Price Action That Matters

[Diablo1505]

It’s definitely something I would have considered when I was losing lots of pips and who knows may have even entered this one. This is one of the kind of opportunities that I notice I’ve been losing on mainly because its counter trend so I’m now trying to only trade with the trend unless I have a massive PA signal then I will consider entering with half my usual lot size. When we are looking for a trend reversal i think we need a larger PA signal to confirm it.

Thanks for your thought on this BA. Actually half of my profits over the last month come from these kind of setups so they can be traded successfully. I understand that these kind of setups are more risky since you are trading against the trend and therefore i only risk half of the risk i would normally take on a trade with the trend.

But i guess the only way to make sure you do not get hurt by these trades is like you say, only trade massive PA signals or just simply only trade with the trend.

[Diablo1505]

@adamjn

NZDUSD H4 BEEB

I have been waiting on this for a few days now, finally it has reached my level, a downward trend line.

I spotted a Bearish engulfing bar on the H4 chart, here is my analysis on it.

At a solid level
Fully engulfs previous candle
With trend (Down)
Also looks like a head and shoulders with a wonky neckline
High volume on EB also

I entered a little late, actually missed the entry as I have been out, but got in about 5 pips late, so I am not too annoyed.

Tp will be at 0.81145, last major Swing Low

Here is the daily and H4 charts

Opinions more than welcome

H4

Daily

Right now it looks like price is getting rejected both by the downward trend line and the close support level. I would say that a strong warning sign here is that the daily candle did not manage to close underneath the support. And looking at the 4 hour it more looks like a false break.

The question that remains is which one is stronger and will prevail, the trend line or the horizontal support.

Daily

4 hour

[jpw0100]

[QUOTE=“adamjn;577963”]EDIT: BAD SETUP Just noticed a few things, higher volume in the lows, neckline might be supporting price to continue higher, closed out at 2 pips profit. NZDUSD H4 BEEB I have been waiting on this for a few days now, finally it has reached my level, a downward trend line. I spotted a Bearish engulfing bar on the H4 chart, here is my analysis on it. At a solid level Fully engulfs previous candle With trend (Down) Also looks like a head and shoulders with a wonky neckline High volume on EB also I entered a little late, actually missed the entry as I have been out, but got in about 5 pips late, so I am not too annoyed. Tp will be at 0.81145, last major Swing Low Here is the daily and H4 charts Opinions more than welcome H4 <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> Daily <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]

I am in this trade as well. Got close to my SL last night but am currently up 35 pips

[jpw0100]

[QUOTE=“Diablo1505;577971”] Right now it looks like price is getting rejected both by the downward trend line and the close support level. I would say that a strong warning sign here is that the daily candle did not manage to close underneath the support. And looking at the 4 hour it more looks like a false break. The question that remains is which one is stronger and will prevail, the trend line or the horizontal support. Daily <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> 4 hour <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]

This is a good point.

Im still liking this to go lower . A nice pin bar closed a few hrs ago on the daily with high volume. The body of that pin bar also was below the trend line, and in between the .5 and .616 Fib retracement level.

[adamjn]

I am going to guess a break to the up side, but i think I will sit it out, looking at the daily, selling volume seems higher.

[adamjn]

GBPJPY Daily 2 Bar

I don’t really have time to list points about this as it is 1.30am but I will note a few

With trend
Rejecting support
Rejecting Upward trend line

[darthfrancis]

@Diablo1505

Guys, i need your point of view on a trade i’ve been struggling with for 2 days and which has kept me sweating.

The trade is a counter trend trade on the EURCAD, 4 hour. I first saw that price was about to hit the rising top of the uppward channel which collides with a s/r level going back to 2005/2007 since there is no structure recently that could act as support or resistance.

I entered the trade on the 4 hour where we got a nice PA in form of an bearish engulfing bar. Thereafter we got a lot of inside bars indicating a shift in momentum so it looked good. Then price got close to my SL before going south. But once again the bulls took over and pushed price up, bears came in pushed it down forming a pin bar and we continued like that and also got a 2 bar reversal at the same s/r level. So i saw 3 bearish PA signals at the same level confirming my position and trade idea. But a few hours ago i got stopped out as the bulls once again pushed up the price.

Also on the 1 hour chart we can see that price respects the trend line pretty good.

My question to you. Is this something someone of you ever would have considered taking or is it just me getting obsessed with an trade idea?

Any comment and feedback is appreciated!

When price keeps giving your PA signals at a S/R area as it does in your chart it looks like that bears are playing defense protecting the S/R unit the offense have worked out there attack plan. I may of taken this but only on the BEEB which proved a little small but it could of gone either way and still might go south.

And if your getting obsessed with an idea would you not be more blinded to the warning signs as you are more focused on the pro’s?

Obessions leads to …
gollum.bmp (148 KB)

Darth

[FaRS]

@Diablo1505

Guys, i need your point of view on a trade i’ve been struggling with for 2 days and which has kept me sweating.

The trade is a counter trend trade on the EURCAD, 4 hour. I first saw that price was about to hit the rising top of the uppward channel which collides with a s/r level going back to 2005/2007 since there is no structure recently that could act as support or resistance.

I entered the trade on the 4 hour where we got a nice PA in form of an bearish engulfing bar. Thereafter we got a lot of inside bars indicating a shift in momentum so it looked good. Then price got close to my SL before going south. But once again the bulls took over and pushed price up, bears came in pushed it down forming a pin bar and we continued like that and also got a 2 bar reversal at the same s/r level. So i saw 3 bearish PA signals at the same level confirming my position and trade idea. But a few hours ago i got stopped out as the bulls once again pushed up the price.

Also on the 1 hour chart we can see that price respects the trend line pretty good.

My question to you. Is this something someone of you ever would have considered taking or is it just me getting obsessed with an trade idea?

Any comment and feedback is appreciated!

I think you got obsessed with the trade idea. I mean, to me the bar is just as regular as all the previous bars, it doesn’t stick out, it isn’t large enough and additional it has formed against the recent uptrend. If I was to take a trade against the trend, then I wanted to be damn sure that the odds were on my side meaning that the bar should be extra large (larger than those I take with the trend) and formed at a strong supply/demand level.

Richard

[darthfrancis]

<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

New trade pb on the 4h gbpcad.

formed at sweet level of 1.7400 after price has broken past it and now retesting it. Going down pound!

Darth

Just had my tp hit.with a RR of 2.5:1. Great way to finishing the week.

Have a great weekend guys and girls

Darth

[MANKATHA]

nice thread … subscribing

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

When you think things can’t get any worse…Benedict is watching X Factor live…my ears are bleeding…I’m sure the national suicide rate must go up on these nights. That awful Sherzinger woman is enough to drive anyone to an early grave…USDians please reclaim her ASAP

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

If your ever going though a bad time…just remind yourself that your not Louis Walsh and you’ll feel much better.

[FaRS]

Hello errrbody,

I’m going to have a crack at this on Monday open.

EUR/CAD D1

It’s a counter trend trade, but the level (@1.46000) is very decent at which this BEEB (blended last 2 candles) has formed showing that price is rejecting it.

[jpw0100]

A question about volume. Hopefully Krugman can answer this.

Im looking at the USD/CHF.

Looking at volume on the daily, the candlestick for Thursday (Wednesday 5pm NY to Thursday 5pm NY) had a volume of about 260,000. The next daily candlestick (the last one of the week) has a volume of 123,000

If you go to the 8hr charts, you get…
From Wednesday 5pm NY to Thursday 5pm NY --> volumes of 20k, 55k, and 60k = approximately 135,000. Not the 260,000 listed on the daily.

This confuses me because volumeof the PA signal compared to the previous candlestick volume plays a role in my trading. Looking on the daily I kind of want to stay away because volume is more than half the size of the previous candle stick volume. If I am looking on the 8hr charts, volume is pretty average for the previous candlestick volumes.

Anyone know what’s goin on here?

[Diablo1505]

[QUOTE=“FaRS;578618”]Hello errrbody, I’m going to have a crack at this on Monday open. EUR/CAD D1 <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> It’s a counter trend trade, but the level (@1.46000) is very decent at which this BEEB (blended last 2 candles) has formed showing that price is rejecting it.[/QUOTE]

Good luck mate! Thats the trade idea i’ve struggled with all week! You and darth were right about me gotten obsessed with the trade. But maybe my prediction of price going lower was not so bad after all. The PA we got now on the daily is bigger and beeing on a higher TF makes it more reliable than the one i traded on the 4 hour chart!

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

[QUOTE=“FaRS;578618”]Hello errrbody,

I’m going to have a crack at this on Monday open.

EUR/CAD D1
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

It’s a counter trend trade, but the level (@1.46000) is very decent at which this BEEB (blended last 2 candles) has formed showing that price is rejecting it.[/QUOTE]

Hey Richard

It’s a bit too risky for me at the moment but I will be interested to see how it plays out.

[Henry9986]

Sorry Aaron that this is history.

I read this part <[I]if price does pull poke out the bottom of the EB and then pulls back half way, you are going to get stoppe out of a potentially good trade[/I].> in post#1770 several times. If you used OCO you wld [B]have entered[/B] the trade when price went below the bottom of the EB [B]before[/B] pulling back half way. Am I right? If so, you wld have been stopped out if you put a modified SL there. Wld you care to enlighten?

All wld be well & pretty if (i) you chose to enter on retracement only [B]without [/B]another pending order at the bottom of the EB under OCO, or (ii) price pulled back first [B]before [/B]breaking the bottom of the EB. Am I right?

Thx. /Henry

P/S: you see, I’m really poring over past posts

I don’t believe I said a modified stop loss entry was greater risk than a retracement entry. I believe I said the risk was still high, as in if price does pull poke out the bottom of the EB and then pulls back half way, you are going to get stoppe out of a potentially good trade. Where your stop loss is placed, people like me have our entries in the same area, so you are getting stopped out of the trade just as I am getting into the trade. Both entries techniques have a higher risk, but the retracement generally offers a greater reward for the risk being taken, and gets your stop loss in a more secure area.

[adamjn]

Hey guys,

Looking at the JPY pairs, I see what could be a few setups, the best looking one imo is EJ H6.

Anyone have any opinions on it?

My analysis.

On current trend line
With trend - Strong uptrend
Over 1:1 Risk:Reward - 1st TP 142.740
Solid 2 bar reversal
Higher highs being created, and higher lows

Opinions and criticism very welcome

Cheers,
Adam

[krugman25]

Sorry Aaron that this is history.

I read this part <[I]if price does pull poke out the bottom of the EB and then pulls back half way, you are going to get stoppe out of a potentially good trade[/I].> in post#1770 several times. If you used OCO you wld [B]have entered[/B] the trade when price went below the bottom of the EB [B]before[/B] pulling back half way. Am I right? If so, you wld have been stopped out if you put a modified SL there. Wld you care to enlighten?

All wld be well & pretty if (i) you chose to enter on retracement only [B]without [/B]another pending order at the bottom of the EB under OCO, or (ii) price pulled back first [B]before [/B]breaking the bottom of the EB. Am I right?

Thx. /Henry

P/S: you see, I’m really poring over past posts

I don’t quite remember the whole context of this but if you have an OCO order, the order that is set at the break doesn’t need to have a modified stop loss. You can set an OCO and have both orders stop loss at the other end of the candle.

I think the main point of that post was that both a modified SL entry and the break and a retracement entry at the break both have higher risk involved except the retracement will ultimately give you more profit.

[krugman25]

nice thread … subscribing

Thanks for subscribing! Make sure you drop by frequently and ask question/post charts are just shoot the breeze with us =D

Regards,
Aaron K.