this week. :17:
I wouldnt mind if the price action setups that contributed to the profit were included included. It would be a great learning tool.
[QUOTE=“krugman25;575144”]This is for any trader that is struggling right now.
There are a large number of reasons why a trader might be losing. If it is intra day trading go back to just trading the daily’s. If you are struggling with retracement trades, go back to just trading the break. If you are breaking rules, taking poor quality setups, over trading or a number of other problems take a step back and look see if you can identify the problem. It might be one or a number of things. Also keep in mind, when learning a new technique you will almost certainly lose more at first until you really get in tune with the proper way to apply to it your trading. I would suggest demo trading new techniques, methods, time frames until you are ready to apply it to your actual trading. Another common problem is making too many changes too quickly. If you are building up your trading skills, get really good at the foundational principles. That may mean only trading pinbar, on the daily TF and only entering at the break of the pattern. Once you are consistently profitable with that, it is time to grow your skills. If you are not profitable even with the most basic principles of price action trading, piling on a bunch of more techniques and time frames won’t help you any.
I also want to add in that you must let your edge play out. Even losing 5-10 times in a row doesn’t mean anything, you could very well land a 5-10 winning streak immediately afterward. Statistics aren’t even considered unless there are at least around 100 sample, so if you have lost a few times that is just far too small number of trades to come to any educated conclusion to your trading. Often traders risk way to much to ever figure out if they have an edge or not. If you risk so much that you won’t survive 5-10 losses, you will probably never know if your strategy ever really works or not. I am becoming more of a proponent of small risks per trade, somewhere around 1-2% max. This will let you suffer an unusual long streak of losers while letting you stay in the game long enough to let your edge play out and see your long term profitability.[/QUOTE]
Thanks for the great advice Aaron, yes I think I need to go back to basics for now. I made around 400 pip profit in 2 months nice and steadily but have last almost that these past few weeks so I’m doing something very wrong, over trading I think. I have Found this a good learning experience and have already made some improvements to my money management. I plan to steer away from engulfing bars and only trade pin bars for now.
Thanks again
BA
