Price Action That Matters

[krugman25]

High risk events for week of 3/9/14

[Henry9986]

Since nobody responded yet let me do so based on what I know.

Relatively (meaning comparing with its own past volumes and not with others) higher volumes mean big boys are in the game. That being the case we shd therefore view the price action (whether up, down, rejected, hold…) as revealed by the specific candle with importance.

Another aspect is the trend of the volumes over time. Increasing volumes mean there is power behind the price movement, whether it is up or down.

@Claus76

Hello Aaron and mates.

I missed some pages of this thread (for several reasons I didn’t read all pages… and now I’ve discovered that the true ‘quick nav’ is fixed in post #2 and not in page #2) and I’m sorry if following question was already discussed; in this case, please show me where you took about it.

Well. I need to ask you about how I should evaluate the high volume in relation of a key level.
In the graph attached, you can see EURCAD W1 which has a high volume on last week closure time where the price has tested the 1.53 level without any PA signal.

Detail…

This is my evaluation: this high volume range (with upward trend) shows that the price could increase in the next future; in other word, more investors have considered that EURCAD will increase its trend, because the price has tested the key level.

Another questions: when shall I consider the volume? Do I have any PA signals to associate the volume range or I can consider the volume with key level alone?

Please, could you tell me your view about ‘volume’?

I appreciate your contribution in this thread.

Bye.

Claudio

[Henry9986]

Hi Aaron

Wld you please take a look at the attached charts on EURCAD & GBPCAD?

There were bearish daily pin bars in both.

Pros:
They were on daily charts
Both were at significant resistance
Both protruded inside the resistance zone
EURCAD pin was larger than previous six candles;
Both candles had body less than 1/3 of candle size
GBPCAD pin closed below its open; EURCAD closed in lower 1/3 of the candle

Cons:
Both were countertrend
GBPCAD pin size was not large enough

Both pin low were broken. In hind sight we know the EURCAD pin failed. GBPCAD price has been meandering sideway & is creeping toward the tip of the wick.

Wld you have taken the trades? If so, how wld you have managed them? Thank you.

Henry

[darthfrancis]

Thanks again Aaron

I think the hardest part is staring up that mountain again knowing you’ve got a big climb just to get into profit. I would love to get so far in profit that I could enjoy the view from the top. Maybe one day!

One common theme I noticed with my failed daily TF trades were that most of them if not all formed on a Friday. Perhaps I need to go back to avoiding Friday daily signals.

Dude, thought we both agreed not to trading on fridays months ago… there may be your problem. Stick to monday-thursday, who wants to work 5 days a week anyway.

Darth

[Henry9986]

You are a good policeman? :35:

Dude, thought we both agreed not to trading on fridays months ago… there may be your problem. Stick to monday-thursday, who wants to work 5 days a week anyway.

Darth

[Panupat]

Both pairs hit the closest support. I took EURCAD and and support was a bit above your middle line. Once price reached that level I took some profit and move stoploss to BE. So I was out with a little profit.

[Panupat]

Dude, thought we both agreed not to trading on fridays months ago… there may be your problem. Stick to monday-thursday, who wants to work 5 days a week anyway.

Darth

I wanna make money 8 days a week!

[Henry9986]

I think BA took the GBPCAD trade. There was a large bullish pin bar on H4 which perhaps shd serve as warning to take profit.

Both pairs hit the closest support. I took EURCAD and and support was a bit above your middle line. Once price reached that level I took some profit and move stoploss to BE. So I was out with a little profit.

[darthfrancis]

You are a good policeman? :35:

No more like a slap in the face and a shot of expresso

[darthfrancis]

I wanna make money 8 days a week!

Why do 8 what you can do in 4. And even if you could do 8 days who said you would be winning at the end of it. Imagine a week where you lost 8day in a row… I’ll take the 4 days in a row any day of the week.

What can I say, I’m an optermistic pessimist ( no auto spell, so probably a typo there lol)

Darth

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

[QUOTE=“darthfrancis;610970”] Dude, thought we both agreed not to trading on fridays months ago… there may be your problem. Stick to monday-thursday, who wants to work 5 days a week anyway. Darth[/QUOTE]

Hey Darth

Your right! This is one of my mistakes, although I still don’t trade intraday on Fridays, I took a number of the signals on the daily time frames the following Monday. I have now gone back to ignoring the signals formed on a Friday.

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

[QUOTE=“Henry9986;610999”]I think BA took the GBPCAD trade. There was a large bullish pin bar on H4 which perhaps shd serve as warning to take profit. [/QUOTE] Hey Henry Yes I’m still in this GBPCAD trade taken from the daily time frame. Its an iffy one isn’t it? In hindsight I should not have taken this trade, it was a nice pin bar but against the tide. I now plan to only trade with the trend until I am back in profit. Let’s hope this one works out for us but we are against a very strong uptrend. So far resistance has held but it seems to be following a nice trend line which if it continues along will stop me out sooner or later.

[adamjn]

I pointed out a while back, when these setups developed that they would fail, it is a bad idea to trade into supportive areas, specially against the trend.

Hi Aaron

Wld you please take a look at the attached charts on EURCAD & GBPCAD?

There were bearish daily pin bars in both.

Pros:
They were on daily charts
Both were at significant resistance
Both protruded inside the resistance zone
EURCAD pin was larger than previous six candles;
Both candles had body less than 1/3 of candle size
GBPCAD pin closed below its open; EURCAD closed in lower 1/3 of the candle

Cons:
Both were countertrend
GBPCAD pin size was not large enough

Both pin low were broken. In hind sight we know the EURCAD pin failed. GBPCAD price has been meandering sideway & is creeping toward the tip of the wick.

Wld you have taken the trades? If so, how wld you have managed them? Thank you.

Henry

[Henry9986]

If you look back there were five occasions before the pin bar where price cld not break thru the resistance. There were also two instances where price turned away before hitting the same resistance. So, I think it ought to be a good location for the pin bar. Of course, does not mean it cannot fail. But so far it did not fail. Yet. Each of the two highs after the pin bar were lower than the high of the pin bar. It may be going your way now.

Hey Henry Yes I’m still in this GBPCAD trade taken from the daily time frame. Its an iffy one isn’t it? In hindsight I should not have taken this trade, it was a nice pin bar but against the tide. I now plan to only trade with the trend until I am back in profit. Let’s hope this one works out for us but we are against a very strong uptrend. So far resistance has held but it seems to be following a nice trend line which if it continues along will stop me out sooner or later.

[darthfrancis]

Hey Henry Yes I’m still in this GBPCAD trade taken from the daily time frame. Its an iffy one isn’t it? In hindsight I should not have taken this trade, it was a nice pin bar but against the tide. I now plan to only trade with the trend until I am back in profit. Let’s hope this one works out for us but we are against a very strong uptrend. So far resistance has held but it seems to be following a nice trend line which if it continues along will stop me out sooner or later.

i was in on the gbpcad and got stopped at breakeven, but if i set a conserative tp i would of banked 1.5%. like all trades the easy bit is getting the trade the hard bit is knowing when to exit. Also on the 4h chart you can see a REALLY BULLISH PB with huge volume on thursday. I should of seen this and closed out with some profit but ignored it. Sometimes you have to pay attention to the little things.

Darth

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

[QUOTE=“Henry9986;611068”]If you look back there were five occasions before the pin bar where price cld not break thru the resistance. There were also two instances where price turned away before hitting the same resistance. So, I think it ought to be a good location for the pin bar. Of course, does not mean it cannot fail. But so far it did not fail. Yet. Each of the two highs after the pin bar were lower than the high of the pin bar. It may be going your way now. [/QUOTE]

Hey Henry

Hope is not lost yet, your right, so far it has held well and the longer it holds the more chance things will go our way. I’ve decided to stick with my original plan with this one for better or for worse.

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

[QUOTE=“darthfrancis;611072”] i was in on the gbpcad and got stopped at breakeven, but if i set a conserative tp i would of banked 1.5%. like all trades the easy bit is getting the trade the hard bit is knowing when to exit. Also on the 4h chart you can see a REALLY BULLISH PB with huge volume on thursday. I should of seen this and closed out with some profit but ignored it. Sometimes you have to pay attention to the little things. Darth[/QUOTE] Hey Darth My exit plan is slightly less conservative, the reason for this is I’m looking for at least a 1 for 1 risk reward ratio and as the pin bar is quite large I’m ideally looking to get further than the first trouble area. In fact if I had originally aimed for the FTA I wouldn’t have entered this trade as the risk would far out weigh the reward. In hindsight I probably shouldn’t have taken this trade but as I’m already in it, I’m going to stick with my plan. Out of all the pin bars that formed on the CAD pairs this was my favourite and the only one I entered.

[Henry9986]

Yes, there was a huge bullish pin bar on H4 chart which shd prompt traders to exit. This is probably what Aaron called defensive trade management.

i was in on the gbpcad and got stopped at breakeven, but if i set a conserative tp i would of banked 1.5%. like all trades the easy bit is getting the trade the hard bit is knowing when to exit. Also on the 4h chart you can see a REALLY BULLISH PB with huge volume on thursday. I should of seen this and closed out with some profit but ignored it. Sometimes you have to pay attention to the little things.

Darth

[Henry9986]

Best wishes!

Hey Henry

Hope is not lost yet, your right, so far it has held well and the longer it holds the more chance things will go our way. I’ve decided to stick with my original plan with this one for better or for worse.

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

[QUOTE=“Henry9986;611078”]Yes, there was a huge bullish pin bar on H4 chart which shd prompt traders to exit. This is probably what Aaron called defensive trade management. [/QUOTE]

I agree that it doesn’t look good from the 4hr but I took this trade off of the daily time frame and should stick to this time frame for management. I could exit this trade now with a small loss but how would I feel if it then went my way. Bottom line is, I shouldn’t be in this trade but now I am I will stick with the plan.