Well, the first 4 hours of the first day of the week is really the worst. The spread is insane, the gap is omnipresent, and the volume is low. I usually wait several more hours until the market is ‘saner’ to enter.
On the other hand, the last hours of last day of the week is second to the worst. The candle is less reliable than usual and the big players are leaving. I usually leave for weekend when American session begins. Or if I don’t really feel any intraday is worth to take on Friday, I am usually done for the week once I check any good quality Daily setup during Asian session.[/QUOTE]
Hey Willy
What’s your take on still having a trade open (taken from a lower time frame than the dailys) come the weekend but down on pips, do you risk it and leave it open or do you close it down in minus profits?
Area there really people saying this? I mean if 10% is realistic then there practically is no point to trade, rather just invest in some stocks and save yourself from hours&hours that go into trading ( not saying that I mind it :D).
For me I have set myself a goal of 4% a month ( on average), that makes compoundingly(sp?) ~60% profit a year. I think that is somewhat modest but still a very good profit. And as I get better that % should go up aswell.
I know that it is a bit offtopic, but I was just wondering if my thought process about profits is somewhat correct.
Question about weekly candles.
As the candle closes, so does the trading for the week. So when do you set your entry? …when the new week starts or after the bar closes? Because as we know if you set your entry before new week starts, the trade wont trigger until the week starts and price might have shifted somewhat during the weekend
Anyway, engulfing bar seems to work well if you stick to your best gun. Either 1, 2, or 3 doesn’t matter if you have no problem with it. You [B]WILL[/B] have problem if you are inconsistent with your EB strategy, though.
No problem at all, Papagoy. True the price has shifted, but it’s really less of your concern if you’re taking Weekly trade. The gap becomes more and more severe if you take lower tf, but virtually no big deal if you go to Daily tf and beyond. My pending entry on W1 tf is always on the first day of the week.
If that’s the case, I’ll shorten the SL if it’s intraday. I’ll leave it as is if it’s Daily, Weekly, or Monthly tf.
For intraday, my biggest concern is the gap on the first the day of the week. Simply not worth it to keep your intraday trade open during weekend.[/QUOTE]
Thanks wm247
Where do you shorten your SL to and what do you do if it isn’t hit by the end of the day?
Yes true, I have been used to watching up to daily TF, where the price shifts quite a lot ( in comparison to other candles) during the weekend. Weekly and especially monthly it does not make that much of a difference. Thanks for opening my eyes
My senior is a news trader, and his return is around [B]3% - 20% per month.[/B] That sounds realistic for a bloody good speculator.
I’ve also seen great stock investors from my country who can make[B] 60% - 160% return per year.[/B] Heck, one of them has made [B]150,000% return in 14 years.[/B] Warren Buffet, [B]eat your heart out![/B]
When people think about Buffet and his annual return of ‘merely’ [B]20% per year[/B], they forget that:
Buffet is basically investing insane amount of money that makes it difficult to enter and exit the market without affecting THE market too much.There is one thing if you ‘say’ enter a long position with $100, and it’s completely another thing if you ‘say’ enter a long with $100,000,000,000.
Buffet’s main investment is on developed world (the good ol’ USA). You will get much higher return if you have the guts to invest your money in emerging markets (BRIC, Indonesia, Latin America, Africa, etc)… in expense of having higher risks. Hey, that’s part of the game. Higher risk, higher return.
I’ll check any possible minor S/R to shorten my SL, or simply choose the previous candles high or low.
If it isn’t hit by the end of the day, then it’s business as usual in the following week. Let the market do its dirty work, and pray that it goes to my TP level. Some may have different way to tackle it, though.
They say that a running transaction should be monitored but not over-manage.
I know it’s hard to find the balance between over-managing and leave a transaction to its own fate.
I came up with an example of a wrong-managing.
There was a bulish PB on daily EUR CAD. I took it! But after few days three opposite PB has occurred.
I closed my position with a minum loss. But, after that the price has run in my intial direction.
The question is: What would you do if you see that three opposite Pin Bars arise in your way?
The pins would not have worried me as they are small. The BEEB just after would have worried me a bit. The smarter thing to have done would to have been to put the stop below the BEEB. If you are worried about something then ask, would you shorted the pin bars that you stopped out on. 9 times of 10 you wouldnt so let it ride until you see a proper short setup.
I’ll check any possible minor S/R to shorten my SL, or simply choose the previous candles high or low.
If it isn’t hit by the end of the day, then it’s business as usual in the following week. Let the market do its dirty work, and pray that it goes to my TP level. Some may have different way to tackle it, though.[/QUOTE]
Thanks mate,very interesting. My trades have just gone into the positive so may adapt this strategy to close them out in a few hours.
I’ve been re-reading your result, and my curiosity gets the best of me once again. Once again, congratulations for having this very impressive result. You are the man, man!
But here’s the thing:
Having 70+ best of the best trade setup (16/22 Long + 30/49 Short) within 2 months seems too good to be true. I’ve been active in both Krugman’s and Johnathon’s thread, and I really never saw any senior there even came close to that. Even more interesting, you insist that you only exclusively trade Daily tf. You do realize that you’re basically saying that you have the uncanny ability to spot one A+ trade setup or one 4 star or even one 5 star trade setup in Daily tf -without any need to take intraday trade- practically every single day in average?
I’m not accusing you of anything, far from that. I really am interested to learn more from you in how to do that consistently. And we really need to build our portofolio folder of the best of the best trade setup for our references here. Remember my discussion with EternalNewB and Krugman about that? Your trade examples this last 2 months will be a huge boost to our portofolio folder if Krugman approves yours that fits his standard of 4 star and 5 star trade setup.
I don’t know why you say not to pay attention to correlation. That’s a very dangerous attitude when I think about it in more depth.
Say I am confident to risk 3% of my money for every single trade, and I care nothing about correlation at all. Let’s say within a single day I spot several great trade setups in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDDKK, USDHUF, and USDPLN. Since I don’t care about correlation, I enter everything with 3% each. That effectively translates to 18% risk in total as all 6 pairs are highly correlated! Now I’m really really scared at this point when I think about the implication of your strategy…
I hope you’re not offended with my analysis, mate. I just want to make sure I do not get the wrong idea from your results.
This is my take on holiday trading, it is all fair game. If you look at trading Fridays, the problem isn’t so much light volume it is the “last day of the week” mentality. Strategies are changing from breakouts and such to taking profit or hunkering down until the next trading week. This is what makes the price action so uncertain for the Friday. If you look at the volume, Friday volume doesn’t usually go down that much, not enough that it should effect what’s going on in the chart. Then looking at US holidays, if it’s not a US session then you should expect business as usual, even if the volume is a little lighter.
This is my take on holiday trading, it is all fair game. If you look at trading Fridays, the problem isn’t so much light volume it is the “last day of the week” mentality. Strategies are changing from breakouts and such to taking profit or hunkering down until the next trading week. This is what makes the price action so uncertain for the Friday. If you look at the volume, Friday volume doesn’t usually go down that much, not enough that it should effect what’s going on in the chart. Then looking at US holidays, if it’s not a US session then you should expect business as usual, even if the volume is a little lighter.[/QUOTE]
Thanks Aaron, much appreciated. It makes a lot of sense, it will be business as usual for me then up until the real Christmas holidays begin.
I thought I would have to go into the weekend holding a trade but it looks like I won’t have to now. My last open trade for the week just reached TP for 1:2 RR. When price breaks through a key resistance level, the best setups are when price pulls back to that level and finds support on it. If you have large and well defined price action form from these levels, they generally have a high chance of success. This was a retracement entry that let me get in at a 2:1 that would have otherwise been a 1:1 or less from an entry at the break of the candle. We can see that price retraced within the body of the pinbar and began consolidating and compressing. After a few candles it aggressively broke upward. The retracement within the pinbar happens because reversals usually aren’t immediate. It can take hours or days for the supply/demand to shift enough to push price in the direction of the pinbar. The reason the breakouts are usually so aggressive is because a long/short squeeze occurs. Many trades get sucked into a false break. Once supply/demand finally shifts and price moves against these traders, they will start exiting their positions which creates a bigger imbalance between supply/demand and accelerates price.
[QUOTE=“Papagoy;575354”] Area there really people saying this? I mean if 10% is realistic then there practically is no point to trade, rather just invest in some stocks and save yourself from hours&hours that go into trading ( not saying that I mind it :D). For me I have set myself a goal of 4% a month ( on average), that makes compoundingly(sp?) ~60% profit a year. I think that is somewhat modest but still a very good profit. And as I get better that % should go up aswell. I know that it is a bit offtopic, but I was just wondering if my thought process about profits is somewhat correct.[/QUOTE]
I have taken one trade a week for the past 4 weeks and am up 7%. And i only risk 1% per trade. i have also missed a few setups i would have liked to be in due to some traveling ive had to do. Those ended up being winners
With that said, 4% a month is very realistic. I have only taken very high quality setups which has limited the # of trades ive been in. But who needs more than 1 trade a week if your gonna end up with greater than 5% profit for the month
Well done Aaron!! I can’t tell you how gutted I feel at the moment, I actually took this same trade off of the 4hr yesterday:
See that pinbar right where the trend line and RS meet? Well that’s where I took it. Can you believe that I ditched this trade just a few moments before NFP? My thinking was I was slightly in profit, I didn’t want to trade the NFP, I didn’t want to keep a trade open over the weekend, and I also know there is some financial news coming out of Japan this weekend and so did not want to leave a JPY trade…ahhhh man…I feel so sick now, I could have made most of my losses back with this one. Nevermind I am still learning and will take something from this.
