Hello all,
I’m in a few trades on my daily charts and I’m aware that the US NFP stats will be out tomorrow. Also, the Can BOC Rate Decision will be out. Both will surely impact the market and I was wondering if I should close out my trades prior to the news releases. Can someone please advise?
Thanks.
David
Here is another failure of a pin bar on UJ. You can see the previous bar has very high momentum and the pin bar is very small, so a break of the high would signal a buy.
Here is also CHFJPY. I took it on the break of the IB on the daily which hit both profit targets.
Please check out my post from this Monday where I posted the high risk events for this week. I wrote about deciding to keep trades open or close trades during rate changes and other big news events.
What Pairs are you in trades on? Price action usually setups up pretty well before NFP, so you can nearly work out what the results (Positive or Negative) will be by looking at PA.
Ok. Will do.
Thanks
adamjn,
Quite a few, actually. audcad, audjpy, nzdchf, chfjpy, eurusd. With the exception of the nzdchf, they are all profitable trades thus far.
Based on your post, seems that are you suggesting that one it looks like a legitimate PA setup is forming prior to the announcement, I can consider staying in the trade. Is that so?
CHFJPY, I have taken full profit, still in UJ, part profit taken, part profit taken on EU, part profit taken on AU, still in GU and NZDUSD and letting the rest run.
Yes, basically, unless you are trading H1, then you gota be careful of stop hunts when news is being released. But H4, if you look back through the charts, at NFP for example, you can see the day before price is already setting up.
adamjn,
thanks for that.
David
Can someone please explain to my why good figures out of the U.S and Canada apparently equals a weaker Canadian dollar vs the pound? This makes no sense to me…
Edit - oooops I missed a couple of the other figures for Cad which were negative…nevermind.
I can hear that crazy fool Benedict digging me a grave outside, we’ve given up with the Trader 60000 but I’m still not ready to join George P up there in that big trading party in the sky. If things don’t pick up, I’ll rent Benedicts room to someone else and have him sleep in the pit he’s just dug.
lol… who said people need to behave rational?
Anyone else having problems logging into FXCM online Trading Station? This has happened a few times recently and is very annoying… where you at Jason?
[QUOTE=“VVizlan;610356”]
lol… who said people need to behave rational?
Anyone else having problems logging into FXCM online Trading Station? This has happened a few times recently and is very annoying… where you at Jason?[/QUOTE]
Hi VVizlan
Sorry about the issues your having I don’t use FXCM so can’t comment. Hopefully you’ll get a reply soon.
Lol the markets seem very irrational at times, to be honest after the last few weeks I’ve had I feel my trading journey is coming to an end. Perhaps I’m just a bit frustrated but I would love to hear from an average person who has built a modest account up trading forex and is now making a living from it. I want to believe that this is possible but so far I’m yet to hear from one. If anyone does know a person like this, please forward that persons email address so I can ask how?
Very possible to make a living from trading, I just banked what would prob be a years wage for some… today.
Well, I’m pretty sure Krugman has done it. I’ve been demo trading for a year now and I’ve been where you’re at and will probably get there again.
No way is this thing easy… if it was everyone would be rich. I think the difference between successful traders and unsuccesful traders is the mindset. I honestly think that the proper mindset can start from a point of desparation and surrender. Meaning, we get get fed up with the pain and frustration and arrive at a point that we no longer are affected by winning or losing. A point of neutrality where we trust ourselves and accept the outcome of our decisions.
Good luck buddy, hang in there.
adamjn, perhaps you missed my question to you a few pages back, please respond, would love to learn from your thought process.
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/58037-price-action-matters-304.html#post610056
Congrats big guy though to be honest it helps to have the account funds of a popstar though to have the flex to add leverage to place big trades. I knew it your Ronan Ketting!!
:-o
Sorry mate, missed this post.
To be truthful, it just “didn’t look right” in my eyes. The pin bar formed kind of in the middle of that small zone, it was also under the MA.
So, it closed within the trendline, so I was just sitting on the sidelines as I didn’t want to buy, I wanted to get a sell. So, price started dropping off more, and usually, when a pin bar fails, price will grind to the end of the wick, form an IB, then break, so thats what I was waiting for, price to grind down, and form an IB. Usually, also after a trendline break (H4 closed outside trend line before taking out PB low) if an IB forms, it is a high probability trade.
Also, looking at the daily chart, it didn’t look like a healthy buy, I think these things just come to you over time, and you start to see things like this. Another thing, most people don’t pay much attention to, but it is the open and close. So, this candle closed lower than the open, and also broke the low of a different IB…
This is where “the other” PA thread goes to ****, as that would have been a flip zone, so it would have been a buy if the high broke, the market is more complex than that…
Mindset is the biggest part of trading, along with Money Management, only risk what you can AFFORD to loose, say you got 100k in the bank, and 50k in a trading account, for me, I would risk 5k per trade, say you have 1k in the bank and 500 in a trading account, risk no more than 10 per trade. It is what you can AFFORD to loose, not a %.
Mindset… if you can’t handle a loss, you will never make a profit, you will be trading on fear all the time, once you open a trade, if it hits the stop, that shouldn’t bother you as you can afford to loose it.
[QUOTE=“darthfrancis;610387”]
Congrats big guy though to be honest it helps to have the account funds of a popstar though to have the flex to add leverage to place big trades. I knew it your Ronan Ketting!!
:-o[/QUOTE]
This is very true, my question was has anyone started with a modest account and turned it into a full time profession. I may be wrong here but I am guessing that you started with a large amount of your own savings, but I’m curious whether you have made yearly gains on your investment?
Fixed $ Vs. Fixed% Trading Methodology
Wrote an in depth article a while back regarding the two thoughts on dollars vs percent, I would encourage anyone wanting a mathematical and practical look at the two to read through that article. In an effort to not put this thread in too small of a box I have kept the door open for both methods to be discussed here and won’t force either on members here. I personally use the % risk model as the trade off is a slightly slower account growth for a much lower rate of ruin, which is essentially how many losses you can take before you blow up your account. Also keeps you above water in the recovering losses as math again works against you in this manner. A 10% loss requires a 11% profit to make up, 50% loss requires 100% profit, and 90% loss requires %1000 profit. As you go deeper in the hole it becomes much more difficult to get out of it. I believe once you lose 30% of your account, you need to stop everything and analyse your strategy, after 30% the hill gets very steep. % risk keeps you above that 30% mark much longer.